Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

The impact of neighborhoods and friendships on interracial anxiety among medical students and residents: A report from the medical student CHANGES study

Objective

To examine the experience of interracial anxiety among health professionals and how it may affect the quality of their interactions with patients from racially marginalized populations. We explored the influence of prior interracial exposure—specifically through childhood neighborhoods, college student bodies, and friend groups—on interracial anxiety among medical students and residents. We also examined whether levels of interracial anxiety change from medical school through residency.

Data Source

Web-based longitudinal survey data from the Medical Student Cognitive Habits and Growth Evaluation Study.

Study Design

We used a retrospective longitudinal design with four observations for each trainee. The study population consisted of non-Black US medical trainees surveyed in their 1st and 4th years of medical school and 2nd and 3rd years of residency. Mixed effects longitudinal models were used to assess predictors of interracial anxiety and assess changes in interracial anxiety scores over time.

Principal Findings

In total, 3155 non-Black medical trainees were followed for 7 years. Seventy-eight percent grew up in predominantly White neighborhoods. Living in predominantly White neighborhoods and having less racially diverse friends were associated with higher levels of interracial anxiety among medical trainees. Trainees' interracial anxiety scores did not substantially change over time; interracial anxiety was highest in the 1st year of medical school, lowest in the 4th year, and increased slightly during residency.

Conclusions

Neighborhood and friend group composition had independent effects on interracial anxiety, indicating that premedical racial socialization may affect medical trainees' preparedness to interact effectively with diverse patient populations. Additionally, the lack of substantial change in interracial anxiety throughout medical training suggests the importance of providing curricular tools and structure (e.g., instituting interracial cooperative learning activities) to foster the development of healthy interracial relationships.     

Early intervention in myelofibrosis and impact on outcomes: A pooled analysis of the COMFORT-I and COMFORT-II studies

Background

In a pooled analysis of the phase 3 Controlled Myelofibrosis Study With Oral JAK Inhibitor Treatment I (COMFORT-I) and COMFORT-II clinical trials, adult patients with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis who received oral ruxolitinib at randomization or after crossover from placebo or best available therapy (BAT) had improved overall survival (OS).

Methods

This post hoc analysis of pooled COMFORT data examined relevant disease outcomes based on the disease duration (≤12 or >12 months from diagnosis) before ruxolitinib initiation.

Results

The analysis included 525 patients (ruxolitinib: ≤12 months, n = 84; >12 months, n = 216; placebo/BAT: ≤12 months, n = 66; >12 months, n = 159); the median age was 65.0–70.0 years. Fewer thrombocytopenia and anemia events were observed among patients who initiated ruxolitinib treatment earlier. At Weeks 24 and 48, the spleen volume response (SVR) was higher for patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (47.6% vs. 32.9% at Week 24, p = .0610; 44.0% vs. 26.9% at Week 48, p = .0149). In a multivariable analysis of factors associated with spleen volume reduction, a logistic regression model that controlled for confounding factors found that a significantly greater binary reduction was observed among patients with shorter versus longer disease duration (p = .022). At Week 240, OS was significantly improved among patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (63% [95% CI, 51%‒73%] vs. 57% [95% CI, 49%‒64%]; hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.01‒2.31; p = .0430). Regardless of disease duration, a longer OS was observed for patients who received ruxolitinib versus those who received placebo/BAT.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that earlier ruxolitinib initiation for adult patients with intermediate-2 and high-risk myelofibrosis may improve clinical outcomes, including fewer cytopenia events, durable SVR, and prolonged OS.

Plain Language Summary

• Patients with myelofibrosis, a bone marrow cancer, often do not live as long as the general population. These patients may also have an enlarged spleen and difficult symptoms such as fatigue.
• Two large clinical trials showed that patients treated with the drug ruxolitinib lived longer and had improved symptoms compared to those treated with placebo or other standard treatments.
• Here it was examined whether starting treatment with ruxolitinib earlier (i.e., within a year of diagnosis) provided benefits versus delaying treatment.
• Patients who received ruxolitinib within a year of diagnosis lived longer and experienced fewer disease symptoms than those whose treatment was delayed.