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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of a major health problem worldwide. Tuberculosis vaccine research has made an extraordinary progress over the past few years. However, there is still no replacement for the Bacillus Calmette‐Guérin vaccine, the only TB vaccine licensed for human use. Therefore, the discovery and development of new TB vaccines remains a priority. This article discusses current strategies used to diversify TB vaccines and includes discussion of the status of efforts to improve protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M tb) infection or TB disease by developing new and safe TB vaccines. This article also highlights the current research efforts in immune‐enhancing approaches to improve vaccination efficacy. The development of more effective TB vaccines might have significant impact on global TB control.  相似文献   
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Melatonin receptors play important roles in the regulation of circadian and seasonal rhythms, sleep, retinal functions, the immune system, depression, and type 2 diabetes development. Melatonin receptors are approved drug targets for insomnia, non‐24‐hour sleep‐wake disorders, and major depressive disorders. In mammals, two melatonin receptors (MTRs) exist, MT1 and MT2, belonging to the G protein‐coupled receptor (GPCR) superfamily. Similar to most other GPCRs, reliable antibodies recognizing melatonin receptors proved to be difficult to obtain. Here, we describe the development of the first monoclonal antibodies (mABs) for mouse MT1 and MT2. Purified antibodies were extensively characterized for specific reactivity with mouse, rat, and human MT1 and MT2 by Western blot, immunoprecipitation, immunofluorescence, and proximity ligation assay. Several mABs were specific for either mouse MT1 or MT2. None of the mABs cross‐reacted with rat MTRs, and some were able to react with human MTRs. The specificity of the selected mABs was validated by immunofluorescence microscopy in three established locations (retina, suprachiasmatic nuclei, pituitary gland) for MTR expression in mice using MTR‐KO mice as control. MT2 expression was not detected in mouse insulinoma MIN6 cells or pancreatic beta‐cells. Collectively, we report the first monoclonal antibodies recognizing recombinant and native mouse melatonin receptors that will be valuable tools for future studies.  相似文献   
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Increasing evidence suggests that human epidermal melanocytes play an important role in the skin immune system; however, a role of their pigmentation in immune and inflammatory responses is poorly examined. In the study, the expression of Toll‐like receptor 4 (TLR4) and inflammatory cytokines and chemokines by cultured normal melanocytes derived from lightly and darkly pigmented skin was investigated after cell stimulation with lipopolysaccharide (LPS). The basal TLR4 mRNA level in heavily pigmented cells was higher as compared to their lightly pigmented counterparts. Melanocyte exposure to LPS upregulated the expression of TLR4 mRNA and enhanced the DNA‐binding activity of NF‐κB p50 and p65. We found substantial differences in the LPS‐stimulated expression of numerous genes encoding inflammatory cytokines and chemokines between the cells with various melanin contents. In lightly pigmented melanocytes, the most significantly upregulated genes were nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT/visfatin), the chemokines CCL2 and CCL20, and IL6, while the genes for CXCL12, IL‐16 and the chemokine receptor CCR4 were the most significantly upregulated in heavily pigmented cells. Moreover, the lightly pigmented melanocytes secreted much more NAMPT, CCL2 and IL‐6. The results of our study suggest modulatory effect of melanogenesis on the immune properties of normal epidermal melanocytes.  相似文献   
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Abstract

Objectives: This study examined word use as an indicator of interpersonal positive reframing in daily conversations of couples coping with breast cancer and as a predictor of stress.

Design: The Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR) and Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) were used to examine naturally occurring word use conceptually linked to positive reframing (positive emotion, negative emotion, and cognitive processing words).

Sample: Fifty-two couples coping with breast cancer.

Methods: Couples wore the EAR, a device participants wear, that audio-recorded over one weekend (>16,000 sound files), and completed self-reports of positive reframing (COPE) and stress (Perceived Stress Scale). LIWC, a software program, measured word use.

Findings: Both partners’ word use (i.e., positive emotion and cognitive processing words) was associated with their own reported positive reframing, and spouses’ word use was also indicative of patients’ positive reframing. Results also revealed that, in general, words indicating positive reframing predicted lower levels of stress.

Conclusions: Findings supported the hypothesis that partners—and particularly spouses of breast cancer patients—may assist each other’s coping by positively reframing the cancer experience and other negative experiences in conversation.  相似文献   
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