The prospective pioglitazone clinical trial in macrovascular events (PROactive): can pioglitazone reduce cardiovascular events in diabetes? Study design and baseline characteristics of 5238 patients

OBJECTIVE: The PROspective pioglitAzone Clinical Trial In macroVascular Events (PROactive) assesses the effect of pioglitazone, a peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor agonist, with anti-inflammatory and vascular properties, on the secondary prevention of macrovascular events in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: PROactive is an on-going randomized, double-blind outcome study in patients with type 2 diabetes managed with diet and/or oral blood glucose-lowering drugs (combination of oral agents with insulin is permitted) who have a history of macrovascular disease. Patients are randomized to receive pioglitazone (forced titration from 15 to 30 to 45 mg, depending on tolerability) or placebo in addition to existing therapy. The primary end point is the time from randomization to occurrence of a new macrovascular event or death. Follow-up is estimated to span 4 years. RESULTS: A total of 5238 patients have been randomized from 19 countries. At entry into the study, patients enrolled are a mean age of 61.8 years, with type 2 diabetes for a mean of 9.5 years; 60.9 and 61.5% are taking metformin or a sulfonylurea, respectively; and 33.6% are using insulin in addition to oral glucose-lowering drugs. The majority of patients are men (66.1%). Patients are required to meet one or more of entry criteria, as follows: >6 months' history of myocardial infarction (46.7%); coronary artery revascularization (30.8%), stroke (18.8%), or acute coronary syndrome for >3 months (13.7%); other evidence of coronary artery disease (48.1%); or peripheral arterial occlusive disease (19.9%). One-half (48.5%) of the patients have two or more of these risk factors. Three-quarters (75.4%) have hypertension, and 58.8% are current or previous smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The cohort of patients enrolled in PROactive is a typical type 2 diabetic population at high risk of further macrovascular events. The characteristics of this population are ideal for assessing the ability of pioglitazone to reduce the cardiovascular risk of patients with type 2 diabetes.     

Health inequalities. Measure for measure

National guides for assessing inequality at local level are inconsistent. A simple tool, the slope index of inequality, measures inequalities in health across the whole population of a primary care trust. The Index enables PCTs to measure inequality by health outcome and service provision.     

Comprehensive decision analytical modelling in economic evaluation: a Bayesian approach

Decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. The whole decision modelling process can be summarised in four stages: (i) a systematic review of the relevant data (including meta-analyses), (ii) estimation of all inputs into the model (including effectiveness, transition probabilities and costs), (iii) sensitivity analysis for data and model specifications, and (iv) evaluation of the model. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the individual components of decision modelling, outlined above, may be addressed simultaneously in one coherent Bayesian model (sometimes known as a comprehensive decision analytical model) and evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in the specialist software WinBUGS. To illustrate the method described, it is applied to two illustrative examples: (1) The prophylactic use of neurominidase inhibitors for the prevention of influenza. (2) The use of taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer.The advantages of integrating the four stages outlined into one comprehensive decision analytical model, compared to the conventional 'two-stage' approach, are discussed.     

Addition of glucose to an oral fat load reduces postprandial free fatty acids and prevents the postprandial increase in complement component 3

BACKGROUND: Elevated fasting plasma concentrations of complement component 3 (C3) are associated with elevated fasting and postprandial triacylglycerol concentrations, insulin resistance, obesity, and coronary artery disease. C3 is the central component of the complement system and the precursor of acylation-stimulating protein (ASP). Insulin and ASP are principal determinants of free fatty acid (FFA) trapping by adipose tissue. OBJECTIVE: Because controversy exists concerning postprandial changes in C3 and because meal composition may influence complement activation, we studied postprandial lipemia in relation to changes in plasma C3. DESIGN: After an overnight fast, 6 healthy men ( +/- SD age: 23 +/- 2 y) underwent 4 oral liquid challenges: fat (50 g/m(2) body surface), glucose (37.5 g/m(2)), fat and glucose (mixed test), and water (as a control test) in a random, crossover design. RESULTS: Plasma ASP concentrations did not change postprandially in any test. Changes in C3 concentration were observed only after the fat challenge: elevated concentrations occurred between 1 and 3 h, and a maximum increase of 11% occurred at 2 h (P = 0.05). Postprandial triacylglycerolemia did not differ significantly between the fat and mixed tests. The FFA response after the fat challenge was the highest of all the tests (P < 0.05 for all comparisons) and was accompanied by an increase in ketone bodies (maximum at 6 h); this increase did not occur after the mixed test, which suggests less hepatic FFA delivery. CONCLUSIONS: When glucose is added to an oral fat load, the postprandial FFA response is reduced, and the fat-specific increase in C3 is prevented. After ingestion of fat without glucose, the lack of insulin response may lead to C3-mediated peripheral FFA trapping, which probably serves as a backup system in case of insufficient or inefficient insulin-dependent FFA trapping.     

Effects of conjugated equine estrogen in postmenopausal women with hysterectomy: the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

Context  Despite decades of use and considerable research, the role of estrogen alone in preventing chronic diseases in postmenopausal women remains uncertain. Objective  To assess the effects on major disease incidence rates of the most commonly used postmenopausal hormone therapy in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants  A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled disease prevention trial (the estrogen-alone component of the Women's Health Initiative [WHI]) conducted in 40 US clinical centers beginning in 1993. Enrolled were 10 739 postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 years, with prior hysterectomy, including 23% of minority race/ethnicity. Intervention  Women were randomly assigned to receive either 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogen (CEE) or placebo. Main Outcome Measures  The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction or CHD death). Invasive breast cancer incidence was the primary safety outcome. A global index of risks and benefits, including these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and deaths from other causes, was used for summarizing overall effects. Results  In February 2004, after reviewing data through November 30, 2003, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) decided to end the intervention phase of the trial early. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for CEE vs placebo for the major clinical outcomes available through February 29, 2004 (average follow-up 6.8 years), were: CHD, 0.91 (0.75-1.12) with 376 cases; breast cancer, 0.77 (0.59-1.01) with 218 cases; stroke, 1.39 (1.10-1.77) with 276 cases; PE, 1.34 (0.87-2.06) with 85 cases; colorectal cancer, 1.08 (0.75-1.55) with 119 cases; and hip fracture, 0.61 (0.41-0.91) with 102 cases. Corresponding results for composite outcomes were: total cardiovascular disease, 1.12 (1.01-1.24); total cancer, 0.93 (0.81-1.07); total fractures, 0.70 (0.63-0.79); total mortality, 1.04 (0.88-1.22), and the global index, 1.01 (0.91-1.12). For the outcomes significantly affected by CEE, there was an absolute excess risk of 12 additional strokes per 10 000 person-years and an absolute risk reduction of 6 fewer hip fractures per 10 000 person-years. The estimated excess risk for all monitored events in the global index was a nonsignificant 2 events per 10 000 person-years. Conclusions  The use of CEE increases the risk of stroke, decreases the risk of hip fracture, and does not affect CHD incidence in postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy over an average of 6.8 years. A possible reduction in breast cancer risk requires further investigation. The burden of incident disease events was equivalent in the CEE and placebo groups, indicating no overall benefit. Thus, CEE should not be recommended for chronic disease prevention in postmenopausal women.      

Averting a malaria disaster in Africa--where does the buck stop?

The serious threat posed by the spread of drug-resistant malaria in Africa has been widely acknowledged. Chloroquine resistance is now almost universal, and resistance to the successor drug, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), is growing rapidly. Combination therapy has been suggested as being an available and potentially lasting solution to this impending crisis. However, the current cost of combination therapy, and especially that of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT), is potentially a serious drawback, even if a significant part of its cost is passed on to the end-user. If the question of cost is not successfully addressed this could lead to adverse results from the deployment of combination therapy as first-line treatment. These adverse effects range from an increase in potentially fatal delays in infected individuals presenting to medical services, to exclusion of the poorest malaria sufferers from receiving treatment altogether. Urgent steps are needed to reduce the cost of combination therapy to the end-user in a sustainable way if it is to be usable, and some possible approaches are discussed.     

Pitfalls of and controversies in cluster randomization trials

It is now well known that standard statistical procedures become invalidated when applied to cluster randomized trials in which the unit of inference is the individual. A resulting consequence is that researchers conducting such trials are faced with a multitude of design choices, including selection of the primary unit of inference, the degree to which clusters should be matched or stratified by prognostic factors at baseline, and decisions related to cluster subsampling. Moreover, application of ethical principles developed for individually randomized trials may also require modification. We discuss several topics related to these issues, with emphasis on the choices that must be made in the planning stages of a trial and on some potential pitfalls to be avoided.