Risk prediction platform for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using artificial intelligence

BACKGROUND Despite advancements in operative technique and improvements in postoperative managements,postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF) is a life-threatening complication following pancreatoduodenectomy(PD).There are some reports to predict POPF preoperatively or intraoperatively,but the accuracy of those is questionable.Artificial intelligence(AI) technology is being actively used in the medical field,but few studies have reported applying it to outcomes after PD.AIM To develop a risk prediction platform for POPF using an AI model.METHODS Medical records were reviewed from 1769 patients at Samsung Medical Center who underwent PD from 2007 to 2016.A total of 38 variables were inserted into AI-driven algorithms.The algorithms tested to make the risk prediction platform were random forest(RF) and a neural network(NN) with or without recursive feature elimination(RFE).The median imputation method was used for missing values.The area under the curve(AUC) was calculated to examine the discriminative power of algorithm for POPF prediction.RESULTS The number of POPFs was 221(12.5%) according to the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula definition 2016.After median imputation,AUCs using 38 variables were 0.68 ± 0.02 with RF and 0.71 ± 0.02 with NN.The maximal AUC using NN with RFE was 0.74.Sixteen risk factors for POPF were identified by AI algorithm:Pancreatic duct diameter,body mass index,preoperative serum albumin,lipase level,amount of intraoperative fluid infusion,age,platelet count,extrapancreatic location of tumor,combined venous resection,co-existing pancreatitis,neoadjuvant radiotherapy,American Society of Anesthesiologists' score,sex,soft texture of the pancreas,underlying heart disease,and preoperative endoscopic biliary decompression.We developed a web-based POPF prediction platform,and this application is freely available at http://popfrisk.smchbp.org.CONCLUSION This study is the first to predict POPF with multiple risk factors using AI.This platform is reliable(AUC 0.74),so it could be used to select patients who need especially intense therapy and to preoperatively establish an effective treatment strategy.     

Clinically Useful Diagnostic Tool of Contrast Enhanced Ultrasonography for Focal Liver Masses: Comparison to Computed Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Background/Aims

To evaluate the diagnostic value of contrast (SonoVue®) enhancement ultrasonography (CEUS) and to compare this method with computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in evaluating liver masses.

Methods

CEUS (n=50), CT (n=47), and MRI (n=43) were performed on 50 liver masses in 48 patients for baseline mass characterization. The most likely impression for each modality and the final diagnosis, based on the combined biopsy results (n=14), angiography findings (n=36), and clinical course, were determined. The diagnostic value of CEUS was compared to those of CT and MRI.

Results

The final diagnosis of the masses was hepatocellular carcinoma (n=43), hemangioma (n=3), benign adenoma (n=2), eosinophilic abscess (n=1), and liver metastasis (n=1). The overall diagnostic agreement with the final diagnosis was substantial for CEUS, CT, and MRI, with κ values of 0.621, 0.763, and 0.784, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 83.3%, 87.5%, and 84.0%, respectively, for CEUS; 95.0%, 87.5%, and 93.8%, respectively, for CT; and 94.6%, 83.3%, and 93.0%, respectively for MRI. After excluding the lesions with poor acoustic sonographic windows, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for CEUS were 94.6%, 87.5%, and 93.3%, respectively, with a κ value of 0.765.

Conclusions

If an appropriate acoustic window is available, CEUS is comparable to CT and MRI for the diagnosis of liver masses.     

Association between muscle strength and metabolic syndrome in older Korean men and women: the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging

The objective of the study was to investigate the association between metabolic syndrome (MS) and muscle strength in community-dwelling older men and women in Korea. Korean men and women 65 years and older living in a single, typical South Korean city (n = 647) were enrolled in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging study. The diagnosis of MS was evaluated according to the definition of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Isokinetic muscle strength of the knee extensors, as determined by peak torque per body weight (newton meter per kilogram) and hand-grip strength per body weight (newton per kilogram), was measured. Participants without MS had greater leg muscle strength and grip strength per weight. The effect of MS on muscle strength was more prominent in men than in women in our study population. Only men showed a significant interaction between MS and age for muscle strength (P = .014), and the effect was greater in men aged 65 to 74 years compared with those older than 75 years (119.2 ± 31.2 vs 134.5 ± 24.3 N m/kg). Participants with MS had weaker knee extensor strength after controlling the covariates (β = -90.80, P = .003), and the interaction term (age × MS × male sex) was significant (β = 1.00, P = .017). Metabolic syndrome is associated with muscle weakness, and this relationship is particularly pronounced in men. Age can modify the impact of MS on muscle strength. Men aged 65 to 74 years with MS need a thorough assessment of muscle strength to prevent disability.     

Important predictor of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease

Prognosis is an essential part of the baseline assessment of any disease. For predicting prognosis of end-stage liver disease, many prognostic models were proposed. Child-Pugh score has been the reference for assessing the prognosis of cirrhosis for about three decades in end-stage liver disease. Despite of several limitations, recent large systematic review showed that Child-Pugh score was still robust predictors and it''s components (bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin time) were followed by Child-Pugh score. Recently, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score emerged as a "modern" alternative to Child-Pugh score. The MELD score has been an important role to accurately predict the severity of liver disease and effectively assess the risk of mortality. Due to several weakness of MELD score, new modified MELD scores (MELD-Na, Delta MELD) have been developed and validated. This review summarizes the current knowledge about the prognostic factors in end-stage liver disease, focusing on the role of Child-Pugh and MELD score.     

Role of radical surgery in patients with stage IV gallbladder cancer

Objectives

The role of surgery in stage IV gallbladder (GB) cancer is not well established. This study analyses prognostic factors in patients with stage IV GB cancer following surgical resection with the aim of identifying a subgroup of patients who might benefit from surgical resection.

Methods

Clinicopathological details were analysed for 94 patients who were surgically treated for stage IV GB cancer at Seoul National University Hospital.

Results

Median survival was 8 months in patients with either stage IVa or IVb disease. Sixteen patients (17.0%) underwent resection with curative intent, which increased overall survival over that in patients undergoing palliative surgery (P < 0.001). No survival benefit was seen following surgery with curative intent in patients with stage IVa disease (P = 0.764). Surgery with curative intent resulted in a survival benefit in patients with stage IVb disease, patients with an isolated liver metastasis near the GB bed (median survival: 31 months vs. 9 months; P < 0.001) and patients with limited numbers of peritoneal implantations (median survival: 20 months vs. 6 months; P = 0.002). Preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (P = 0.018), surgery with curative intent (P = 0.045) and adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.002) were independent prognostic factors in patients with stage IV GB cancer.

Conclusions

Surgery in combination with systemic chemotherapy may be beneficial in carefully selected patients with stage IVb GB cancer.     

A case of lateral abdominal wall hematoma treated with transcatheter arterial embolization

Paracentesis is a diagnostic, therapeutic procedure performed in patients with ascites. It is generally thought to be a safe procedure and transfusion of platelet concentrate or fresh frozen plasma is not recommended before the procedure, because the incidence of clinically significant bleeding is very low. We report a case of lateral abdominal wall hematoma due to the injury of the deep circumflex iliac artery after paracentesis in patient with alcoholic liver cirrhosis who was treated with transcatheter arterial embolization.