A stochastic model for determining the necessary staff level in a service industry

Determining sufficient staff levels and providing quality, economical and efficient service is a problem that is difficult for some staffing managers to solve. The objectives in this paper are to derive a stochastic model for determining the necessary staff levels in various service environments such as hospitals, banks, or in manufacturing settings where the demand for a good staff is erratic. In order to assess the proper staff levels, an equation must be used which involves previous service demand hours that are considered as a distribution integrated within the statistical capability scale distribution. The most important property of this staffing model is that the results are independent of the mix of the jobs, the variation of the in-service time for jobs, and the stationary or nonstationary job arrival rate.     

Automatic analysis of the electromyographic interference pattern. Part II: Findings in control subjects and in some neuromuscular diseases

The electromyographic (EMG) interference pattern (IP) was measured in the biceps muscle of 16 normal male and 17 normal female subjects. The activity, upper centile amplitude (UCA), and the number of small segments (NSS) (defined in a companion paper) were measured from 500-msec epochs of the IP. The normal values of these features were defined separately for men and women by plotting the UCA and NSS values against activity for each epoch and defining an area on these plots, called a “cloud,” that contained more than 90% of the datum points from each study. The mean deviation of the individual datum points from the overall mean values was also calculated for each study. A study in one muscle is considered to be normal if more than 90% of the datum points from that muscle are within the normal clouds and the deviation values are within their normal range. In patients with neuropathy, the characteristic pattern was increased UCA with normal or decreased NSS. In patients with myopathy, NSS was increased and the UCA was normal or decreased. In all studies, the interpretations of the IP from the plots agreed with qualitative assessments of the IP made independently by an electromyographer. The use of these features to understand and quantitate the changes in the motor units produced by disease is demonstrated by serial studies performed in a patient with motor neuron disease.     

PET network abnormalities and cognitive decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

Temporoparietal and posterior cingulate metabolism deficits characterize patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). A H(2)(15)O resting PET scan covariance pattern, derived by using multivariate techniques, was previously shown to discriminate 17 mild AD patients from 16 healthy controls. This AD covariance pattern revealed hypoperfusion in bilateral inferior parietal lobule and cingulate; and left middle frontal, inferior frontal, precentral, and supramarginal gyri. The AD pattern also revealed hyperperfusion in bilateral insula, lingual gyri, and cuneus; left fusiform and superior occipital gyri; and right parahippocampal gyrus and pulvinar. In an independent sample of 23 outpatients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) followed at 6-month intervals, the AD pattern score was evaluated as a predictor of cognitive decline. In this MCI sample, an H2(15)O resting PET scan was carried out at baseline. Mean duration of follow-up was 48.8 (SD 15.5) months, during which time six of 23 MCI patients converted to AD. In generalized estimating equations (GEE) analyses, controlling for age, sex, education, and baseline neuropsychological scores, increased AD pattern score was associated with greater decline in each neuropsychological test score over time (Mini Mental State Exam, Selective Reminding Test delayed recall, Animal Naming, WAIS-R digit symbol; Ps<0.01-0.001). In summary, a resting PET covariance pattern previously reported to discriminate AD patients from control subjects was applied prospectively to an independent sample of MCI patients and found to predict cognitive decline. Independent replication in larger samples is needed before clinical application can be considered.     

Intracardiac transplantation of a mixed population of bone marrow cells improves both regional systolic contractility and diastolic relaxation.

BACKGROUND: Pre-clinical and clinical studies suggest that transplantation of bone marrow-derived stem cells can improve global cardiac function. However, no quantitative assessment of regional systolic contraction and correlation with phenotype has been made. Therefore, we used our model of cryoinfarcted rabbit myocardium for intracardiac transplantation of a mixed population of bone marrow-derived cells and assessed both regional function and myogenic conversion of the cells. METHODS: Nineteen New Zealand white rabbits underwent cryoinjury of the left ventricle. Autologous bone marrow (BM) cells were expanded in vitro. After 2 weeks, either 1 x 10(8) mixed BM-derived progenitor cells (BM group, n = 11) or vehicle (control group, n = 8) were injected into the cryoinjured region. Regional systolic function was measured using micromanometry and sonomicrometry before and 4 weeks after cell injection; cell phenotype was evaluated histologically. RESULTS: All animals in the BM group significantly improved both systolic shortening (0.11 +/- 0.7 vs -0.05 +/- 0.05 mm in the control group, p < 0.05) and regional stroke work when compared with control (9.6 +/- 2.4 vs -1.2 +/- 1.2 mm . mm Hg, p < 0.003). In addition, the BM group had improved global diastolic function, as measured by minimum dP/dt and end-diastolic pressure. On histologic assessment, BM cells differentiated toward a myogenic phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: Transplanting a mixed population of marrow-derived cells that can adopt a myogenic phenotype improves regional contractility and diastolic relaxation after myocardial infarction.     

Modeling the effects of health status and the educational infrastructure on the cognitive development of Tanzanian schoolchildren.

This paper models the proximate determinants of school attendance and scores on cognitive and educational achievement tests and on school examinations of over 600 schoolchildren from the Control group of a randomized trial in Tanzania, where children in the Intervention group heavily infected with hookworm and schistosomiasis received treatment. The modeling approach used a random effects framework and incorporated the inter-relationships between school attendance and performance on various tests, controlling for children's health status, socioeconomic variables, grade level, and the educational infrastructure. The empirical results showed the importance of variables such as children's height and hemoglobin concentration for the scores, especially on educational achievement tests that are easy to implement in developing countries. Also, teacher experience and work assignments were significant predictors of the scores on educational achievement tests, and there was some evidence of multiplicative effects of children's heights and work assignments on the test scores. Lastly, some comparisons were made for changes in test scores of treated children in the Intervention group with the untreated children in the Control group.     

Guidelines for Trials of Behavioral Treatments for Recurrent Headache, First Edition: American Headache Society Behavioral Clinical Trials Workgroup

Guidelines for design of clinical trials evaluating behavioral headache treatments were developed to facilitate production of quality research evaluating behavioral therapies for management of primary headache disorders. These guidelines were produced by a Workgroup of headache researchers under auspices of the American Headache Society. The guidelines are complementary to and modeled after guidelines for pharmacological trials published by the International Headache Society, but they address methodologic considerations unique to behavioral and other nonpharmacological treatments. Explicit guidelines for evaluating behavioral headache therapies are needed as the optimal methodology for behavioral (and other nonpharmacologic) trials necessarily differs from the preferred methodology for drug trials. In addition, trials comparing and integrating drug and behavioral therapies present methodological challenges not addressed by guidelines for pharmacologic research. These guidelines address patient selection, trial design for behavioral treatments and for comparisons across multiple treatment modalities (eg, behavioral vs pharmacologic), evaluation of results, and research ethics. Although developed specifically for behavioral therapies, the guidelines may apply to the design of clinical trials evaluating many forms of nonpharmacologic therapies for headache.     

Clinical and Actuarial Prediction of Physical Violence in a Forensic Intellectual Disability Hospital: A Longitudinal Study

Background There is a high rate of physical violence in populations with intellectual disabilities, and this has been linked to problems for the victim, the assailant, members of staff and services. Despite the clinical significance of this behaviour, few studies have assessed methods of predicting its occurrence. The present study examined clinical and actuarial methods of predicting violence in a forensic intellectual disability hospital. Methods The sample for the study consisted of people resident in the hospital during a 1‐year period (n = 124). Clinical prediction used a risk rating made by members of the person's clinical team, whereas actuarial prediction used the number of violent incidents in the 6‐months before the date of the clinical risk assessment. Computerized hospital records of violence in the 6 months after the assessment were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the two methods. Results The clinical method produced an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.65–0.83) in a receiver–operating characteristic curve analysis. The value for the actuarial method was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.86). Both methods performed at levels significantly above chance, but no one method was found to be superior to the other. Conclusions These findings suggest that it is possible to predict who is at risk of violence in forensic populations with intellectual disabilities. Here, the authors discuss the clinical implications of these findings and the clinical application of risk prediction within clinical services.     

Phase II trial of Didemnin B in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma

Summary Twenty-three patients with advanced renal cell cancer were treated with Didemnin B. One partial response was achieved (5%) in 21 evaluable patients. An allergic reaction was noted in four patients including one patient with anaphylaxis. Didemnin B is not recommended in the treatment of renal cell carcinoma.     

Brain abscess in the 1980s

Brain abscess was reviewed in 24 patients admitted to University Hospital, Nottingham over a period of 3 years. Chronic ear infection was the most common predisposing factor, but in 11 patients the focus of infection remained unknown. CT scanning, carried out in all patients, was negative in one patient with clinical signs of meningitis. Polymicrobial and anaerobic infections were common. Actinomyces species were isolated in mixed culture from seven patients; in five the abscess was located in the cerebellum. Therapy was most often a combination of surgical drainage and antimicrobial therapy with beta-lactam agents and metronidazole. Evidence suggests that cefotaxime may offer a suitable alternative to chloramphenicol and benzylpenicillin in the treatment of brain abscess.