Comparison of static and dynamic models of maternal immunization to prevent infant pertussis in Brazil

BackgroundThis paper compares cost-effectiveness results from two models of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in Brazil, one static, one dynamic, to explore when static models are adequate for public health decisions and when the extra effort required by dynamic models is worthwhile.MethodsWe defined two scenarios to explore key differences between static and dynamic models, herd immunity and time horizon. Scenario 1 evaluates the incremental cost/DALY of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization as routine infant vaccination coverage ranges from low/moderate up to, and above, the threshold at which herd immunity begins to eliminate pertussis. Scenario 2 compares cost-effectiveness estimates over the models’ different time horizons. Maternal vaccine prices of $9.55/dose (base case) and $1/dose were evaluated.ResultsThe dynamic model shows that maternal immunization could be cost-saving as well as life-saving at low levels of infant vaccination coverage. When infant coverage reaches the threshold range (90–95%), it is expensive: the dynamic model estimates that maternal immunization costs $2 million/DALY at infant coverage > 95% and maternal vaccine price of $9.55/dose; at $1/dose, cost/DALY is $200,000. By contrast, the static model estimates costs/DALY only modestly higher at high than at low infant coverage. When the models’ estimates over their different time horizons are compared at infant coverage < 90–95%, their projections fall in the same range.ConclusionsStatic models may serve to explore an intervention’s cost-effectiveness against infectious disease: the direction and principal drivers of change were the same in both models. When, however, an intervention too small to have significant herd immunity effects itself, such as maternal aP immunization, takes place against a background of vaccination in the rest of the population, a dynamic model is crucial to accurate estimates of cost-effectiveness. This finding is particularly important in the context of widely varying routine infant vaccination rates globally.Clinical Trial registryClinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.     

Cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization: Implications of a dynamic transmission model for low- and middle-income countries

ObjectiveThis study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization in low- and middle-income countries using a dynamic transmission model.MethodsWe developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the impact of infant vaccination with whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine with and without maternal aP immunization. The model was calibrated to Brazilian surveillance data and then used to project health outcomes and costs under alternative strategies in Brazil, and, after adjusting model parameter values to reflect their conditions, in Nigeria and Bangladesh. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness is incremental cost (2014 USD) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY).ResultsThe dynamic model shows that maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in Brazil, a middle-income country, under the base-case assumptions, but would be very expensive at infant vaccination coverage in and above the threshold range necessary to eliminate the disease (90–95%). At 2007 infant coverage (DTP1 90%, DTP3 61% at 1 year of age), maternal immunization would cost < $4,000 per DALY averted. At high infant coverage, such as Brazil in 1996 (DTP1 94%, DTP3 74% at 1 year), cost/DALY increases to $1.27 million. When the model’s time horizon was extended from 2030 to 2100, cost/DALY increased under both infant coverage levels, but more steeply with high coverage. The results were moderately sensitive to discount rate, maternal vaccine price, and maternal aP coverage and were robust using the 100 best-fitting parameter sets. Scenarios representing low-income countries showed that maternal aP immunization could be cost-saving in countries with low infant coverage, such as Nigeria, but very expensive in countries, such as Bangladesh, with high infant coverage.ConclusionA dynamic model, which captures the herd immunity benefits of pertussis vaccination, shows that, in low- and middle-income countries, maternal aP immunization is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate, even cost-saving when it is low, but not cost-effective when coverage levels pass 90–95%.     

Occupational class and ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States and 11 European countries.

OBJECTIVES: Twelve countries were compared with respect to occupational class differences in ischemic heart disease mortality in order to identify factors that are associated with smaller or larger mortality differences. METHODS: Data on mortality by occupational class among men aged 30 to 64 years were obtained from national longitudinal or cross-sectional studies for the 1980s. A common occupational class scheme was applied to most countries. Potential effects of the main data problems were evaluated quantitatively. RESULTS: A north-south contrast existed within Europe. In England and Wales, Ireland, and Nordic countries, manual classes had higher mortality rates than nonmanual classes. In France, Switzerland, and Mediterranean countries, manual classes had mortality rates as low as, or lower than, those among nonmanual classes. Compared with Northern Europe, mortality differences in the United States were smaller (among men aged 30-44 years) or about as large (among men aged 45-64 years). CONCLUSIONS: The results underline the highly variable nature of socioeconomic inequalities in ischemic heart disease mortality. These inequalities appear to be highly sensitive to social gradients in behavioral risk factors. These risk factor gradients are determined by cultural as well as socioeconomic developments.     

Income inequality and homicide rates in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: This study determined the effect of income inequality on homicide rates in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study at 2 geographical levels, municipalities in the state of Rio de Janeiro and administrative regions in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The association between homicide and income inequality was tested by multiple regression procedures, with adjustment for other socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: For the municipalities of Rio de Janeiro State, no association between homicide and income concentration was found an outcome that can be explained by the municipalities' different degrees of urbanization. However, for the administrative regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, the 2 income inequality indicators were strongly correlated with the outcome variable (P < .01). Higher homicide rates were found precisely in the sector of the city that has the greatest concentration of slum residents and the highest degree of income inequality. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that social policies specifically aimed at low-income urban youth, particularly programs to reduce the harmful effects of relative deprivation, may have an important impact on the homicide rate.     

Income inequality and health: the case of Rio de Janeiro

This ecological analysis addresses the association between income inequality and health status in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Data were analyzed using geo-processing and multiple regression techniques. The following health indicators were used: infant mortality rate; standardized mortality rate; life expectancy at birth; and homicide rate among 15-29-year-old males. Patterns of income inequality were assessed through income distribution indicators: Gini index, Robin Hood index, and top 10 %/bottom 40% average income ratio. The results indicate significant correlations between income distribution indicators and health indicators, providing additional empirical evidence of the association between health status and income inequality. For the homicide rate, the effect of the indicator "density of slum residents" was also relevant, suggesting that further deterioration in health standards may be due to social disruption of deprived communities and the resultant increase in criminal activity. The geo-epidemiological analysis presented here highlights the association between adverse health outcomes and residential concentration of poverty. Social policies focused on slum residents are needed to reduce the harmful effects of relative deprivation.     

COVID-19 Treatment: Drug Safety Prior to Conception and During Pregnancy and Breastfeeding

In December 2019, a new viral respiratory infection known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in the city of Wuhan, China. COVID-19 quickly spread across the world, leading the World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The disease is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a similar virus to those involved in other epidemics such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Epidemiological studies have shown that COVID-19 frequently affects young adults of reproductive age and that the elderly and patients with chronic disease have high mortality rates. Little is known about the impact of COVID-19 on pregnancy and breastfeeding. Most COVID-19 cases present with mild flu-like symptoms and only require treatment with symptomatic relief medications, whereas other cases with COVID-19 require treatment in an intensive care unit. There is currently no specific effective treatment for COVID-19. A large number of drugs are being used to fight infection by SARS-CoV-2. Experience with this therapeutic arsenal has been gained over the years in the treatment of other viral, autoimmune, parasitic, and bacterial diseases. Importantly, the search for an effective treatment for COVID-19 cannot expose pregnant women infected with SARS-CoV-2 to the potential teratogenic risks of these drugs. Therefore, it is necessary to determine and understand the safety of anti-COVID-19 therapies prior to conception and during pregnancy and breastfeeding.Key words: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, antiviral, pregnancy, breastfeeding     

Encephalopathy with focal lesions due to Mycoplasma pneumoniae

Mycoplasma pneumoniae infections usually produce respiratory symptoms, that only exceptionally involve the nervous system. In this case, the infection generally causes an encephalitic picture characterized by impaired consciousness and seizures, and by normal or non-specific neuroradiological findings. However, four cases of M. pneumoniae infection associated with symmetrical lesions in the putamen and its external surrounding areas, and with extrapiramidal symptoms, have been recently published. We present the case of a patient with a clinical picture characterized by confusion, fever, and seizures, associated with a M. pneumoniae infection. The MRI study showed two symmetrical lesions that involved the areas just outside the putamen and disappeared coinciding with her clinical improvement. The present case would support that the encephalopathy associated with the M. pneumoniae infection shows a tendency to involve a particular region of the brain. Our case might represent the minimal expression of these characteristic lesions, which in the most benign cases would involve the areas immediately outside the putamen, and in other instances the putamen as well.