Predictability of persistent frequent attendance: a historic 3-year cohort study

Background

Few patients who attend GP consultations frequently continue to do so long term. While transient frequent attendance may be readily explicable, persistent frequent attendance often is not. It increases GPs'' workload while reducing work satisfaction. It is neither reasonable, nor efficient to target diagnostic assessment and intervention at transient frequent attenders.

Aim

To develop a prediction rule for selecting persistent frequent attenders, using readily available information from GPs'' electronic medical records.

Design of study

A historic 3-year cohort study.

Method

Data of 28 860 adult patients from 2003 to 2005 were examined. Frequent attenders were patients whose attendance rate ranked in the (age- and sex-adjusted) top 10% during 1 year (1-year frequent attenders) or 3 years (persistent frequent attenders). Bootstrapped multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine which predictors contained information on persistent frequent attendance.

Results

Of 3045 1-year frequent attenders, 470 (15.4%) became persistent frequent attenders. The prediction rule could update this prior probability to 3.3% (lowest value) or 43.3% (highest value). However, the 10th and 90th centiles of the posterior probability distribution were 7.4% and 26.3% respectively, indicating that the model performs modestly. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.67 (95% confidence limits 0.64 and 0.69).

Conclusion

Among 1-year frequent attenders, six out of seven are transient frequent attenders. With the present indicators, the rule developed performs modestly in selecting those more likely to become persistent frequent attenders.     

Double bypass for inoperable pancreatic malignancy at laparotomy: postoperative complications and long-term outcome

INTRODUCTION

Between 4% and 13% of patients with operable pancreatic malignancy are found unresectable at the time of surgery. Double bypass is a good option for fit patients but it is associated with high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this study was to identify pre-operatively which patients undergoing double bypass are at high risk of complications and to assess their long-term outcome.

METHODS

Of the 576 patients undergoing pancreatic resections between 2006 and 2011, 50 patients who underwent a laparotomy for a planned pancreaticoduodenectomy had a double bypass procedure for inoperable disease. Demographic data, risk factors for postoperative complications and pre-operative anaesthetic assessment data including the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were collected.

RESULTS

Fifty patients (33 men and 17 women) were included in the study. The median patient age was 64 years (range: 39–79 years). The complication rate was 50% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 4%. The P-POSSUM physiology subscore and low anaerobic threshold at CPET were significantly associated with postoperative complications (p=0.005 and p=0.016 respectively) but they were unable to predict them. Overall long-term survival was significantly shorter in patients with postoperative complications (9 vs 18 months). Postoperative complications were independently associated with poorer long-term survival (p=0.003, odds ratio: 3.261).

CONCLUSIONS

P-POSSUM and CPET are associated with postoperative complications but the possibility of using them for risk prediction requires further research. However, postoperative complications following double bypass have a significant impact on long-term survival and this type of surgery should therefore only be performed in specialised centres.     

血管成形术和支架辅助血管成形术治疗颅内动脉粥样硬化的报告标准（上）

背景和目的颅内动脉粥样硬化可造成众多患者发生缺血性卒中。过去10年间血管内治疗技术已经取得突破性进展,能够开展颅内动脉粥样硬化性狭窄的血管内治疗。采用血管成形术和支架辅助阻管成形术治疗颅内动脉粥样硬化性狭窄的患者例数不断增加。但是鉴于目前血管成形术和支架辅助血管成形术治疗狭窄性和闭塞性颅内动脉粥样硬化仍缺乏普遍认可的临床和放射学评估以及皿管内治疗技术及预后的规范,此文就是提供该方面报告标准、术语和书面定义的共识性建议。报告摘要报告标准是在技术评价委员会、神经介入外科学会、介入放射学会、美国神经外科医师协会和神经外科医师代表大会的脑血管外科分会、美国神经科学会的卒中和介入神经病学分会的联合写作组共同起草完成。对1997年1月-2007年12月间,美国国立图书馆医学文献数据库（PubMed）进行计算机检索,旨在确定已发表的狭窄性颅内动脉粥样硬化的神经介入治疗中,能用作质量评价基准的资料。我们尽可能地确定影响神经介入治疗成功及并发症可能性的危险调节变量。对狭窄性和闭塞性颅内动脉粥样硬化进行麻管内治疗的临床试验设计中,不同临床和技术问题可能影响血管内治疗的疗效,此文章为这些问题提供相关的理论基础。该指南中包括对血管内治疗试验报告标准的建议。虽然制定规范和标准主要是出于研究用途,但是这也将有助于临床实践,还适用于所有相关的出版物。结论总之,报告标准提出的建议将有助于构建有效的研究数据库,同时促进产生科学可靠的研究结果,使相似研究之间或内部能够进行可靠的比较。存某些情况下,为报告和出版的一致性,本文中的定义可能是写作组专家的共识性建议。这些建议将促使不同研究组的结果具有直接可比性。     

正交试验法优选右旋糖酐40葡萄糖注射液澄明度的工艺

目的：应用正交试验法优选右旋糖酐４０葡萄糖注射液澄明度的工艺。方法；选择活性髅用量，中间品ｐＨ值与砂棒回流时间等三因素，每个因素取２个水平，按Ｌ８（２＾７）正交安排实验，用２个指标评定工艺的优劣。结果；采用活性炭用量为３．０％，中间品ｐＨ值为４．５，砂棒回流时间４５ｍｉｎ的工艺条件最佳。