Further statistics in dentistry. Part 9: Bayesian statistics

Statistics can be defined as the methods used to assimilate data, so that guidance can be given, and conclusions drawn, in situations which involve uncertainty. In particular, statistical inference is concerned with drawing conclusions about particular aspects of a population when that population cannot be studied in full. Uncertainty arises here because the totality of the information is not available. Instead, to make inferences about the population, it is necessary to rely on a sample of data which is selected from the population; this sample data may be augmented, in certain circumstances, by auxiliary information which is obtained independently of the sample data. Clearly, uncertainty lies at the heart of statistics and statistical inference. This uncertainty is measured by a probability which therefore forms the crux of statistics and must be properly understood in order to interpret a statistical analysis.     

Can general anaesthesia be used for the Paralytic Shellfish Poison bioassay?

The current method for Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) testing in shellfish is based on the mouse bioassay (MBA), which involves injecting shellfish extract into a conscious mouse, and then converting its time to death into PSP toxicity using Sommer's table. To improve animal welfare, the present study investigated the use of anaesthesia. A saxitoxin (STX) calibration study was conducted where known amounts of STX were injected into both unanaesthetised and anaesthetised mice. Death time was approximately doubled when mice were anaesthetised. Both unanaesthetised and anaesthetised animals showed a linear relationship between the inverse death time and log(STX). Based on these data, new calibration curves were developed. This study revealed that the current method employing Sommer's table underestimates toxicity by up to 50% for higher toxin levels. Subsequently, shellfish samples were tested on both unanaesthetised and anaesthetised mice. Using the new calibration curves, the numbers of samples exceeding the field closure limit were similar for unanaesthetised and anaesthetised mice, and were nearly two-fold higher than those obtained with the current method. The studies showed that the bioassay gives variable results for both unanaesthetised and anaesthetised animals. Anaesthesia forms a viable and more ethical alternative to the current bioassay, at least in the short term. A practical summary on how to conduct this method is given.     

The alpha1-adrenergic antagonist prazosin ameliorates combat trauma nightmares in veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder: a report of 4 cases

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system (CNS) adrenergic hyperresponsiveness may be involved in the pathophysiology of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Two Vietnam combat veterans with PTSD prescribed the centrally active alpha1-adrenergic antagonist prazosin for symptoms of benign prostatic hypertrophy unexpectedly reported elimination of combat trauma nightmares. This observation prompted an open-label feasibility trial of prazosin for combat trauma nightmares in chronic combat-induced PTSD. METHOD: Four consecutively identified combat veterans with chronic DSM-IV PTSD and severe intractable combat trauma nightmares participated in an 8-week open trial of escalating-dose prazosin. Nightmare severity response was rated using the nightmare item of the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale and the Clinical Global Impressions-Change scale. RESULTS: The 2 patients who achieved a daily prazosin dose of at least 5 mg were markedly improved, with complete elimination of trauma nightmares and resumption of normal dreaming. The 2 subjects limited to 2 mg of prazosin to avoid excessive blood pressure reduction were moderately improved with at least 50% reduction in nightmare severity. CONCLUSION: These clinical observations, together with neurobiological evidence for alpha1-adrenergic regulation of CNS neurobiological systems relevant to PTSD, provide rationale for placebo-controlled trials of prazosin for PTSD combat trauma nightmares.     

Contractile properties and fatigue of quadriceps muscles in multiple sclerosis

Functional characteristics of electrically stimulated quadriceps muscles of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) were determined to investigate whether adaptations in muscle properties contribute to the higher fatigability of these patients. The estimated maximal isometric force generating capacity of MS patients was only 11.2% (P < 0.05) lower than control subjects. However, the patients were only able to voluntarily exert 75 +/- 22% (n = 12) of their maximal capacity, against 94 +/- 6% (n = 7) for the control subjects. There were no differences in muscle speed, suggesting that muscle fiber distribution was not different in the MS patients due to reduced muscle usage. During a series of repeated contractions, greater decrements occurred in isometric force and in maximal rate of force rise in the MS patients (by 31.3 +/- 10.3% and 50.1 +/- 10.0%, respectively; n = 13) than control subjects (23.8 +/- 6.6% and 39.0 +/- 8.1%, n = 15), suggesting a lower oxidative capacity. The results indicate that increasing the mass of their muscles by training may help to reduce the excessive muscle fatigue of MS patients.     

Plasma antioxidant vitamins, chronic hepatitis B virus infection and urinary aflatoxin B1-DNA adducts in healthy males

Epidemiological evidence indicates that aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) intake is associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The hepatocarcinogenesis is initiated by covalent binding of AFB1 to cellular DNA. To determine whether nutritional factors and hormonal status may influence the binding of AFB1 to hepatic DNA, a cross- sectional study was performed on a total of 42 male asymptomatic hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers and 43 male non-carriers in a cohort study on the multistage development of HCC in Taiwan. The major AFB1-DNA adduct in vivo, AFB1-N7-guanine, was measured by high- performance liquid chromatography in urine. Urinary AFB1-N7-guanine was detectable in 40% of the subjects. HBsAg carriers had a higher detection rate of urinary AFB1-DNA adducts than non-carriers and the difference was statistically significant after multivariate adjustment. After taking into account the total AFB1 urinary metabolite level, chronic HBsAg carrier status, and other potential confounders, plasma levels of cholesterol, alpha-tocopherol, and alpha- and beta-carotene were positively associated with the detection rate of the AFB1-DNA adducts in a dose-dependent manner, whereas plasma lycopene level was inversely related to the presence of the adducts in urine. The association of urinary AFB1-DNA adducts with the plasma levels of cholesterol, alpha-tocopherol, lycopene, and alpha- and beta-carotene was observed at both low and high exposure levels of AFB1. There was a synergistic interaction of plasma alpha-tocopherol with alpha- and beta- carotene on the adduct levels. No association with the adducts was found for plasma levels of retinol and testosterone. This study demonstrated different associations of antioxidant vitamins with AFB1- DNA adduct formation. The data consistent with our previous finding in cultured woodchuck hepatocytes that alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene enhanced AFB1-DNA adduct formation suggest that prospective investigation of the relationship between plasma micronutrients and risk of AFB1-related HCC is warranted.      

Temporal and individual variations in the dose of glucocorticoid used for the treatment of salt-losing congenital virilizing adrenal hyperplasia due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency

The dose of glucocorticoid was evaluated in the treatment of 19 patients with salt-losing congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to complete or nearly complete 21-hydroxylase deficiency. In most cases, follow-up was from infancy to puberty. The dose of steroid was expressed as oral cortisol (mg/m² body surface area 124 hours); the equivalent doses of the various glucocorticoid preparations was as follows: 100 mg oral cortisol = 120 mg oral cortisone acetate = 25 mg oral prednisone = 50 mg intramuscular cortisol = 60 mg intramuscular cortisone acetate. The dose of glucocorticoid producing good laboratory and clinical control varied significantly with age. The dose fell from 26 mg/m²/24 hours in early infancy to 19 mg/m²/24 hours between 6 and 8 years of age, and then rose to 23–24 mglm²/hour in adolescence. In addition to these age-related changes, there were large individual variations at each age. Indeed, the values from 4 of the 19 patients were not included in the calculation of the mean because they were more than 3 SD either above or below the mean. For the rest of the patients, the coefficient of variation ranged from 14.5% to 37.2%. It is concluded that glucocorticoid therapy must be adjusted carefully to the age and needs of each patient.     

Prevalence of behaviour disorders in low birthweight infants

OBJECTIVE--To determine the prevalence of behaviour disorders in low birthweight infants. DESIGN--Children of birth weight < or = 2000 g born to mothers resident in Merseyside in 1980-1 assessed using the Rutter parent and teacher behaviour questionnaires and the Conner modification of the Rutter teacher questionnaire. Children attending normal schools were assessed with controls matched for age, sex, and class in school. Children attending special schools were assessed unmatched. SUBJECTS--233 matched case-control pairs attending normal primary schools and 46 unmatched children attending special schools. SETTING--Primary and special schools. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Emotional, conduct, and undifferentiated behaviour disorders and hyperactivity. RESULTS--On the parental questionnaire screen, 36% of the cases and 22% of the controls had a behaviour disorder and on the teacher questionnaire the proportions were 27% and 12% respectively. Hyperactivity was significantly more common among male cases than their controls (21% v 5.0%) but differed little among female cases and controls (9% v 7%). CONCLUSIONS--Improving neonatal survival of low birthweight infants is accompanied by a higher prevalence of behaviour disorders. The long term implications for psychiatric morbidity and other adult disease must be monitored.