Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Canadian Consensus Recommendations for the Optimal Use of Enfuvirtide in HIV/AIDS Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: An eight-member group consisting of Canadian infectious disease and immunology specialists and a family physician with significant experience in HIV management was convened to update existing recommendations, specifically intended for use by Canadian HIV-treating physicians, on the appropriate use of enfuvirtide in HIV/AIDS patients with resistance to other antiretroviral drugs. METHODS: Evidence from the literature and expert opinions of the group members formed the basis of the guidelines. Comments on the draft guidelines were obtained from other physicians across Canada with HIV expertise. The final guidelines represent the group's consensus agreement. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The recommendations were developed to guide physicians in optimal practices in patient selection for enfuvirtide treatment and subsequent patient management. The issues considered include positive predictors of response to enfuvirtide, stage of disease, optimization of the background regimen, early indicators of enfuvirtide response, and patient education and support.     

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.