From the Cover: PNAS Plus: Climate change,pink salmon,and the nexus between bottom-up and top-down forcing in the subarctic Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Climate change in the last century was associated with spectacular growth of many wild Pacific salmon stocks in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, apparently through bottom-up forcing linking meteorology to ocean physics, water temperature, and plankton production. One species in particular, pink salmon, became so numerous by the 1990s that they began to dominate other species of salmon for prey resources and to exert top-down control in the open ocean ecosystem. Information from long-term monitoring of seabirds in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea reveals that the sphere of influence of pink salmon is much larger than previously known. Seabirds, pink salmon, other species of salmon, and by extension other higher-order predators, are tightly linked ecologically and must be included in international management and conservation policies for sustaining all species that compete for common, finite resource pools. These data further emphasize that the unique 2-y cycle in abundance of pink salmon drives interannual shifts between two alternate states of a complex marine ecosystem.Predator control of community structure and ecosystem function became a tenet of intertidal and nearshore marine ecology following early studies of Paine and others (1–3), yet with few exceptions (4, 5), until more recent times the idea has been less well appreciated for open oceans. Growing attention now is being paid to the overexploitation of pelagic species, particularly those at higher trophic levels currently and in the past, and effects on ocean ecosystems of the loss, or development, of top-down forcing (6–12).The prevailing view has long held that most biological change in ocean ecosystems, apart from human exploitation, is driven from the bottom up (13–16). One striking example that has been linked to bottom-up processes driven by climate change is the burgeoning abundance of wild Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), and in particular pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), in the subarctic North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea (SNPO/BS). Underpinning the notion initially were studies that found (i) strong coherence between decadal patterns in the Aleutian Low pressure system, which exerts a large influence over climate in the North Pacific Ocean, and patterns in salmon production across a broad region of the SNPO/BS (17, 18); (ii) decadal patterns in primary production that could be explained by the effect of the Aleutian Low pressure system on basin scale wind fields (19); and (iii) decadal patterns in zooplankton, squid, and pelagic fish production that also were correlated with meteorological forcing over the North Pacific Ocean and consistent with patterns in primary production (20). Thus, the general explanation for waxing and waning abundances of salmon over the record in the 20th century was that physical forcing by shifts in the strength and position of the Aleutian Low altered winds, ocean temperatures, and primary and secondary production to the benefit or detriment of salmon. A decadal scale oscillation in the Aleutian Low, now often referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (21), has been linked to numerous physical and biological variability in the SNPO/BS in addition to salmon abundance (21–23).It was subsequently shown that salmon population responses and their relation to the PDO were out of phase between Alaska and the northwest coast of North America during much of the 20th century (24); that warm anomalies in coastal temperatures were associated with increased survival of salmon in Alaska; and that regional-scale variability in ocean temperature was a better predictor of salmon survival than large, basin-scale variability characterized by the PDO (25). A recent analysis from around the rim of the North Pacific Ocean found regional covariance in abundance of pink salmon, chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) associated with the Aleutian Low, and with smaller scale spatially coherent, but regionally distinct, patterns in climate (26).Water temperature can be important to the early growth and survival of pink salmon fry directly by its effect on physiology and indirectly by its effect on the timing and development of zooplankton prey stocks in nursery areas, which commonly is advanced and greater in warmer years than in cooler years. In cooler springs, fry grow more slowly and a greater number die both from lack of food and from an increased susceptibility to predators (27, 28). For example, a conceptual model for Prince William Sound, Alaska, holds that, in years of abundant spring zooplankton, fry grow faster and remain longer in the shelter of inshore nurseries where they are protected from walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), two chief predators that remain offshore feeding primarily on swarms of large calanoid copepods and other macrozooplankton. In cooler years of lower zooplankton biomass inshore, fry grow more slowly, move offshore earlier, and suffer higher predation by pollock and herring due to spatial overlap, smaller size, and less alternative prey for those two predators (28).Although the relationship between climate and pink salmon survival is likely complex, fluctuations in abundance appear to be modulated in large measure directly and indirectly by the thermal environment in which a stock lives. Such a fundamentally bottom-up explanation is bolstered by observations of high growth and survival rates of pink salmon during the period of warmer ocean temperatures and population increase (29, 30), and at this time provides a more parsimonious explanation for population dynamics than would explanations invoking strictly top-down control across such a broad region. Now, however, several lines of evidence indicate that pink salmon themselves are having a large top-down influence on other salmon species, other upper trophic level pelagic species, plankton standing stocks, and by inference, the functioning of the open-ocean ecosystem in the SNPO/BS.     

Spatially robust estimates of biological nitrogen (N) fixation imply substantial human alteration of the tropical N cycle

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.Over the last few decades, humans have dramatically altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle (1–3). Three main processes—Haber–Bosch fixation of atmospheric N₂, widespread cultivation of leguminous N-fixing crops, and incidental N fixation during fossil fuel combustion—collectively add more reactive N to the biosphere each year than all natural processes combined (2). Although human perturbation of the N cycle has brought substantial benefits to society (most notably, an increase in crop production) (4), it has also had a number of negative effects on both ecosystems (5, 6) and people (7).Although humanity’s large imprint on the global N cycle is clear, quantifying the extent of anthropogenic changes depends, in large part, on establishing baseline estimates of nonanthropogenic N inputs (1, 8, 9). Before recent human activities, biological N fixation (BNF) was the largest source of new N to the biosphere (9). Terrestrial BNF has been particularly challenging to quantify, because it displays high spatial and temporal heterogeneity at local scales, it arises from both symbiotic associations between bacteria and plants as well as free-living microorganisms (e.g., in leaf litter and soil) (10), and high atmospheric concentrations of N₂ make direct flux measurements unfeasible. Consequently, spatial estimates of BNF have always been highly uncertain (11), and global rate estimates have fallen precipitously in the last 15 y (from 100–290 to ∼44 Tg N y⁻¹) (9). This decline in BNF implies an increase in the relative magnitude of anthropogenic N inputs from 100–150% to 190–470% of BNF (9).Historically, the largest anthropogenic changes to the N cycle have occurred in the northern temperate zone: first throughout the United States and western Europe and more recently, in China (12, 13). Large-scale estimates of BNF in natural ecosystems in these regions are consistently low (11), leading some to conclude that anthropogenic N inputs in the northern temperate zone exceed naturally occurring BNF and preindustrial atmospheric N deposition by an order of magnitude or more (1, 14). By contrast, the highest rates of naturally occurring BNF have been thought to occur in the evergreen lowland tropical rainforest biome (11), implying that, on a regional basis, human alteration of the tropical N cycle has been comparatively modest. However, in recent years, the tropics have seen some of the most dramatic increases in anthropogenic N inputs of any region on Earth—a trend that is likely to continue (2, 6, 13). Anthropogenic N inputs are increasing in tropical regions, primarily because of increasing fossil fuel combustion (13) and expanding high-N-input agriculture for both food and biofuels (6). These anthropogenic N inputs are having a measurable effect on tropical ecosystems (15). However, understanding and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic N depend, in part, on accurate estimates of BNF in lowland tropical rainforest.Unfortunately, the paradigm that the tropics have high rates of BNF is based on a paucity of evidence and several tenuous assumptions. For example, an early global synthesis of terrestrial BNF (11)—which included contributions from both symbiotic and free-living sources—included only one measured estimate of symbiotic BNF from tropical forest (16 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) (16). That single estimate, scaled over thousands of square kilometers, represented the only direct evidence of high tropical BNF rates available at that time (Fig. 1). Subsequent modeled estimates (17) that indirectly estimated BNF have reinforced the notion that tropical BNF rates are high and dominated by the symbiotic form of fixation (Fig. 1). Such high estimates of symbiotic BNF are consistent with the large number of leguminous trees in tropical forest (18–20). However, many legume species do not form N-fixing nodules (21), and of those species that do, nodulation in individuals varies with soil nutrient status, N demand, and tree age (22). Several recent analyses (10, 22–24) indicate lower tropical forest BNF and suggest that symbiotic BNF may not be as important to total BNF as previously thought (Fig. 1), although few studies have simultaneously measured symbiotic and free-living BNF.Open in a separate windowFig. 1.Previous estimates of BNF in tropical rainforest and BNF measured in this study. Percentages indicate the proportion of total BNF from symbiotic BNF. Cleveland et al. 1999 A (11) is a literature database-derived estimate of tropical forest BNF; Cleveland et al. 1999 B (11) is a modeled estimate of BNF based on the correlation between net primary productivity (NPP) and BNF derived with remotely sensed NPP and evergreen broadleaved forest (EBF) land cover classification. Central estimates and variance for Cleveland et al., 1999 A (11) and Reed et al. 2011 (10) represent the low, central, and high data-based estimates of BNF assuming 5%, 15%, and 15% legume cover, respectively. Central estimates and variance for Wang and Houlton 2009 (17) represent the modeled mean and SD of BNF predicted for the EBF biome. Central estimates and variance for Cleveland et al. 2010 (23) represent the low, central, and high estimates of symbiotic BNF plus free-living BNF or modeled BNF plus free-living BNF. Central estimates and variance for BNF in the four forest ages measured here (primary, 5–15 y, 15–30 y, and 30–50 y) represent means ± 1 SD (n = 3). Our estimate of BNF in a dynamic primary forest (gap dynamics) lacks SD, because it consisted of only two measurements: low and high estimates of forest turnover times equal to 150 and 75 y, respectively.There is also a sound theoretical basis for questioning high estimates of BNF in tropical forest. Namely, high concentrations of soil N in the legume-rich tropics create something of a paradox. Although BNF could create N-rich conditions, the substantial energetic cost of BNF means—and some data show—that BNF should be suppressed under high N availability in primary forests (25). Because of high rates of net primary productivity and high N demand in secondary forests (26, 27), regenerating canopy gaps or abandoned agricultural land may have higher rates of BNF than late-successional forest ecosystems (26).Resolving the uncertainty in the tropical (and global) N cycle requires that we overcome the enduring challenge of quantifying BNF in any ecosystem. How do we estimate large-scale rates of a process that displays extreme spatial heterogeneity at local scales? Whether using acetylene reduction assays, ¹⁵N tracer incubations, or the ¹⁵N natural abundance method, most past approaches to empirically estimate symbiotic BNF have relied on spatial extrapolations of BNF rates measured at the level of individual trees. Typically, such extrapolations are based on legume abundance (e.g., percent cover) and make species- or genera-level assumptions about nodulation status of putative N fixers. Here, we applied a method commonly used by community ecologists to measure rare species abundances—stratified adaptive cluster sampling (SACS) (28)—to measure symbiotic BNF. This approach could be used in any ecosystem, and in contrast to other methods, SACS generates unbiased estimates of mean symbiotic BNF (independent of legume abundance) and can more robustly capture the irregular distribution of nodules on the landscape. We simultaneously measured symbiotic and free-living BNF multiple times over the course of 1 y to generate spatially explicit rates of BNF inputs in primary and secondary (5–50 y old) lowland tropical forest in Costa Rica and then used the understanding gained from those estimates to revisit estimates of BNF and anthropogenic N inputs in the tropical forest biome.     

Evaluating glucose-lowering treatment in older people with diabetes: Lessons from the IMPERIUM trial

Understanding the benefits and risks of treatments to be used by older individuals (≥65 years old) is critical for informed therapeutic decisions. Glucose-lowering therapy for older patients with diabetes should be tailored to suit their clinical condition, comorbidities and impaired functional status, including varying degrees of frailty. However, despite the rapidly growing population of older adults with diabetes, there are few dedicated clinical trials evaluating glucose-lowering treatment in older people. Conducting clinical trials in the older population poses multiple significant challenges. Despite the general agreement that individualizing treatment goals and avoiding hypoglycaemia is paramount for the therapy of older people with diabetes, there are conflicting perspectives on specific glycaemic targets that should be adopted and on use of specific drugs and treatment strategies. Assessment of functional status, frailty and comorbidities is not routinely performed in diabetes trials, contributing to insufficient characterization of older study participants. Moreover, significant operational barriers and problems make successful enrolment and completion of such studies difficult. In this review paper, we summarize the current guidelines and literature on conducting such trials, as well as the learnings from our own clinical trial (IMPERIUM) that assessed different glucose-lowering strategies in older people with type 2 diabetes. We discuss the importance of strategies to improve study design, enrolment and attrition. Apart from summarizing some practical advice to facilitate the successful conduct of studies, we highlight key gaps and needs that warrant further research.     

Transcatheter biventricular conversion in an adult patient with a 1.5 ventricle Glenn palliation and superior vena cava syndrome

Covered stents have a continually expanding spectrum of applications for patients with congenital heart disease. Here we report use of covered stents to successfully perform a first‐in‐human percutaneous biventricular conversion of a 1.5 ventricle Glenn palliation in an adult born with pulmonary atresia. This case demonstrates that in patients considered borderline for biventricular repair, surgery can potentially be modified to promote growth of underdeveloped structures and setup for transcatheter biventricular conversion.