Nonproportional hazards and unobserved heterogeneity in clustered survival data: When can we tell the difference?

Multivariate survival data are frequently encountered in biomedical applications in the form of clustered failures (or recurrent events data). A popular way of analyzing such data is by using shared frailty models, which assume that the proportional hazards assumption holds conditional on an unobserved cluster-specific random effect. Such models are often incorporated in more complicated joint models in survival analysis. If the random effect distribution has finite expectation, then the conditional proportional hazards assumption does not carry over to the marginal models. It has been shown that, for univariate data, this makes it impossible to distinguish between the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (eg, due to missing covariates) and marginal nonproportional hazards. We show that time-dependent covariate effects may falsely appear as evidence in favor of a frailty model also in the case of clustered failures or recurrent events data, when the cluster size or number of recurrent events is small. When true unobserved heterogeneity is present, the presence of nonproportional hazards leads to overestimating the frailty effect. We show that this phenomenon is somewhat mitigated as the cluster size grows. We carry out a simulation study to assess the behavior of test statistics and estimators for frailty models in such contexts. The gamma, inverse Gaussian, and positive stable shared frailty models are contrasted using a novel software implementation for estimating semiparametric shared frailty models. Two main questions are addressed in the contexts of clustered failures and recurrent events: whether covariates with a time-dependent effect may appear as indication of unobserved heterogeneity and whether the additional presence of unobserved heterogeneity can be detected in this case. Finally, the practical implications are illustrated in a real-world data analysis example.     

Outcome of isolated posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction at mean 6.3-year follow up: a consecutive case series

Objectives: There is a paucity of reporting on surgical outcomes of isolated posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (PCLR). We hypothesize that isolated PCL injuries failing nonoperative treatment achieve good outcomes and are able to return to sport following PCLR.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed to identify patients with isolated PCL injuries that underwent reconstruction between 2001 and 2014. Patients with multi-ligamentous injury or another concomitant knee pathology were excluded. Medical records were reviewed for demographic, clinical and operative data. Patients were contacted for administration of a telephone-based questionnaire which included the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) Subjective Knee Evaluation form, Lysholm-Tegner scales, Marx activity scale (MAS), return to sport status, and patient satisfaction instruments.

Results: A total of 15 isolated PCL reconstructions in 14 patients with a mean age of 27.5 years (range 17–43) met the study inclusion criteria; mean follow up was 6.3 years (range 1.4–15.2). Pre-operatively, the primary complaint was knee instability in all patients; on physical examination, lack of a firm end point during posterior drawer testing was found in 93% (14/15) of the knees. In total, 12 of 15 knees underwent transtibial, single-bundle PCLR and three of 15 underwent tibial inlay, double bundle PCLR. Graft types included: quadriceps autograft (7/15), Achilles allograft (6/15), and hamstring autograft (2/15). There were no graft failures in our patient cohort. At most recent follow up the mean scores respectively on the IKDC form, Lysholm-Tegner scales and MAS were (standard deviation): 77.3 (16.5), 83.1 (17.9), 6.13 (2.6), and 7.1 (6.0). All fourteen patients were athletes prior to their injury and 79% (11/14) returned to sport and overall patient satisfaction was 9.2/10.

Conclusions: Isolated PCLR provides good outcomes at mean medium-term follow up with restoration of function, high rate of return to sport and overall patient satisfaction.     

Inhibitors of the Hepatitis C Virus Polymerase; Mode of Action and Resistance

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a pandemic human pathogen posing a substantial health and economic burden in both developing and developed countries. Controlling the spread of HCV through behavioural prevention strategies has met with limited success and vaccine development remains slow. The development of antiviral therapeutic agents has also been challenging, primarily due to the lack of efficient cell culture and animal models for all HCV genotypes, as well as the large genetic diversity between HCV strains. On the other hand, the use of interferon-α-based treatments in combination with the guanosine analogue, ribavirin, achieved limited success, and widespread use of these therapies has been hampered by prevalent side effects. For more than a decade, the HCV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) has been targeted for antiviral development. Direct acting antivirals (DAA) have been identified which bind to one of at least six RdRp inhibitor-binding sites, and are now becoming a mainstay of highly effective and well tolerated antiviral treatment for HCV infection. Here we review the different classes of RdRp inhibitors and their mode of action against HCV. Furthermore, the mechanism of antiviral resistance to each class is described, including naturally occurring resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in different viral strains and genotypes. Finally, we review the impact of these RAVs on treatment outcomes with the newly developed regimens.     

Immune checkpoint inhibitor-induced inflammatory arthritis: identification and management

ABSTRACT

Introduction

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have proved to be groundbreaking in the field of oncology. However, immune system overactivation from ICIs has introduced a novel medical entity known as immune-related adverse events (irAEs), that can affect any organ or tissue. ICI-induced inflammatory arthritis (ICI-IIA) is the most common musculoskeletal irAE and can lead to significant morbidity and limitation in anti-cancer therapy.     

The detection and management of complications following the treatment of liver metastases

While once considered as incurable systemic disease, treatment options for liver metastases have increased over the last 30 years and safety has improved dramatically, such that for a selected group of patients the hope of cure can now be offered with radical treatment, and low morbidity interventions can be offered which prolong survival, even in patients with more widely disseminated disease. Advances have been made in selection and surgical technique for liver resection and several adjuncts to resection now exist in the form of portal vein embolization, thermal ablation and targeted drug or radiotherapy delivery options. A natural consequence of these developments has been the delivery of services within fewer specialist units, with the result that later complications of therapy may present to local hospitals, rather than directly to the specialist centres. This article will describe the current common liver-directed therapies and outline the presentation and management of their complications.