Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches

AimTo facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches.MethodWe used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0.ResultsThe R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27-2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for the early epidemic stages, it was outperformed by the Heidler function fit. HWS achieved accurate short-term predictions and depended the least on model entry parameters. Neither model performed well across the entire observed period, which was characterized by multiple wave-form events, influenced by the re-opening for the tourist season during the summer, mandatory masks use in closed spaces, and numerous measures introduced in retail stores and public places. However, an extension of the Heidler function achieved the best overall fit.ConclusionsPredicting future epidemic events remains difficult because modeling relies on the accuracy of the information on population structure and micro-environmental exposures, constant changes of the input parameters, varying societal adherence to anti-epidemic measures, and changes in the biological interactions of the virus and hosts.

Epidemiological modeling is one of the main tools in infectious disease epidemic management. The recent COVID-19 pandemic is no exception, despite the prevalent neglect of evidence-based medicine principles (1,2). One of the most commonly used tools for epidemiological modeling are compartmental models, which assume that the dynamics of an epidemic depends on several discrete states, including susceptible, infected, and recovered status (3). The main advantage of these models includes the possibility of predicting the overall epidemic pattern, and their main limitation is heavy dependence on the input parameters (4,5). Numerous other approaches have been used for this purpose, relying on exploring historical patterns in predicting future events (6). The main disadvantage of such models is dependence on the initial parameters and the inability to capture the timely and relevant information in the population, which raises the need for reliable predictive tools that depend less on the starting assumptions.Therefore, we aimed to compare various methodological approaches to epidemic prediction, with a particular focus on the performance of methods that do not require numerous inputs and rely less on the initial assumptions.     

XPS Study on Calcining Mixtures of Brucite with Titania

In this work, we studied the phases in a Mg-Ti-O system using a 1:1 formulation of MgO:TiO₂, mixing synthetic brucite of Mexican origin with TiO₂ microparticles of high purity, with a heat treatment at 1100 °C for 1 h. Due to its valence electrons, TiO₂ can contribute to the sintering process to improve density in MgO products. The raw materials and formulation by XPS and X-RD techniques were characterized. The results demonstrate the presence of different oxidation states in titania and the formation of different oxides in the Mg-Ti-O system when mixed and calcined at 1100 °C; additionally, we estimated the formation of vacancies in the crystal lattice during the transformation from hexagonal brucite to magnesia with a cubic structure centered on the faces. Its thermal behavior is indicated by the MgO-TiO₂ phase diagram.     

TAS1R3 and TAS2R38 Polymorphisms Affect Sweet Taste Perception: An Observational Study on Healthy and Obese Subjects

Background: The inter-individual differences in taste perception find a possible rationale in genetic variations. We verified whether the presence of four different single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding for bitter (TAS2R38; 145G > C; 785T > C) and sweet (TAS1R3; −1572C > T; −1266C > T) taste receptors influenced the recognition of the basic tastes. Furthermore, we tested if the allelic distribution of such SNPs varied according to BMI and whether the associations between SNPs and taste recognition were influenced by the presence of overweight/obesity. Methods: DNA of 85 overweight/obese patients and 57 normal weight volunteers was used to investigate the SNPs. For the taste test, filter paper strips were applied. Each of the basic tastes (sweet, sour, salty, bitter) plus pure rapeseed oil, and water were tested. Results: Individuals carrying the AV/AV diplotype of the TAS2R38 gene (A49P G/G and V262 T/T) were less sensitive to sweet taste recognition. These alterations remained significant after adjustment for gender and BMI. Moreover, a significant decrease in overall taste recognition associated with BMI and age was found. There was no significant difference in allelic distribution for the investigated polymorphisms between normal and overweight/obese patients. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that overall taste recognition depends on age and BMI. In the total population, the inter-individual ability to identify the sweet taste at different concentrations was related to the presence of at least one genetic variant for the bitter receptor gene but not to the BMI.     

Impact of blood source and component manufacturing on neurotrophin content and in vitro cell wound healing

BackgroundWe evaluated neurotrophin (NF) levels and their impact on in vitro cell wound healing in eye drops from differently prepared blood sources (cord blood [CB], and peripheral blood [PB]) in the same donor, to avoid intrasubject biological variability.Materials and methodsTwenty healthy adult donor PB samples, and twenty CB samples acquired at the time of delivery were processed to obtain serum (S), platelet-rich plasma (PRP), platelet-poor plasma (PPP), and S retrieved from PRP after activation with Ca-gluconate (PRP-R). The levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), nerve growth factor (NGF), glial-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF), fibroblast growth factor (FGF), and epidermal growth factor (EGF) were assessed with a Luminex xMAP (Luminex Corporation), and by using multikine kits from R&D system, and were statistically analysed in the eight different preparations. The impact of S, PRP, PPP, PRP-R from both sources on a cell line responding to NF supplementation (MIO-M1, UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, London, UK) was tested with a scratch wound assay, and analysed by IncuCyte S3 equipment.ResultsAll the preparations from CB showed higher NF levels, except for BDNF where no difference was found as compared to PB. PRP showed higher NF levels with respect to S, PPP and PRP-R in this decreasing order. Younger donors in PB contributed with higher NF levels. The scratch assay showed different cell migration results, with a complete wound closure only recorded with the supplementation of CB-S, and a progressive reduction by using PRP, PRP-R, and PPP from both sources.DiscussionProtocols of preparation and choice of blood source determine different NF levels in the final products. The therapeutic use of a natural neurotrophin pool from blood sources might have a clinical impact in several different settings. Efforts are needed to standardise the manufacturing and the product content in order to establish and modulate the posology of the final supplementation.     

New methods in mammary gland development and cancer: proteomics, epigenetics, symmetric division and metastasis

ABSTRACT: The European Network for Breast Development and Cancer (ENBDC) meeting on 'Methods in Mammary Gland Development and Cancer' has become an annual international rendezvous for scientists with interests in the normal and neoplastic breast. The fourth meeting in this series, held in April in Weggis, Switzerland, focused on proteomics, epigenetics, symmetric division, and metastasis.     

Anti-apoptotic gene transcription signature of salivary gland neoplasms

Background  

Development of accurate therapeutic approaches to salivary gland neoplasms depends on better understanding of their molecular pathogenesis. Tumour growth is regulated by the balance between proliferation and apoptosis. Few studies have investigated apoptosis in salivary tumours relying almost exclusively on immunohistochemistry or TUNEL assay. Furthermore, there is no information regarding the mRNA expression profile of apoptotic genes in salivary tumors. Our objective was to investigate the quantitative expression of BCL-2 (anti-apoptotic), BAX and Caspase3 (pro-apoptotic genes) mRNAs in salivary gland neoplasms and examine the association of these data with tumour size, proliferative activity and p53 staining (parameters associated with a poor prognosis of salivary tumours patients).