Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.     

Neuromodulation in Psychiatric disorders: Experimental and Clinical evidence for reward and motivation network Deep Brain Stimulation: Focus on the medial forebrain bundle

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) in psychiatric illnesses has been clinically tested over the past 20 years. The clinical application of DBS to the superolateral branch of the medial forebrain bundle in treatment‐resistant depressed patients—one of several targets under investigation—has shown to be promising in a number of uncontrolled open label trials. However, there are remain numerous questions that need to be investigated to understand and optimize the clinical use of DBS in depression, including, for example, the relationship between the symptoms, the biological substrates/projections and the stimulation itself. In the context of precision and customized medicine, the current paper focuses on clinical and experimental research of medial forebrain bundle DBS in depression or in animal models of depression, demonstrating how clinical and scientific progress can work in tandem to test the therapeutic value and investigate the mechanisms of this experimental treatment. As one of the hypotheses is that depression engenders changes in the reward and motivational networks, the review looks at how stimulation of the medial forebrain bundle impacts the dopaminergic system.     

Using Center-Specific Medicare Data to Compare Cancer Care Outcomes: Are We Seeing the Whole Playing Field or Just a Blade of Grass

Annals of Surgical Oncology -     

Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak . After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security.     

Safety profile of the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine: Pooled analysis of two large randomised phase 3 trials

Background

The ZOE-50 (NCT01165177) and ZOE-70 (NCT01165229) phase 3 clinical trials showed that the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) was ≥90% efficacious in preventing herpes zoster in adults. Here we present a comprehensive overview of the safety data from these studies.

Trade-offs between acquired and innate immune defenses in humans

Immune defenses provide resistance against infectious disease that is critical to survival. But immune defenses are costly, and limited resources allocated to immunity are not available for other physiological or developmental processes. We propose a framework for explaining variation in patterns of investment in two important subsystems of anti-pathogen defense: innate (non-specific) and acquired (specific) immunity. The developmental costs of acquired immunity are high, but the costs of maintenance and activation are relatively low. Innate immunity imposes lower upfront developmental costs, but higher operating costs. Innate defenses are mobilized quickly and are effective against novel pathogens. Acquired responses are less effective against novel exposures, but more effective against secondary exposures due to immunological memory. Based on their distinct profiles of costs and effectiveness, we propose that the balance of investment in innate versus acquired immunity is variable, and that this balance is optimized in response to local ecological conditions early in development. Nutritional abundance, high pathogen exposure and low signals of extrinsic mortality risk during sensitive periods of immune development should all favor relatively higher levels of investment in acquired immunity. Undernutrition, low pathogen exposure, and high mortality risk should favor innate immune defenses. The hypothesis provides a framework for organizing prior empirical research on the impact of developmental environments on innate and acquired immunity, and suggests promising directions for future research in human ecological immunology.     

Ebola Virus RNA Stability in Human Blood and Urine in West Africa’s Environmental Conditions

We evaluated RNA stability of Ebola virus in EDTA blood and urine samples collected from infected patients and stored in West Africa’s environmental conditions. In blood, RNA was stable for at least 18 days when initial cycle threshold values were <30, but in urine, RNA degradation occurred more quickly.