Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study

Introduction Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5–20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age.Methods Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models.Results In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010).Conclusion We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.This work was presented in part at the 30th European Symposium on Calcified Tissues, 8–12 May 2003, Rome, Italy.A.J. Silman and J. Reeve are the EU Grant holders and Project Leaders.     

Duplication 2 (q11.2-q21): a previously unreported abnormality

A 7 year old boy is described with moderate learning disability, facial dysmorphism, and a de novo duplication of chromosome 2 (q11.2-q21). There are few published reports of proximal 2q duplication, and none reporting direct de novo duplication for this exact region.     

Stimulation by mitogens and neuronal membranes of lymphocytes from patients with motor neurone disease

Stimulation of lymphocytes from motor neurone disease patients by either concanavalin A or PHA was shown to be significantly depressed relative to that from normal controls, as assayed by incorporation of [3H]thymidine or [3H]leucine or by glucose uptake. Corresponding significant differences were not shown by assays based upon incorporation of [3H]uridine or of lactate release. Lymphocytes from 4 out of 14 motor neurone disease patients showed a blastogenic response to membranes from rat spinal cord cells, compared with those from 0 out of 9 normal controls. These results not only suggest the possibility of an impaired cellular immune control in MND patients but also indicate the presence of lymphocytes sensitised specifically to neuronal membrane components.     

FK506 in combination with methotrexate for the prevention of graft- versus-host disease after marrow transplantation from matched unrelated donors

The safety and potential efficacy of FK506 in combination with a short course of methotrexate (MTX) for the prevention of acute graft-versus- host disease (GVHD) after marrow transplantation from HLA-matched unrelated donors was evaluated in a single-arm Phase II study conducted at two centers. Forty-three patients, 15 to 54 (median 41) years of age, were transplanted for hematologic malignancies. Thirty-seven of 43 evaluable patients had evidence of sustained marrow engraftment. Five patients died before day 17 after transplantation. The median time to an absolute neutrophil count of > 0.5 x 10(5)/L was 21 (range, 14 to 30) days. Nephrotoxicity (serum creatinine concentration > 2 mg/dL or doubling of baseline) occurred in 32 patients (74% cumulative incidence during the first 100 days after transplant). Other adverse effects included hypertension (n = 27), hyperglycemia (n = 27), neurotoxicity (n = 9) and thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (n = 2). Severe veno- occlusive disease of the liver occurred in 9 (21%) of the 43 patients. Eighteen patients (42%) developed grades II to IV acute GVHD and five (12%) developed grades III to IV acute GVHD. Twelve of 25 evaluable patients developed extensive chronic GVHD within 1 year of marrow transplantation resulting in an estimate of the probability of developing this complication of 48%. The cumulative incidence of transplant-related mortality during the first 100 days was 37%. Kaplan- Meier estimates of disease-free survival at 2 years for good-risk, poor- risk, and all patients were 65%, 4%, and 32%, respectively. FK506 in combination with a short course of MTX appears active in preventing acute GVHD after marrow transplantation from unrelated donors. Further studies comparing the combination of FK506 and MTX with cyclosporine and MTX for the prevention of acute GVHD are warranted.     

Development and characterization of monoclonal antiplatelet autoantibodies from autoimmune thrombocytopenic purpura-prone (NZW x BXSB)F1 mice

Male (NZW x BXSB)F1 (W/BF1) mice develop systemic autoimmunity involving autoantibodies, progressive thrombocytopenia, lupus nephritis, and degenerative coronary vascular disease with myocardial infarction. Platelet-associated IgG (PAIgG) on the platelet surface mediates platelet destruction by the reticuloendothelial system in the autoimmune thrombocytopenic purpura (ATP) of W/BF1 mice. Because the epitopes targeted in ATP by PAIgG have not been identifiable using serum from thrombocytopenic W/BF1 mice, we developed seven hybridomas secreting antiplatelet monoclonal antibodies (MoAbs) using splenocytes of thrombocytopenic W/BF1 mice. Epitopes recognized by three MoAbs were similar to those recognized by PAIgG, because eluted IgG from platelets of thrombocytopenic W/BF1 mice inhibited platelet binding by MoAbs in competitive micro-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Hybridoma cells or purified Ig from the ascites of two clones (2A12 and 6A6), when injected into nude mice produced acute thrombocytopenia, elevated the levels of PAIgG, purpura, and megakaryocytosis. MoAbs of two clones also reacted with single-stranded DNA or double-stranded DNA, and one of these clones (4-13) bound to cardiolipin (CL) but was nonpathogenic in nude mice, suggesting that anti-CL and antiplatelet autoantibodies can be distinct. On immunoblotting analysis, antiplatelet MoAbs frequently bound a 100-Kd platelet protein. These MoAbs contribute to an understanding of the etiopathogenesis of ATP and the several antigens and autoantibodies involved.     

Marrow transplantation with or without donor buffy coat cells for 65 transfused aplastic anemia patients

Sixty-five multiply transfused patients with severe aplastic anemia were given cyclophosphamide followed by grafts anemia were given cyclophosphamide followed by grafts from HLA-identical siblings. The effect of the administration of viable donor buffy coat cells following the marrow inoculum was evaluated with regard to graft rejection and survival. Results in 43 patients so treated are presented along with those in 22 concurrent patients given marrow alone. Most patients given buffy coat had positive in vitro tests of sensitization indicating a high risk for graft rejection, while all but one of the patients given marrow alone had negative tests. Thirty of the 43 (70%) patients given marrow and buffy coat are alive between 10 and 61 mo (median 36) after grafting; 4 died after graft rejection and 6 with acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Eleven of the 22 (50%) patients given marrow alone are alive between 29 and 65 mo (median 52); 7 died after graft rejection and 3 with GVHD. The addition of buffy coat cell infusions to the marrow inoculum reduced the risk of rejection and increased survival in the currently reported transfused patients when compared to patients grafted before 1976. However, there was an increased risk of chronic GVHD. Recipients of marrow from female donors survived slightly better (73%) than recipients of male marrow (58%).     

Intra-articular Chlamydial Antigen and Inflammatory Arthritis

Joint material from 133 patients with well-characterized inflammatoryarthritis, including individuals likely to have suffered reactivearthiritis, was studied. The majority of patients were alsoexamined for the presence of genital tract infection with Chlamydiatrachomatis. Fluorescein-conjugated monoclonal antibodies demonstratedthe presence of C. trachomatis antigen in synovial fluid celldeposits or synovial sections from inflamed knee joints of sevenpatients with reactive arthritis. The significance of thesefindings is discussed, as is the low rate of detection of chlamydialantigen in either the genital tract or the joint from patientsin this study. We emphasize the need for further work aimedat identifying the relevant immunogenic chlamydial antigensresponsible for the initiation of reactive arthritis.     

Effects of psychosocial and individual psychological factors on the onset of musculoskeletal pain: common and site-specific effects

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adverse psychosocial and individual psychological factors increase the risk of pain across regional sites. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted of newly employed workers from 12 diverse occupational groups. Near to the beginning of subjects' employment, details of work related psychosocial factors and individual psychological distress were obtained by means of a self completed questionnaire. Questionnaire follow up after 12 months provided data on these same exposures and ascertained pain at any of four anatomical sites: the low back, shoulder, wrist/forearm, and knee. RESULTS: Of the original 1081 subjects, 829 (77%) provided full details at the one year follow up. Psychosocial work demands and high levels of individual psychological distress were found to have a common effect across sites. Psychological distress was associated with a doubling of the risk of reported pain (odds ratio = 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 2.7), while aspects of job demand, poor support from colleagues, and work dissatisfaction were all associated with increased odds of reported pain onset of between 1.4 and 1.7. These effects were almost all common across the four regional pain sites. CONCLUSIONS: In cohorts of newly employed workers, certain work related psychosocial factors and individual psychological distress are associated with the subsequent reporting of musculoskeletal pain, and generally this effect is common across anatomical sites.