Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak . After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security.     

Stress Testing Versus CT Angiography in Patients With Diabetes and Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

Background

The optimal noninvasive test (NIT) for patients with diabetes and stable symptoms of coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown.

Contemporary Use of Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Insights from the Multicenter RESCUE Registry

BackgroundVenoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is increasingly used as a life-saving therapy for patients with cardiovascular collapse, but identifying patients unlikely to benefit remains a challenge.Methods and ResultsWe created the RESCUE registry, a retrospective, observational registry of adult patients treated with VA-ECMO between January 2007 and June 2017 at 3 high-volume centers (Columbia University, Duke University, and Washington University) to describe short-term patient outcomes. In 723 patients treated with VA-ECMO, the most common indications for deployment were postcardiotomy shock (31%), cardiomyopathy (including acute heart failure) (26%), and myocardial infarction (17%). Patients frequently suffered in-hospital complications, including acute renal dysfunction (45%), major bleeding (41%), and infection (33%). Only 40% of patients (n = 290) survived to discharge, with a minority receiving durable cardiac support (left ventricular assist device [n = 48] or heart transplantation [n = 7]). Multivariable regression analysis identified risk factors for mortality on ECMO as older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.42) and female sex (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02–2.02) and risk factors for mortality after decannulation as higher body mass index (OR 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01-1.35) and major bleeding while on ECMO support (OR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.23–2.99).ConclusionsDespite contemporary care at high-volume centers, patients treated with VA-ECMO continue to have significant in-hospital morbidity and mortality. The optimization of outcomes will require refinements in patient selection and improvement of care delivery.     

Application of the adverse outcome pathway framework to genotoxic modes of action

In May 2017, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute's Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee hosted a workshop to discuss whether mode of action (MOA) investigation is enhanced through the application of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework. As AOPs are a relatively new approach in genetic toxicology, this report describes how AOPs could be harnessed to advance MOA analysis of genotoxicity pathways using five example case studies. Each of these genetic toxicology AOPs proposed for further development includes the relevant molecular initiating events, key events, and adverse outcomes (AOs), identification and/or further development of the appropriate assays to link an agent to these events, and discussion regarding the biological plausibility of the proposed AOP. A key difference between these proposed genetic toxicology AOPs versus traditional AOPs is that the AO is a genetic toxicology endpoint of potential significance in risk characterization, in contrast to an adverse state of an organism or a population. The first two detailed case studies describe provisional AOPs for aurora kinase inhibition and tubulin binding, leading to the common AO of aneuploidy. The remaining three case studies highlight provisional AOPs that lead to chromosome breakage or mutation via indirect DNA interaction (inhibition of topoisomerase II, production of cellular reactive oxygen species, and inhibition of DNA synthesis). These case studies serve as starting points for genotoxicity AOPs that could ultimately be published and utilized by the broader toxicology community and illustrate the practical considerations and evidence required to formalize such AOPs so that they may be applied to genetic toxicity evaluation schemes. Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 61:114–134, 2020. © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Are Medicare's Nursing Home Compare Ratings Accurate Predictors of 90-Day Complications,Readmission, and Bundle Cost for Patients Undergoing Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty?

Background

Nursing Home Compare (NHC) ratings, created and maintained by Medicare, are used by both hospitals and consumers to aid in the skilled nursing facility (SNF) selection process. To date, no studies have linked NHC ratings to actual episode-based outcomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether NHC ratings are valid predictors of 90-day complications, readmission, and bundle costs for patients discharged to an SNF after primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA).