Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France,January to March 2020

IntroductionSARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread rapidly worldwide. In January 2020, a surveillance system was implemented in France for early detection of cases and their contacts to help limit secondary transmissions.AimTo use contact-tracing data collected during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to better characterise SARS-CoV-2 transmission.MethodsWe analysed data collected during contact tracing and retrospective epidemiological investigations in France from 24 January to 30 March 2020. We assessed the secondary clinical attack rate and characterised the risk of a contact becoming a case. We described chains of transmission and estimated key parameters of spread.ResultsDuring the study period, 6,082 contacts of 735 confirmed cases were traced. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6–4.6), increasing with age of index case and contact. Compared with co-workers/friends, family contacts were at higher risk of becoming cases (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4–3.0) and nosocomial contacts were at lower risk (AOR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1–0.7). Of 328 infector/infectee pairs, 49% were family members. The distribution of secondary cases was highly over-dispersed: 80% of secondary cases were caused by 10% of cases. The mean serial interval was 5.1 days (interquartile range (IQR): 2–8 days) in contact tracing pairs, where late transmission events may be censored, and 6.8 (3–8) days in pairs investigated retrospectively.ConclusionThis study increases knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including the importance of superspreading events during the onset of the pandemic.     

The current status of risk-stratified breast screening

Apart from high-risk scenarios such as the presence of highly penetrant genetic mutations, breast screening typically comprises mammography or tomosynthesis strategies defined by age. However, age-based screening ignores the range of breast cancer risks that individual women may possess and is antithetical to the ambitions of personalised early detection. Whilst screening mammography reduces breast cancer mortality, this is at the risk of potentially significant harms including overdiagnosis with overtreatment, and psychological morbidity associated with false positives. In risk-stratified screening, individualised risk assessment may inform screening intensity/interval, starting age, imaging modality used, or even decisions not to screen. However, clear evidence for its benefits and harms needs to be established. In this scoping review, the authors summarise the established and emerging evidence regarding several critical dependencies for successful risk-stratified breast screening: risk prediction model performance, epidemiological studies, retrospective clinical evaluations, health economic evaluations and qualitative research on feasibility and acceptability. Family history, breast density or reproductive factors are not on their own suitable for precisely estimating risk and risk prediction models increasingly incorporate combinations of demographic, clinical, genetic and imaging-related parameters. Clinical evaluations of risk-stratified screening are currently limited. Epidemiological evidence is sparse, and randomised trials only began in recent years.Subject terms: Breast cancer, Cancer epidemiology     

Does the Porter formula hold its promise? A weight estimation formula for macrosomic fetuses put to the test

Archives of Gynecology and Obstetrics - Estimating fetal weight using ultrasound measurements is an essential task in obstetrics departments. Most of the commonly used weight estimation formulas...     

Quantifying breast milk intake by term and preterm infants for input into paediatric physiologically based pharmacokinetic models

Despite the many benefits of breast milk, mothers taking medication are often uncertain about the risks of drug exposure to their infants and decide not to breastfeed. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models can contribute to drug‐in‐milk safety assessments by predicting the infant exposure and subsequently, risk for toxic effects that would result from continuous breastfeeding. This review aimed to quantify breast milk intake feeding parameters in term and preterm infants using literature data for input into paediatric physiologically based pharmacokinetic models designed for drug‐in‐milk risk assessment. Ovid MEDLINE and Embase were searched up to July 2, 2019. Key study reference lists and grey literature were reviewed. Title, abstract and full text were screened in nonduplicate. Daily weight‐normalized human milk intake (WHMI) and feeding frequency by age were extracted. The review process retrieved 52 studies. A nonlinear regression equation was constructed to describe the WHMI of exclusively breastfed term infants from birth to 1 year of age. In all cases, preterm infants fed with similar feeding parameters to term infants on a weight‐normalized basis. Maximum WHMI was 152.6 ml/kg/day at 19.7 days, and weighted mean feeding frequency was 7.7 feeds/day. Existing methods for approximating breast milk intake were refined by using a comprehensive set of literature data to describe WHMI and feeding frequency. Milk feeding parameters were quantified for preterm infants, a vulnerable population at risk for high drug exposure and toxic effects. A high‐risk period of exposure at 2–4 weeks of age was identified and can inform future drug‐in‐milk risk assessments.