Power calculation for cohort studies with improved estimation of expected numbers of deaths

Summary This paper focuses on improving the accuracy of sample size calculations for cohort studies by careful calculation of the expected number of deaths in the population, taking into account either prior information or realistic assumptions about variables which may affect the mortality or incidence. Sometimes small changes in the assumptions can dramatically alter the expected numbers and may necessitate modifications in the design of the study. Possible modification include extension of the follow-up time, and recognition that the real strength of the study may lie in the potential for pooling several similar studies. The problem will be discussed with reference to two examples of occupational cohort studies where differing prior information was available.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Genauigkeit der Berechnung des Stichprobenumfangs in Kohortenstudien, wenn detaillierte Berechnungen für die erwartete Zahl der Verstorbenen berücksichtigt werden. Dies kann entweder durch die Ausnutzung vorhandener Informationen oder durch realistische Annahmen über die Faktoren, die Mortalität oder Inzidenz beeinflussen, geschehen. Schon kleine Unterschiede in diesen Annahmen kann die erwartete Zahl der Verstorbenen erheblich verändern und es notwendig machen, das Design einer Studie zu verändern. Solche Modifikationen bestehen z.B. in der Verlängerung der Follow-up Zeit der Studie oder in der Einsicht, dass es nötig ist, Daten aus mehreren Studien zusammenzufassen. Die Probleme werden anhand von zwei Beispielen aus dem Bereich der Berufsepidemiologie diskutiert.

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Résumé Cet article concerne la précision des estimations de taille d'échantillons pour les études de cohortes. Le calcul précis du nombre de décès attendus dans la population prend en compte les variables susceptibles d'affecter la mortalité ou l'incidence, provenant soit d'une connaissance préalable, soit d'hypothèses réalistes. De modestes changements d'hypothèses peuvent parfois altérer de façon substantielle les nombres attendus et nécessiter des modifications dans le protocole de l'étude. Parmi les modifications possibles, il faut citer la prolongation du temps de suivi de l'étude ainsi que le constat que la valeur réelle de l'étude pourrait reposer sur la possibilité de mise en commun de plusieurs études similaires. Le problème est discuté à l'aide de deux exemples d'études de cohortes professionnelles pour lesquelles différentes informations préalables sont disponibles.

     

A comparison of tympanic thermometer readings to pulmonary artery catheter core temperature recordings

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of FirstTemp (Intelligent Medical Systems, Carlsbad, CA) tympanic thermometer readings compared with core body temperatures obtained via pulmonary artery catheter (PAC). Five measurements were obtained on 19 cardiovascular surgery patients. Tympanic thermometer measurements tended to be higher than PAC measurements. However, most of the differences were not clinically significant. Differences found between right and left ear measurements were most likely due to poor measurement technique. When the correct technique is used, nurses can be confident that tympanic temperature readings are clinically accurate.     

Symptomatic treatment in the fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome.

There is no established treatment for the neurological features of the recently discovered fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS). Fifty-six patients with FXTAS completed a questionnaire to determine whether any medications had been effective for neurological symptoms. Of 11 subjects with definite FXTAS, 8 (70%) were on medications for their neurological symptoms, whereas most subjects with possible or probable FXTAS, 31 (70%) of 45 subjects, were not on medications. Although no therapy was uniformly effective for intention tremor, ataxia, Parkinsonism, memory loss, or anxiety, some subjects with intention tremor or Parkinsonism reported improvement with medications frequently used in other movement disorders. Overall, all 22 subjects on medications reported improvement in one or more symptoms. Lack of insight, recall bias, and cognitive impairment may have resulted in an underestimation of the beneficial effect of medical therapy. This study suggests that patients with FXTAS can derive improvement from medication treatment for some of their symptoms.     

Cyclooxygenase 2 expression in serous tumors of the ovary.

This study was designed to investigate the expression of cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 in ovarian serous tumors (benign, borderline tumors, and carcinomas) and primary peritoneal serous carcinomas. Cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2001 were reviewed; 47 benign tumors, 6 borderline tumors, and 39 carcinomas were examined, as well as 12 normal ovaries that served as controls. Blocks were stained with anti COX-2 polyclonal antibody and staining was graded qualitatively. The staining intensity was assessed as weak (score of 1), moderate (score of 2), or strong (score of 3). Normal ovarian and tubal epithelium, inclusion cysts, benign serous tumors, and borderline tumors had a uniform score 3 staining pattern. Serous ovarian carcinomas had variable staining scores, tending to correlate with the level of tumor differentiation. Well-differentiated carcinomas had more intense COX-2 staining than poorly differentiated carcinomas, which had only weak COX-2 staining. The degree of COX-2 staining was not significantly related to overall survival. In conclusion, COX-2 expression is present in serous tumors, including benign tumors, borderline tumors, and carcinomas. Similar to the findings in other neoplasms, COX-2 expression is strongest in well-differentiated tumors and is much less evident in those that are poorly differentiated. The clinical utility of these findings is related to the potential role of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, which are COX-2 inhibitors, in treating and/or preventing some forms of ovarian carcinoma.     

Francisella tularensis: possible agent in bioterrorism.

Francisella tularensis, the causative agent of tularemia, is a highly infectious gram-negative coccobacillus. Due to its high infectivity it is of major concern to public health officials as a possible biological weapon. Although accidental exposure can occur through arthropod bites, handling infected animals, or breathing in aerosols, cases are usually isolated and contained. In the event of an intentional exposure such as in a bioterrorist attack, inhalation of aerosols can result in devastating consequences with much causality. Although a vaccine is available, sufficient quantities may not be readily accessible in an actual attack. Therefore, it is very important for both medical professionals and public health officials to be prepared to contain and control the situation should it actually occur.     

Clinical Impact of Community-Acquired Respiratory Viruses on Bronchiolitis Obliterans After Lung Transplant

Community-acquired viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) in lung transplant recipients may have a high rate of progression to pneumonia and can be a trigger for immunologically mediated detrimental effects on lung function. A cohort of 100 patients was enrolled from 2001 to 2003 in which 50 patients had clinically diagnosed viral RTI and 50 were asymptomatic. All patients had nasopharyngeal and throat swabs taken for respiratory virus antigen detection, culture and RT-PCR. All patients had pulmonary function tests at regular intervals for 12 months. Rates of rejection, decline in forced expiratory volume (L) in 1 s (FEV-1) and bacterial and fungal superinfection were compared at the 3-month primary endpoint. In the 50 patients with RTI, a microbial etiology was identified in 33 of 50 (66%) and included rhinovirus (9), coronavirus (8), RSV (6), influenza A (5), parainfluenza (4) and human metapneumovirus (1). During the 3-month primary endpoint, 8 of 50 (16%) RTI patients had acute rejection versus 0 of 50 non-RTI patients (p=0.006). The number of patients experiencing a 20% or more decline in FEV-1 by 3 months was 9 of 50 (18%) RTI versus 0 of 50 non-RTI (0%) (p=0.003). In six of these nine patients, the decline in FEV-1 was sustained over a 1-year period consistent with bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). Community-acquired respiratory viruses may be associated with the development of acute rejection and BOS.     

Effects of gastric bypass procedures on bone mineral density,calcium, parathyroid hormone,and vitamin d

Weight loss after gastric bypass procedures has been well studied, but the long-term metabolic sequelae are not known. Data on bone mineral density (BMD), calcium, parathyroid hormone, and vitamin D were collected preoperatively and at yearly intervals after gastric bypass procedures. A total of 230 patients underwent preoperative BMD scans. Fifteen patients were osteopenic preoperatively, and three patients subsequently developed osteopenia postoperatively within the first year. No patient had or developed osteoporosis. At 1 year, total forearm BMD decreased by 0.55% (n = 91; P = .03) and radius BMD had increased overall by 1.85% (n = 23; P = .008); both total hip and lumbar spine BMD decreased by 9.27% (n = 22; P < .001) and 4.53% (n = 31; P < .001), respectively. By the second postoperative year, BMD in the total forearm had decreased an additional 3.62% (n = 14; P<.001), whereas radius BMD remained unchanged. Although total hip and lumbar spine BMD significantly decreased at 1 year, by year 2 both total hip and lumbar spine BMD only slightly decreased and were not significantly different from before the operation. Serum calcium decreased from 9.8 mg/dL to 9.2 during the first year (not significant [NS]) and then to 8.8 (NS) by the second year. Parathyroid hormone increased from 59.7 pg/mL (nl 10-65 pg/mL) preoperatively to 63.1 during year 1 (NS) and continued to increase to 64.7 by year 2 (NS). No difference was noted among levels of 25-hydroxy vitamin D preoperatively (25.2 ng/mL; nl 10-65 ng/mL), at 1 year (34.4), and at 2 years (35.4). Our data indicate that bone loss is highest in the first year after gastric bypass with stabilization, and that, in some cases, there is an increase in bone density after the first year. Presented at the Forty-Sixth Annual Meeting of The Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, Chicago, Illinois, May 14–18, 2005 (oral presentation).