Estimation of markov chain transition probabilities and rates from fully and partially observed data: uncertainty propagation, evidence synthesis, and model calibration.

Markov transition models are frequently used to model disease progression. The authors show how the solution to Kolmogorov's forward equations can be exploited to map between transition rates and probabilities from probability data in multistate models. They provide a uniform, Bayesian treatment of estimation and propagation of uncertainty of transition rates and probabilities when 1) observations are available on all transitions and exact time at risk in each state (fully observed data) and 2) observations are on initial state and final state after a fixed interval of time but not on the sequence of transitions (partially observed data). The authors show how underlying transition rates can be recovered from partially observed data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in WinBUGS, and they suggest diagnostics to investigate inconsistencies between evidence from different starting states. An illustrative example for a 3-state model is given, which shows how the methods extend to more complex Markov models using the software WBDiff to compute solutions. Finally, the authors illustrate how to statistically combine data from multiple sources, including partially observed data at several follow-up times and also how to calibrate a Markov model to be consistent with data from one specific study.     

Expression of fibrinogen receptors during activation and subsequent desensitization of human platelets by epinephrine

Epinephrine causes platelet aggregation and secretion by interacting with alpha 2-adrenergic receptors on the platelet surface. Platelet aggregation requires the binding of fibrinogen to a specific receptor on the membrane glycoprotein IIb-IIIa complex. Although the IIb-IIIa complex is identifiable on the surface of resting platelets, the fibrinogen receptor is expressed only after platelet activation. The current studies were designed to examine the effect of occupancy of platelet alpha 2-adrenergic receptors by epinephrine on the expression of fibrinogen receptors and on the aggregation of platelets. The ability of epinephrine to induce the expression of fibrinogen receptors was studied under two different conditions: acute stimulation (less than 1 min) and prolonged stimulation (50 to 90 min), the latter of which is associated with a reduction or "desensitization" of the platelet aggregation response. Expression of the fibrinogen receptor was monitored with 125I-fibrinogen as well as with 125I-PAC-1 (PAC-1), a monoclonal antibody that binds to the glycoprotein IIb-IIIa complex only after platelets are activated. Epinephrine caused an immediate increase in PAC-1 and fibrinogen binding that was dependent on occupancy of the alpha 2-receptor by epinephrine and on the presence of extracellular free Ca (KCa = 30 mumol/L). By itself, 1 mmol/L Mg was unable to support induction of the fibrinogen receptor by epinephrine. However, it did decrease the Ca requirement by about two orders of magnitude. Prolonged stimulation of unstirred platelets by epinephrine led to a 70% decrease in the aggregation response when the platelets were subsequently stirred. Despite their decreased aggregation response, desensitized platelets bound PAC-1 and fibrinogen normally, indicating that the loss of aggregation was not due simply to a decrease in fibrinogen receptor expression. Although desensitization was not affected by pretreatment of the platelets with aspirin, it was partially prevented when extracellular Ca was chelated by EDTA during the long incubation with epinephrine. These studies demonstrate that once platelet alpha 2-adrenergic receptors are occupied by epinephrine, extracellular Ca is involved in initiating the aggregation response by supporting the induction of the fibrinogen receptor and the binding of fibrinogen. Furthermore. Ca-dependent reactions subsequent to fibrinogen binding may be necessary for maximal platelet aggregation and are impaired when platelets become desensitized to epinephrine.     

Glycoprotein Ib and glycoprotein IX are fully complexed in the intact platelet membrane

Two new murine monoclonal antibodies, AK 1 and SZ 1, reactive with the human platelet glycoprotein (GP) Ib-IX complex have been produced by the hybridoma technique. Both AK 1 and SZ 1 immunoprecipitated the GP Ib-IX complex from Triton X-100-solubilized, periodate-labeled platelets. With trypsinized, labeled platelets, AK 1, SZ 1, and FMC 25 (epitope on GP IX) immunoprecipitated a membrane-bound proteolytic fragment of the GP Ib-IX complex consisting of GP IX and an congruent to 25,000 mol wt remnant of the alpha-chain of GP lb disulfide-linked to the beta-subunit. Unexpectedly, although AK 1 and SZ 1 immunoprecipitated purified GP Ib-IX complex, neither antibody immunoprecipitated the individual components of this complex, GP Ib or GP IX. When GP Ib and GP IX were recombined, however, AK 1 and SZ 1 again immunoprecipitated the reformed complex, strongly suggesting that both antibodies were recognizing an epitope present only on the intact complex. Cross-blocking studies indicated that AK 1 and SZ 1 recognized a very similar or identical epitope that was proximal to the epitope for FMC 25. Both AK 1 and SZ 1 bound to a similar number of binding sites (congruent to 25,000) on intact platelets as monoclonal antibodies directed against either GP lb or GP IX. The combined data suggests that GP lb and GP IX are fully complexed in the intact platelet membrane.     

Informant ratings of cognitive decline of elderly people: relationship to longitudinal change on cognitive tests

Formal assessment of cognitive decline with cognitive tests can be difficult, requiring either two measurement points or a comparison of 'hold' with 'don't hold' tests. Informant-based assessment provides an alternative approach because informants can adopt a longitudinal perspective and directly rate cognitive change. A study was carried out to assess the validity of informant ratings collected by means of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). A community sample of 500 subjects aged 74 or over underwent four cognitive tests on two occasions 3½ years apart. On the second occasion, informants filled out the IQCODE. Subjects rated as having moderate or severe decline were found to have greater change on the cognitive tests. These findings support the validity of informant ratings of cognitive decline.     

Low caloric expenditure in cardiac rehabilitation

BACKGROUND: Total physical activity energy expenditure is a determinant of weight loss and risk factor modification in adults. There has been very little study of physical activity energy expenditure in cardiac rehabilitation populations. METHODS: Exercise-related energy expenditure was calculated in 112 patients with coronary artery disease in an outpatient cardiac rehabilitation program. Gross energy expenditure was estimated with the heart rate/oxygen consumption relation as measured during metabolic exercise testing with expired gas analysis. RESULTS: The average exercise training energy expenditure (ETEE) per cardiac rehabilitation exercise session was quite low at 270 +/- 112 kcal. Baseline fitness level (peak oxygen consumption), body weight, total exercise duration per session, age, and body mass index were all significant determinants of ETEE (r = 0.56 to -0.37, all P <.01). Additionally, patients who had undergone coronary bypass surgery and patients with medical comorbidities expended significantly fewer calories during exercise. In women, there was a relation between ETEE and change in total and LDL cholesterol (r = -0.43 and -0.45, respectively), although no such relation was observed in men. CONCLUSION: Cardiac rehabilitation exercise training, as currently structured, burns surprisingly few calories and has little impact in the short term (3 months) on measures of obesity and lipid risk factors. Alternative training programs should be considered to maximize caloric expenditure and modify specific risk factors such as obesity and dyslipidemia.     

Managing abnormal blood lipids: a collaborative approach

Current data and guidelines recommend treating abnormal blood lipids (ABL) to goal. This is a complex process and requires involvement from various healthcare professionals with a wide range of expertise. The model of a multidisciplinary case management approach for patients with ABL is well documented and described. This collaborative approach encompasses primary and secondary prevention across the lifespan, incorporates nutritional and exercise management as a significant component, defines the importance and indications for pharmacological therapy, and emphasizes the importance of adherence. Use of this collaborative approach for the treatment of ABL ultimately will improve cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality.     

磁共振形态学半定量评分对新生儿细菌性脑膜炎出院结局的评估价值

目的 分析MRI形态学半定量评分对新生儿细菌性脑膜炎出院结局的评估价值。方法 收集复旦大学附属儿科医院2011年7月至2013年12月NICU收治的出院诊断为新生儿细菌性脑膜炎的病例,采用基于大脑损伤MRI形态学分析的半定量评分,对头颅MRI图像进行回顾性分析。MRI形态学评价包括脑室扩大、脑室旁白质容积丢失、脑白质囊性病灶、内囊后肢髓鞘化异常、皮质信号异常、颅内脑外间隙异常、基底节信号异常、脑白质非囊性信号异常、脑室内出血、脑室积脓、脑膜异常强化、室管膜异常强化和脑脓肿。将上述13项评分归纳为脑白质异常（WMA）、脑灰质异常（GMA）和非脑实质异常（NPA）。同时采集患儿出生孕周、发病时间、MRI检查时间、发病至MRI检查间隔时间和出院结局。按照出生孕周分为早产儿组和足月儿组,再按照出院结局分为预后良好和预后不良亚组,在各组内比较亚组之间时间因素、MRI单项评分和综合评分的差异。结果 63例新生儿细菌性脑膜炎病例进入分析（早产儿组18例,足月儿组45例）。MRI单项评分构成预后良好和预后不良亚组间差异有统计学意义的指标：早产儿组中有脑室扩大(P=0.012)和脑室旁白质容积丢失(P=0.004);足月儿组有脑室扩大(P=0.002)、脑室旁容积丢失(P=0.040)、颅内脑外间隙异常(P=0.005)和脑室内出血(P=0.038)。MRI综合评分中,早产儿组WMA评分(P=0.001)和NPA评分（P=0.039）、足月儿组NPA评分(P=0.018)在预后不良和预后良好亚组之间分布差异有统计学意义。足月儿组和早产儿组内不同预后亚组的各时间因素差异未发现统计学意义或临床意义。结论 新生儿细菌性脑膜炎MRI脑室扩大和脑室旁白质容积丢失预示早产儿出院不良结局;脑室扩大、脑室旁白质容积丢失、颅内脑外间隙异常和脑室内出血预示足月儿出院不良结局。WMA评分高预示早产儿出院不良结局,NPA评分高预示早产儿和足月儿出院不良结局。