The development and validation of the Score for the Prediction of Postoperative Respiratory Complications (SPORC-2) to predict the requirement for early postoperative tracheal re-intubation: a hospital registry study

Postoperative pulmonary complications are associated with an increase in mortality, morbidity and healthcare utilisation. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality recommends risk assessment for postoperative respiratory complications in patients undergoing surgery. In this hospital registry study of adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery between 2005 and 2017 at two independent healthcare networks, a prediction instrument for early postoperative tracheal re-intubation was developed and externally validated. This was based on the development of the Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications. For predictor selection, stepwise backward logistic regression and bootstrap resampling were applied. Development and validation cohorts were represented by 90,893 patients at Partners Healthcare and 67,046 patients at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, of whom 699 (0.8%) and 587 (0.9%) patients, respectively, had their tracheas re-intubated. In addition to five pre-operative predictors identified in the Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications, the final model included seven additional intra-operative predictors: early post-tracheal intubation desaturation; prolonged duration of surgery; high fraction of inspired oxygen; high vasopressor dose; blood transfusion; the absence of volatile anaesthetic use; and the absence of lung-protective ventilation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the new score was significantly greater than that of the original Score for Prediction Of Postoperative Respiratory Complications (0.84 [95%CI 0.82–0.85] vs. 0.76 [95%CI 0.75–0.78], respectively; p < 0.001). This may allow clinicians to develop and implement strategies to decrease the risk of early postoperative tracheal re-intubation.     

Developing a Point-of-Sale Health Communication Campaign for Cigarillos and Waterpipe Tobacco

ABSTRACT

Adolescents and young adults smoke waterpipe tobacco (WT) and cigarillos, at least in part, based on erroneous beliefs that these products are safer than cigarettes. To address this challenge, we used a systematic, three-phase process to develop a health communication campaign to discourage WT and cigarillo smoking among at-risk (tobacco users and susceptible non-users) 16- to 25-year-olds. In Phase 1, we used a national phone survey (N = 896) to determine salient message beliefs. Participants reported constituents (i.e., harmful chemicals) emitted by the products were worrisome. In Phase 2, we developed and evaluated four message executions, with varying imagery, tone, and unappealing products with the same constituents, using focus groups (N = 38). Participants rated one execution highly, resulting in our development of a campaign where each message: (1) identified a tobacco product and constituent in the smoke; (2) included an image of an unappealing product containing the constituent (e.g., pesticides, gasoline) to grab attention; and (3) used a humorous sarcastic tone. In Phase 3, we tested the campaign messages (17 intervention and six control) with a nationally representative online survey (N = 1,636). Participants rated intervention and control messages highly with few differences between them. Exposure to messages resulted in significant increases in all risk beliefs from pre to post (p < 0.05). For WT, intervention messages increased beliefs about addiction more than control messages (p < 0.05). This systematic, iterative approach resulted in messages that show promise for discouraging WT and cigarillo use.     

Characterization of Malignant Portal Vein Thrombosis with Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography

We prospectively evaluated the effectiveness of contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) for differentiation of benign versus malignant portal vein thrombosis (PVT). We studied a total of 43 patients with chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma-suggestive nodules and confirmed PVT, in whom the nature of the PVT was confirmed by follow-up imaging (US, computed tomography and/or magnetic resonance imaging) performed up to 6 mo after CEUS. PVT was assessed by US, Doppler US and CEUS with respect to vessel wall disruption and/or invasion, color Doppler vascularization, pulsed Doppler vascularization pattern and CEUS enhancement and vascularization pattern, and thrombi were classified as benign or malignant based on these findings. Follow-up studies revealed malignant PVT in 22 of the 43 patients (51%) and benign PVT in 21 patients (49%). CEUS findings were consistent with follow-up studies in 41 of the 43 patients (95%), with κ?=?0.903 (p < 0.0001), sensitivity?=?91% and specificity?=?100%, indicating that CEUS can be confidently used to differentiate benign from malignant portal vein thrombosis in the setting of chronic liver disease.     

Non alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident diabetes in subjects who are not obese

Background and aims

It is not known whether non alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor for diabetes in non obese, non centrally-obese subjects. Our aim was to investigate relationships between fatty liver, insulin resistance and a biomarker score for liver fibrosis with incident diabetes at follow up, in subjects who were neither obese nor centrally-obese.

Insights from examination of hearts from adults dying suddenly to the understanding of congenital cardiac malformations

Congenital heart disease is a rare but important finding in adults who experience sudden death. Examination of the congenitally malformed heart has historically been considered esoteric and best left to those with expertise. The Cardiac Risk in the Young cardiovascular pathology laboratory based at St George's University of London has now received over 6,000 cases. Of these, 21 congenitally malformed hearts were retained for research and educational purposes. Hearts were assessed using sequential segmental analysis, and causes of death were adjudicated based on thorough macroscopic examination and histology. Congenital malformations that were encountered included atrial septal defects, ventricular septal defects, tetralogy of Fallot, and transposition of the great arteries in both its regular and congenitally corrected variants. Findings also included hearts with mirror-imaged and isomeric atrial appendages. Direct causes of death included myocardial fibrosis, pulmonary hypertension, and hemorrhage. A small but notable proportion did not reveal a substrate for arrhythmia, raising the question of whether the terminal event was due to the congenital heart disease itself, or an underlying channelopathy. Here, we demonstrate the value of simple sequential segmental analysis in describing and categorizing the cases, with the concept of the “morphological method” serving to identify the distinguishing features of the cardiac components. Clin. Anat. 33:394–404, 2020. © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.