Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis

Background

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown.

Questions/purposes

We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks?

Methods

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and metaregression.

Results

The pooled cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method was 1.55 times higher (95% confidence interval, 1.43–1.68; p < 0.001) than that obtained using the competing-risks method. Longer followup times and higher proportions of competing risks were not associated with increases in the amount of overestimation of revision risk by the Kaplan-Meier method (all p > 0.10). This may be due to the small number of studies that met the inclusion criteria and conservative variance approximation.

Conclusions

The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates risk of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty in populations where competing risks (such as death) might preclude the occurrence of the event of interest (revision). Competing-risks methods should be used to more accurately estimate the cumulative incidence of revision when the goal is to plan healthcare services and resource allocation for revisions.     

Feasibility of determining myocardial infarction type from medical record review

BACKGROUND

Hospital discharge data are used extensively in health research. Given the clinical differences between ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), it is important that these entities be distinguishable in a medical record. The authors sought to determine the extent to which the type of MI is recorded in medical records, as well as the consistency of this designation within individual records.

METHODS

Records of all MI patients admitted to a tertiary care centre in Canada from April 1, 2000, to March 31, 2001, were reviewed. Documentation and consistency of the use of the terms STEMI (Q wave, ST elevation or transmural MI) or NSTEMI (non-Q wave, subendocardial or nontransmural MI) were assessed in the admission history, progress notes, coronary care unit summary and discharge summary sections of each record.

RESULTS

Missing data were common; each chart section mentioned MI type in fewer than one-half of charts. When information was combined, it was possible to determine the type of MI in 81.1% of cases. MI type was consistently described as STEMI in 48.7% of cases, and as NSTEMI in 32.4%. Of concern, MI type was discrepant across sections in 10.5% of cases and missing entirely in 8.4% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The designation of MI cases as STEMI or NSTEMI is both incomplete and inconsistent in hospital records. This has implications for health services research conducted retrospectively using medical record data, because it is difficult to comprehensively study processes and outcomes of MI care if the type cannot be retrospectively determined.     

Gender and ethnic differences in red cell distribution width and its association with mortality among low risk healthy United state adults

Limited information is available about gender and ethnic differences in red cell distribution width (RCDW) with regard to its relation to mortality in a population free of cardiovascular (CV) disease and diabetes. To assess gender and ethnic differences in RCDW and their effect on the association between RCDW and mortality, the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (n = 15,460, 1988 to 1994) data were examined. Multivariate adjusted Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to assess effect of gender and ethnicity on the association between RCDW and mortality (total, CV disease, and coronary heart disease [CHD]). RCDW (mean ± SE) was greater in black women (13.1 ± 0.03) and men (13.4 ± 0.02) compared to women of white (12.9 ± 0.02) and other (13.0 ± 0.07) ethnicities and men of white (13.3 ± 0.02) and other (13.3 ± 0.07) ethnicities, respectively (p <0.001). The interaction between RCDW and gender was statistically significant for all study outcomes (p <0.001) but nonsignificant for RCDW and ethnicity. After adjusting for key variables, RCDW in women was associated with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 1.31) for all-cause mortality, 1.17 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.28) for CV deaths, and 1.18 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.35) for CHD deaths; in men, adjusted hazard ratios were 1.29 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.38) for all-cause mortality, 1.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.37) for CV deaths, and 1.25 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.39) for CHD deaths (p <0.05 for all). In conclusion, blacks and men have significantly greater RCDWs compared to whites and women. Greater RCDW is associated with a greater risk of mortality in men compared to women, whereas no effect modification is observed by ethnicity.     

Fast oscillations during gasping and other non-eupneic respiratory behaviors: Clues to central pattern generation

The mammalian nervous system exhibits fast synchronous oscillations, which are especially prominent in respiratory-related nerve discharges. In the phrenic nerve, they include high- (HFO), medium- (MFO), and low-frequency (LFO) oscillations. Because motoneurons firing at HFO-related frequencies had never been recorded, an epiphenomenological mechanism for their existence had been posited. We have recently recorded phrenic motoneurons firing at HFO-related frequencies in unanesthetized decerebrate rats and showed that they exhibit dynamic coherence with the phrenic nerve, validating synchronous motoneuronal discharge as a mechanism underlying the generation of HFO. In so doing, we have helped validate the conclusions of previous studies by us and other investigators who have used changes in fast respiratory oscillations to make inferences about central respiratory pattern generation. Here, we seek to review changes occurring in fast synchronous oscillations during non-eupneic respiratory behaviors, with special emphasis on gasping, and the inferences that can be drawn from these dynamics regarding respiratory pattern formation.     

The prognostic importance of nonsignificant left main coronary artery disease in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this research was to study the association between nonsignificant (<50%) left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD) and short- and long-term survival in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). BACKGROUND: The prognostic importance of nonsignificant LMCAD is unknown; however, the co-existence of nonsignificant LMCAD may influence revascularization decisions. METHODS: We analyzed mortality and repeat catheterization rates of 11,855 patients in a prospective cardiac registry database who underwent single-vessel or multivessel PCI from January 1996 through December 2001. Of this cohort, 11.7% (n = 1,385) had nonsignificant (<50%) LMCAD. Outcomes were compared with those without LMCAD. A secondary analysis was performed on a larger cohort of 34,586 patients undergoing cardiac catheterization, irrespective of mode of revascularization therapy. RESULTS: Patients with nonsignificant LMCAD had more co-morbidities, and a significantly higher crude mortality rate at 1 year compared with those without LMCAD (4.4% vs. 3.4%; p = 0.05). The 7-year crude mortality hazard ratio (HR) of PCI patients with <50% LMCAD versus those with no LMCAD was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94 to 1.46). After risk adjustment for differences in baseline clinical profile, however, the HR decreased to 0.98 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.23). Repeat catheterization rates at 1 year did not differ between groups. The secondary analysis in all patients with nonsignificant LMCAD showed an adjusted HR of 1.03 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing single-vessel or multivessel PCI who have <50% LMCAD have a nonsignificantly increased 18% relative risk for mortality compared with those without detectable LMCAD that appears to be related to these patients' higher incidence of co-morbidities rather than the left main stenosis itself.     

Circulating T-Cell Subsets,Monocytes, and Natural Killer Cells in Peripartum Cardiomyopathy: Results From the Multicenter IPAC Study

Objective

The aim of this work was to evaluate the hypothesis that the distribution of circulating immune cell subsets, or their activation state, is significantly different between peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) and healthy postpartum (HP) women.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in liver transplant recipients diagnosed by serum cytokeratin 18 and transient elastography: A prospective study

BACKGROUNDNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) seem common after liver transplantation.AIMTo investigate incidence and predictors of NAFLD and NASH by employing noninvasive testing in liver transplant recipients, namely controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and the serum biomarker cytokeratin 18 (CK-18). We also evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of CK-18 and CAP compared to liver histology.METHODSWe prospectively recruited consecutive adult patients who received liver transplant at the McGill University Health Centre between 2015-2018. Serial measurements of CK-18 and CAP were recorded. NAFLD and NASH were diagnosed by CAP ≥ 270 dB/m, and a combination of CAP ≥ 270 dB/m with CK-18 > 130.5 U/L, respectively. Incidences and predictors of NAFLD and NASH were investigated using survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards.RESULTSOverall, 40 liver transplant recipients (mean age 57 years; 70% males) were included. During a median follow-up of 16.8 mo (interquartile range 15.6-18.0), 63.0% and 48.5% of patients developed NAFLD and NASH, respectively. On multivariable analysis, after adjusting for sex and alanine aminotransferase, body mass index was an independent predictor of development of NAFLD [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.41; P = 0.01] and NASH (aHR: 1.26, 95%CI: 1.06-1.49; P < 0.01). Compared to liver histology, CAP had a 76% accuracy to diagnose NAFLD, while the accuracy of CAP plus CK-18 to diagnose NASH was 82%.CONCLUSIONNAFLD and NASH diagnosed non-invasively are frequent in liver transplant recipients within the first 18 mo. Close follow-up and nutritional counselling should be planned in overweight patients.     

The modified superiorly based pharyngeal flap. Part IV. Position of the base of the flap.

The modified superiorly based pharyngeal flap surgical technique developed by Epker et al. was performed on 13 patients with moderate to severe hypernasality. The flap base was attached close to the level of the palatal plane and was found to maintain a consistent longitudinal relationship to the level of the atlas. This technique corrected hypernasality in a range of patients with velopharyngeal incompetence, as predicted.