Predicting survival and recurrence in localized melanoma: A multivariate approach

Several clinical and pathologic factors appear to affect melanoma recurrence and survival. While much attention has been directed at identifying prognostic factors, few researchers have developed predictive models for survival and recurrence. Two major clinical questions are of interest in the management of melanoma: 1) what is the patient's chance of surviving for a given period, e.g., 5 or 10 years, after diagnosis of melanoma; and 2) after a patient has been disease free for a period of time, e.g., 5 years, what is his or her chance of melanoma recurrence or death in the following interval, e.g., 5 years or 10 years. In this paper, a generalized multivariate prognostic model to address both of these clinical questions is presented.Tables of the estimated probabilities of melanoma recurrence and death for prognostic subgroups are shown to facilitate prediction of an individual patient's outcome. The model was based on a database of 4,568 patients with localized melanoma, one of the largest melanoma databases in the world with detailed clinical and pathologic information, and long-term follow-up. Tumor thickness at diagnosis was the single most important prognostic factor for all outcomes. Tumor ulceration, Clark's level, lesion location, and sex had an impact on overall survival from diagnosis for some of the subgroups defined by tumor thickness. Tumor thickness at diagnosis was strongly indicative of melanoma recurrence and death even after a disease free interval of 2, 5, or 10 years. Lesion location and ulceration were of prognostic importance after disease free intervals up to 5 years, but their impact on melanoma recurrence and death diminished after longer disease free intervals.Prediction models for melanoma outcome at diagnosis and after a disease free period can provide useful information to clinicians in the management of melanoma patients. Utilization of the model will be valuable in identifying patients at high risk for melanoma recurrence and death.

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Resumen Diversos factores clínicos y patológicos parecen afectar las tasas de recurrencia y mortalidad del melanoma. En tanto que se ha dispensado bastante atención en cuanto a identificar factores de pronóstico, pocos investigadores han desarrollado modelos de predicción de sobrevida y de recurrencia. Dos interrogantes principales son de interés en cuanto al manejo del melanoma: 1) cual es la probabilidad del paciente de sobrevivir un determinado período, por ejemplo 5 o 10 años, después del diagnóstico de melanoma; y 2) después de que el paciente se ha mantenido libre de enfermedad por un período de tiempo, por ejemplo 5 años, cual es su probabilidad de recurrencia del melanoma o de muerte en el siguiente período de tiempo, por ejemplo 5 o 10 años. En este artículo se presenta un modelo generalizado y multivariable de pronóstico para enfrentar estos interrogantes clínicos.Se presentan tablas para estimar las probabilidades de recurrencia y de muerte en divesos subgrupos de pronóstico que facilitan la predicción del destino final de un individuo. El modelo se fundamentó en una base de datos de 4568 pacientes con melanomas localizado, una de las más grandes bases de datos de melanoma existentes en el mundo, con detallada información clínica y patológica y con seguimiento a largo plazo. El espesor del tumor en el momento del diagnóstico apareció como el factor individual de pronóstico de mayor importancia. La ulceración del tumor, el nivel de Clark, la ubicación de la lesión y el sexo exhibieron importancia en cuanto a la sobrevida para algunos de los subgrupos definidos según el espesor del tumor. El espesor del tumor en el momento del diagnóstico fue un factor fuertemente indicativo de recurrencia y de muerte, aún después de un intervalo libre de enfermedad de 2, 5 o 10 años. La ubicación de la lesión y la ulceración aparecieron como de importancia en cuanto el pronóstico después de intervalos libres de enfermedad hasta de 5 años, pero tal importancia disminuyó después de intervalos libres de enfermedad de mayor duración.Los modelos de predicción del resultado final en el melanoma aplicados en el momento del diagnóstico y después de un período libre de enfermedad pueden proveer información útil para el manejo clínico de pacientes con melanomas. La utilización del modelo es de valor en la identificación de pacientes con mayor riesgo de recurrencia y muerte por melanoma.

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Résumé Plusieurs facteurs cliniques et anatomopathologiques semblent déterminer la récidive et la survie des mélanomes. De nombreux auteurs se sont intéressés à l'identidification des facteurs de pronostic, mais peu d'équipes ont essayé d'élaborer un modèle permettant de prédire survie et récidive. Deux problèmes restent à résoudre dans le traitement des mélanomes: 1) quelles sont les chances de survie après le diagnostic de mélanome pour un patient donné, pendant une période donnée, par exemple 5 à 10 ans et 2) quels sont les risques de récidive ou de décès dans les 5 à 10 ans qui suivent une période donnée (par exemple 5 ans) où un patient semblait en rémission. Dans cet article, nous avons créé un modèle d'évaluation pronostique multifactorielle pour tenter de répondre à ces 2 questions.Des tables montrant les probabilités de récidive et de décès par mélanome, calculées à partir de sous groupes différents, peuvent aider à déterminer le pronostic. Ce modèle repose sur une banque de données de 4568 patients atteints de mélanome non disséminé. Il s'agit d'une des plus grandes banques de données au monde contenant des informations cliniques, anatomopathologiques et sur l'évolution à long terme. L'épaisseur de la tumeur au moment du diagnostic était le facteur pronostic le plus important pour déterminer l'évolution. Le caractère ulcéré, le stade de Clark, la localisation de la lésion et le sexe avaient tous une importance pronostique, influant sur la survie globale liée à l'épaisseur de la tumeur. L'importance de l'épaisseur de la tumeur au moment du diagnostic était un facteur de récidive et mortalité même après un intervalle long de 2, 5 ou 10 ans. Le site de la tumeur et son caractère ulcéré étaient également des facteurs associés à un risque de récidive tumorale ou de décès après une rémission de 5 ans. L'influence de ces facteurs diminuait en cas de rémission plus prolongée.Les modèles permettant d'évaluer l'évolution du mélanome malin au moment du diagnostic et apreès un intervalle de rémission sont utiles au cours du traitement du mélanome. Ils doivent permettre d'identifier les patients à risque de récidive et de décès.

     

Kupffer cell modulation of the systemic immune response

The effects of global hepatic injury and of Kupffer cell activation on systemic immunity were studied in an in vivo rat model, using the diameters of the delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) response to keyhole limpet hemocyanin and of a subcutaneous Staphylococcus aureus abscess as measures of systemic immunoresponsiveness. Hepatic injury with carbon tetrachloride resulted in significant suppression of the DTH score (5.5 +/- 0.7 vs 8.8 +/- 0.8 mm). Kupffer cell activation with intraportal Escherichia coli was likewise suppressive (DTH score, 4.4 +/- 0.5 vs 6.1 +/- 0.4 mm for animals receiving systemic E coli); the magnitude of this suppression correlated with the numbers of organisms extracted by the liver. Conversely, Kupffer cell ablation with carrageenan lessened the immunosuppressive effects of anesthesia and surgery (DTH score, 8.5 +/- 0.9 vs 6.8 +/- 0.6 mm for controls; S aureus abscess, 4.1 +/- 0.4 vs 5.7 +/- 0.4 mm for controls). These results indicate that Kupffer cells can modulate the systemic immune response and suggest that gram-negative portal bacteremia with resultant Kupffer cell activation may contribute to the immunologic derangements characteristic of trauma and critical surgical illness.     

Detection of Human T-Lymphotropic Virus (HTLV) tax Sequences in New York City Blood Donors Seronegative for HTLV Types 1 and 2

A potential public health concern is the reported detection of the human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) tax gene in the lymphocytes of up to 11% of a low-risk group of New York City blood donors (NYBD). This study aimed to independently confirm the prevalence of HTLV tax sequences in 293 NYBD. All NYBD tested negative for antibodies to HTLV types 1 and 2 and HTLV Tax. HTLV tax sequences were not detected in the NYBD lymphocytes. These data demonstrate the lack of HTLV-1 tax in this group of NYBD at low risk for HTLV infection.     

Biological correlates of deliberate self-harm behaviour: a study of electroencephalographic,biochemical and psychological variables in parasuicide

Clinical, electroencephalographic and biochemical variables were measured in 40 patients who attempted suicide and 27 age-matched controls. Patients had significantly higher scores for depression, hopelessness, neuroticism and psychoticism and lower scores for extraversion than controls. They also had significantly lower contingent negative variation (CNV), higher postimperative negative variation and lower whole blood serotonin values than controls. Within the patient group, vulnerability to parasuicide, as determined by previous or repeated acts of deliberate self-harm, was associated with higher scores for hopelessness and suicide intent, lower scores for extraversion and decreased CNV. Factor analysis revealed significant correlations between psychological variables and auditory evoked potential amplitudes for the vulnerable group. A profile of variables associated with increased risk of self-harm in patients presenting with attempted suicide is proposed from our data.     

Views of problem drinking among Native American,Hispanic, and Anglo children

Native American, Hispanic, and Anglo sixth graders reacting to an example of teenage problem drinking expressed similar beliefs and attitudes in many respects. However, Native American children viewed the problem as less serious, subscribed more to a disease theory of alcoholism, attributed less causal responsibility to the individual, and adopted a less aggressive approach toward treatment than did Hispanic, and especially Anglo, children. Their less conventional value orientations accounted for all these differences except their stronger endorsement of a disease theory of problem drinking.     

Irradiation of rabbit retina with diode and Nd:YAG lasers.

AIMS--This study was carried out to compare the effects of continuous wave infrared laser radiation on pigmented and albino rabbit retinas at two wavelengths: 810 nm (diode) and 1064 nm (Nd:YAG). METHODS--Transpupillary laser pulses were applied with a spot size of 200 microns and durations of 200 ms (pigmented rabbits) and 0.5-1 s (albino rabbits). Light and electron microscopic analyses were performed immediately after exposure. RESULTS--In pigmented rabbits, threshold lesions were induced using a power of 100 mW with the diode and 200 mW with the Nd:YAG lasers. Damage was incurred by the retinal pigment epithelium with extension into the superficial and mid choroid posteriorly and into the outer retina anteriorly. In albino rabbits, lesions of comparable anteroposterior extension were identified using a power of 10 W with the Nd:YAG laser. Using diode laser irradiation, a maximum power output of 1.2 W failed to produce discernible lesions. CONCLUSIONS--The observed patterns of morphological damage are produced by complex tissue radiation interactions. In pigmented animals, this was primarily related to absorption of radiant energy by melanin within the retinal pigment epithelium and the choroidal melanocytes. In albino rabbits, laser induced effects occurred as a consequence of multiple scattering, together with absorption within haemoglobin and possibly also within tissue water. The data obtained provide further insight into the biological mechanisms arising from retinal photocoagulation with near infrared lasers.     

A REPRODUCIBLE MODEL OF CHRONIC REJECTION IN RAT RENAL ALLOGRAFTS

A reproducible animal model is essential for the study of the pathogenesis of chronic rejection. This study investigates: (i) the optimal pre-transplant blood transfusion conditions to induce tolerance in a strongly rejecting rat kidney allograft model (Dark Agouti to Albino-Surgery) and avoiding post-transplant immunosuppression; (ii) the functional and histological changes that occur in long-term surviving kidneys and their similarity to chronic rejection; and (iii) the maintenance of tolerance. Prolonged survival occurred after administration of at least two donor blood transfusions with concomitant cyclosporin A (5 mg/kg per day). The time-span between transfusions appeared to be critical: 4 days was more effective than 2 or 7 days. Ineffective treatment led to death within the first 2 weeks post-transplant with histological evidence of acute graft rejection. Seventy-five per cent of long-term survivors experienced impaired renal function in the first week which improved spontaneously and remained stable in 93% of the surviving animals after 100 days and in 668 after 200 days. The morphology of long-term allografts was extremely variable from minor to extensive tubular atrophy, interstitial fibrosis, glomerular hypertrophy, focal and segmental glomerulosclerosis and vascular changes. Glomerular hypertrophy occurred in uninephrectomized controls and probably denoted a response to uninephrectomy. Glomerulosclerosis increased with time and was absent in controls. Although chronic damage was evident, the rats remained tolerant to fresh donor skin. Replacement of the original kidney allograft with a fresh donor kidney resulted in 70% survival. These second grafts showed less severe renal dysfunction and morphological damage than the original allografts in the long-term follow up.