Prediction of response to antiretroviral therapy by human experts and by the EuResist data‐driven expert system (the EVE study)

Objectives

The EuResist expert system is a novel data‐driven online system for computing the probability of 8‐week success for any given pair of HIV‐1 genotype and combination antiretroviral therapy regimen plus optional patient information. The objective of this study was to compare the EuResist system vs. human experts (EVE) for the ability to predict response to treatment.

Methods

The EuResist system was compared with 10 HIV‐1 drug resistance experts for the ability to predict 8‐week response to 25 treatment cases derived from the EuResist database validation data set. All current and past patient data were made available to simulate clinical practice. The experts were asked to provide a qualitative and quantitative estimate of the probability of treatment success.

Results

There were 15 treatment successes and 10 treatment failures. In the classification task, the number of mislabelled cases was six for EuResist and 6–13 for the human experts [mean±standard deviation (SD) 9.1±1.9]. The accuracy of EuResist was higher than the average for the experts (0.76 vs. 0.64, respectively). The quantitative estimates computed by EuResist were significantly correlated (Pearson r=0.695, P<0.0001) with the mean quantitative estimates provided by the experts. However, the agreement among experts was only moderate (for the classification task, inter‐rater κ=0.355; for the quantitative estimation, mean±SD coefficient of variation=55.9±22.4%).

Conclusions

With this limited data set, the EuResist engine performed comparably to or better than human experts. The system warrants further investigation as a treatment‐decision support tool in clinical practice.     

Extensive nodular cutaneous amyloidosis: an unusual presentation

Amyloidosis is characterized by the deposition of a group of unrelated proteins leading to changes in tissue architecture and function. The nodular variant is the rarest form of the cutaneous amyloidoses. We report a patient with localized nodular amyloidosis without systemic amyloid involvement or paraproteinaemia after 6 years of follow-up. The unusual aspects of our case were a plaque presentation rather than nodular, and the disseminated pattern observed.     

海南省性罪错妇女11年性病感染情况调查分析

目的 通过对11年来性罪错人员性病感染情况的调查分析,掌握性病在性罪错妇女中流行的特点,为政府部门对性病防治政策的制定提供科学依据。方法 对1990年元月至2000年12月海南省妇女收容教育所被收教的性罪错妇女进行性病检查,统计其各种性病的发病人数,然后进行分析。结果 11年中共收教4780人,其中感染淋病、非淋菌性尿道炎(宫颈炎)、尖锐湿疣、梅毒、生殖器疱疹、HIV共2967例,阳性率为62．07％,其中非淋菌性尿道炎(宫颈炎)1826例(38．20％)、淋病469例(9、81％)、梅毒414例(8．7％)、尖锐湿疣246例(5．14％)、生殖器疱疹11例(0．23％)、HIV阳性1例(0．02%)。结论 性罪错妇女六种性病的患病率很高,达62．07％,其中非淋菌性尿道炎(宫颈炎)为其主要病种,淋病的患病率逐年下降,梅毒的患病率逐年上升,尖锐湿疣基本稳定,其流行特点值得我们重视。     

甲状腺机能亢进症危险因素病例对照研究

目的 探讨各危险因素与甲亢的关系。方法 对三亚地区110例甲亢采用1：2配比的病例对照研究,资料处理采用条件Logistic回归分析.结果 甲亢发病与下列5因素关系密切：家庭年收入(OR=2．055)、食用碘盐(OR=2．133)、喜食海产品(OR=2．183)、感染(OR=2．382)、家庭生活事件(OR=3．017) 结论 家庭生活事件、感染、喜食海产品、食用碘盐、家庭年收入增高等是甲亢的危险因素。