Exact confidence intervals for the average causal effect on a binary outcome

Based on the physical randomization of completely randomized experiments, in a recent article in Statistics in Medicine, Rigdon and Hudgens propose two approaches to obtaining exact confidence intervals for the average causal effect on a binary outcome. They construct the first confidence interval by combining, with the Bonferroni adjustment, the prediction sets for treatment effects among treatment and control groups, and the second one by inverting a series of randomization tests. With sample size n, their second approach requires performing O(n⁴)randomization tests. We demonstrate that the physical randomization also justifies other ways to constructing exact confidence intervals that are more computationally efficient. By exploiting recent advances in hypergeometric confidence intervals and the stochastic order information of randomization tests, we propose approaches that either do not need to invoke Monte Carlo or require performing at most O(n²)randomization tests. We provide technical details and R code in the Supporting Information . Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Animal Models of Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma–Past,Present, and Future

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is the fastest rising cancer in the United States. It develops from long‐standing gastroesophageal reflux disease which affects >20% of the general population. It carries a very poor prognosis with 5‐year survival <20%. The disease is known to sequentially progress from reflux esophagitis to a metaplastic precursor, Barrett''s esophagus and then onto dysplasia and esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, only few patients with reflux develop Barrett''s esophagus and only a minority of these turn malignant. The reason for this heterogeneity in clinical progression is unknown. To improve patient management, molecular changes which facilitate disease progression must be identified. Animal models can provide a comprehensive functional and anatomic platform for such a study. Rats and mice have been the most widely studied but disease homology with humans has been questioned. No animal model naturally simulates the inflammation to adenocarcinoma progression as in humans, with all models requiring surgical bypass or destruction of existing antireflux mechanisms. Valuable properties of individual models could be utilized to holistically evaluate disease progression. In this review paper, we critically examined the current animal models of Barrett''s esophagus, their differences and homologies with human disease and how they have shaped our current understanding of Barrett''s carcinogenesis.     

Checkpoint-blocker-induced autoimmunity is associated with favourable outcome in metastatic melanoma and distinct T-cell expression profiles

Background Immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs) activate CD8⁺ T cells, eliciting both anti-cancer activity and immune-related adverse events (irAEs). The relationship of irAEs with baseline parameters and clinical outcome is unclear.Methods Retrospective evaluation of irAEs on survival was performed across primary (N = 144) and secondary (N = 211) independent cohorts of patients with metastatic melanoma receiving single agent (pembrolizumab/nivolumab—sICB) or combination (nivolumab and ipilimumab—cICB) checkpoint blockade. RNA from pre-treatment and post-treatment CD8⁺ T cells was sequenced and differential gene expression according to irAE development assessed.Results 58.3% of patients developed early irAEs and this was associated with longer progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) across both cohorts (log-rank test, OS: P < 0.0001). Median survival for patients without irAEs was 16.6 months (95% CI: 10.9–33.4) versus not-reached (P = 2.8 × 10⁻⁶). Pre-treatment monocyte and neutrophil counts, but not BMI, were additional predictors of clinical outcome. Differential expression of numerous gene pathway members was observed in CD8⁺ T cells according to irAE development, and patients not developing irAEs demonstrating upregulated CXCR1 pre- and post-treatment.Conclusions Early irAE development post-ICB is associated with favourable survival in MM. Development of irAEs is coupled to expression of numerous gene pathways, suggesting irAE development in-part reflects baseline immune activation.Subject terms: Immunotherapy, Melanoma