Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

Background

We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established.

Methods

The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared.

Results

At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences.

Conclusions

We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

     

Invasive papillary adenocarcinoma of the colon

Colonic adenocarcinomas are among the most common type of tumors. In this report, we present the morphologic, immunohistochemical, and microsatellite findings of 2 cases with a distinct invasive papillary component. Both tumors arose from polyps in middle-aged patients, followed an aggressive course, and showed a superficial adenomatous component. The immunohistochemical stains showed that the tumor cells were negative for p27 and p53; both tumors were microsatellite stable, that is, with no microsatellite instability in the 6 markers studied, and there was no loss of the mismatch repair proteins hMSH2 or hMLH1. These findings suggest that these tumors follow the tumor-suppressor pathway and represent an aggressive subtype of colonic adenocarcinoma.     

Glyceryl trinitrate treatment of chronic fissure in ano: one year's experience with 0.5% GTN paste

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of the efficacy of topical 0.5% glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) paste in the treatment of chronic fissures in ano. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-five patients were treated with 0.5% GTN paste and reviewed at 3, 6 and 12 weeks to assess symptoms, side effects and fissure healing. RESULTS: At 6 weeks, 73% of patients had no fissures. In 27% of cases treatment was unsuccessful. At three month follow up there was no early recurrence. The prevalence of headaches was 84% with 11% headache related non-compliance. CONCLUSIONS: The use of 0.5% GTN induces rapid healing of chronic anal fissures with a 73% healing rate in this study. Successful treatment may come at the expense of a high incidence of headaches and a lower compliance than found in studies involving a lower concentration of GTN. A balance is required between fissure healing and headache intolerance.     

A high-fat meal impairs muscle vasodilatation response to mental stress in humans with Glu27 β<Subscript>2</Subscript>-adrenoceptor polymorphism

Background  

Forearm blood flow responses during mental stress are greater in individuals homozygous for the Glu27 allele. A high-fat meal is associated with impaired endothelium-dependent dilatation. We investigated the impact of high-fat ingestion on the muscle vasodilatory responses during mental stress in individuals with the Glu27 allele and those with the Gln27 allele of the β₂-adrenoceptor gene.     

Propensity scores in the presence of effect modification: A case study using the comparison of mortality on hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis

Purpose  

To control for confounding bias from non-random treatment assignment in observational data, both traditional multivariable models and more recently propensity score approaches have been applied. Our aim was to compare a propensity score-stratified model with a traditional multivariable-adjusted model, specifically in estimating survival of hemodialysis (HD) versus peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.     

Impact of the maze procedure on the stroke rate in patients with atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation, even in high-risk patients, can be reduced significantly by adequate anticoagulation. However, anticoagulation does not abolish the stroke rate, and unfortunately only 40% of patients with atrial fibrillation actually receive anticoagulant therapy, even in areas where adequate health care is available. METHODS: During the past 11.5 years, we have performed the maze procedure for the treatment of medically refractory atrial fibrillation in 306 patients, 58 of whom presented with a history of having had a stroke (n = 40) or transient ischemic attack (n = 18) before surgery. All patients with atrial fibrillation are at an increased risk for these complications, but they are especially prevalent in those patients with previous thromboembolic events and those with other recognized risk factors. RESULTS: Among the 306 patients who had surgery, there were only 2 perioperative strokes (0. 7%), and in the 265 patients followed for up to 11.5 years after the maze procedure, there has been only 1 late minor stroke that has now completely resolved. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of the maze procedure to decrease the risk of stroke associated with atrial fibrillation so dramatically is likely due to the restoring of sinus rhythm and atrial transport function in combination with surgical removal or obliteration of the left atrial appendage, where most thrombi associated with atrial fibrillation develop.