Value of risk scores in the decision to palliate patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Background

The aim of this study was to develop a 48‐h mortality risk score, which included morphology data, for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm presenting to an emergency department, and to assess its predictive accuracy and clinical effectiveness in triaging patients to immediate aneurysm repair, transfer or palliative care.

Methods

Data from patients in the IMPROVE (Immediate Management of the Patient With Ruptured Aneurysm: Open Versus Endovascular Repair) randomized trial were used to develop the risk score. Variables considered included age, sex, haemodynamic markers and aortic morphology. Backwards selection was used to identify relevant predictors. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration plots and the C‐statistic. Validation of the newly developed and other previously published scores was conducted in four external populations. The net benefit of treating patients based on a risk threshold compared with treating none was quantified.

Results

Data from 536 patients in the IMPROVE trial were included. The final variables retained were age, sex, haemoglobin level, serum creatinine level, systolic BP, aortic neck length and angle, and acute myocardial ischaemia. The discrimination of the score for 48‐h mortality in the IMPROVE data was reasonable (C‐statistic 0·710, 95 per cent c.i. 0·659 to 0·760), but varied in external populations (from 0·652 to 0·761). The new score outperformed other published risk scores in some, but not all, populations. An 8 (95 per cent c.i. 5 to 11) per cent improvement in the C‐statistic was estimated compared with using age alone.

Conclusion

The assessed risk scores did not have sufficient accuracy to enable potentially life‐saving decisions to be made regarding intervention. Focus should therefore shift to offering repair to more patients and reducing non‐intervention rates, while respecting the wishes of the patient and family.     

Transfusion transmission of HCV infection before anti-HCV testing of blood donations in England: results of the national HCV lookback program

BACKGROUND : An HCV lookback program started in England in 1995.
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS : Data from all English blood centers were collated to describe the outcomes of the HCV lookback program in England and to create a retrospective cohort for study. Numbers of recipients identified, numbers that were tested, and numbers that were found to be HCV infected were summarized. The data set created was used to describe the outcomes of the lookback and the HCV infections detected.
RESULTS : A total of 4424 recipients of 9222 blood components made before donation testing for anti-HCV from the donations of 1286 donors found, on subsequent testing, to be anti-HCV positive or indeterminate were identified. Of these, 1351 blood recipients were reported as having been traced for testing. Fifty percent of tested recipients were found to be HCV infected. Factors positively associated with HCV infection in tested recipients were more recent year of transfusion and PCR positivity of the donor at the time of their testing.
CONCLUSION S: The majority of components entering lookback did not result in a tested recipient. However, this lookback has identified a large group of HCV- infected individuals. Follow-up of this group for disease progression will inform the natural history of HCV infection.     

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on global influenza surveillance: Insights from 18 National Influenza Centers based on a survey conducted between November 2021 and March 2022

Background

National Influenza Centers (NICs) have played a crucial role in the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. The FluCov project, covering 22 countries, was initiated to monitor the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on influenza activity.

Methods

This project consisted of an epidemiological bulletin and NIC survey. The survey, designed to assess the impact of the pandemic on the influenza surveillance system, was shared with 36 NICs located across 22 countries. NICs were invited to reply between November 2021 and March 2022.

Results

We received 18 responses from NICs in 14 countries. Most NICs (76%) indicated that the number of samples tested for influenza decreased. Yet, many NICs (60%) were able to increase their laboratory testing capacity and the “robustness” (e.g., number of sentinel sites) (59%) of their surveillance systems. In addition, sample sources (e.g., hospital or outpatient setting) shifted. All NICs reported a higher burden of work following the onset of the pandemic, with some NICs hiring additional staff or partial outsourcing to other institutes or departments. Many NICs anticipate the future integration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance into the existing respiratory surveillance system.

Discussion

The survey shows the profound impact of SARS-CoV-2 on national influenza surveillance in the first 27 months of the pandemic. Surveillance activities were temporarily disrupted, whilst priority was given to SARS-CoV-2. However, most NICs have shown rapid adaptive capacity underlining the importance of strong national influenza surveillance systems. These developments have the potential to benefit global respiratory surveillance in the years to come; however, questions about sustainability remain.     

Rotavirus mortality in India: estimates based on a nationally representative survey of diarrhoeal deaths

Objective

To estimate the number of rotavirus-associated deaths among Indian children younger than five years.

Methods

We surveyed more than 23 000 child deaths from a nationally representative survey of 1.1 million Indian households during 2001–2003. Diarrhoeal deaths were characterized by region, age and sex and were combined with the proportion of deaths attributable to rotavirus, as determined by hospital microbiologic data collected by the Indian Rotavirus Strain Surveillance Network from December 2005 to November 2007. Rotavirus vaccine efficacy data from clinical trials in developing countries were used to estimate the number of deaths preventable by a national vaccination programme. Data were analysed using Stata SE version 10.

Findings

Rotavirus caused an estimated 113 000 deaths (99% confidence interval, CI: 86 000–155 000); 50% (54 700) and 75% (85 400) occurred before one and two years of age, respectively. One child in 242 died from rotavirus infection before five years of age. Rotavirus-associated mortality rates overall, among girls and among boys were 4.14 (99% CI: 3.14–5.68), 4.89 (99% CI: 3.75–6.79) and 3.45 (99% CI: 2.58–4.66) deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Rates were highest in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which together accounted for > 50% of deaths (64 400) nationally. Rotavirus vaccine could prevent 41 000–48 000 deaths among children aged 3–59 months.

Conclusion

The burden of rotavirus-associated mortality is high among Indian children, highlighting the potential benefits of rotavirus vaccination.     

Accessibility and screening uptake rates for gestational diabetes mellitus in Ireland

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as any degree of glucose intolerance with onset or first recognition during pregnancy and is associated with a range of maternal and neonatal complications and conditions. Given increasing levels of prevalence worldwide, there are growing calls for the implementation of screening practices to identify and treat positive GDM cases. This paper uses a unique dataset to investigate the role of healthcare centre accessibility on the decision to attend for screening, employing geographic information systems, econometric and simulation techniques. We focus on the extent to which 'travel distance to screening hospital site' impacts upon the individual's screen uptake decision, whether significant geographic inequalities exist in relation to accessibility to screening, and the likely impact on uptake rates of providing screening services at a local level via primary care. Our findings have important implications for the provision of GDM screening services.