Are generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape an improvement on existing models for estimating skewed and heteroskedastic cost data?

Generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) are a class of semi-parametric models with potential applicability to health care cost data. We compared the bias, accuracy, and coverage of GAMLSS estimators with two distributions [gamma and generalized inverse gaussian (GIG)] using a log link to the generalized linear model (GLM) with log link and gamma family and the log-transformed OLS. The evaluation using simulated gamma data showed that the GAMLSS and GLM gamma model had similar bias, accuracy, and coverage and outperformed the GAMLSS GIG. When applied to simulated GIG data, the GLM gamma was similar or improved in bias, accuracy, and coverage compared to the GAMLSS GIG and gamma; furthermore, the GAMLSS estimators produced wildly inaccurate or overly-precise results in certain circumstances. Applying all models to empirical data on health care costs after a fall-related injury, all estimators produced similar coefficient estimates, but GAMLSS estimators produced spuriously smaller standard errors. Although no single alternative was best for all simulations, the GLM gamma was the most consistent, so we recommend against using GAMLSS estimators using GIG or gamma to test for differences in mean health care costs. Since GAMLSS offers many other flexible distributions, future work should evaluate whether GAMLSS is useful when predicting health care costs.     

Procoagulant activity of reversibly acylated human factor Xa

The plasma clotting factors used to treat hemophiliacs who have developed inhibitory antibodies have a shared history of limited clinical safety and utility. To improve on existing bypass factors, we have developed a reversibly acylated form of human plasma factor Xa capable of providing a time-dependent release of procoagulant activity. Factor Xa was treated with p-amidinophenyl p'-anisate to generate anisoyl Xa. The chemical modification of the protein involves acylation of the active site serine residue of factor Xa. Anisoyl Xa deacylated in a time, pH, and temperature-dependent manner. Active factor Xa generated on deacylation of anisoyl Xa exhibited amidolytic and prothrombinase complex activities in in vitro assays, the level being comparable to those of untreated factor Xa. When Anisoyl Xa was infused into rabbits, active factor Xa was generated on deacylation of the acylated enzyme, which shortened the activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) in a dose-dependent manner. The duration of effect on rabbit APTT could be directly correlated to the level of human plasma factor Xa. Because anisoyl Xa bypasses the "tenase" complex that is compromised in hemophilia A and B and is unaffected by inhibitory antibodies, it has the potential to be used as an effective bypass therapy.     

The diagnostic value of the fibrinogen/fibrin fragment E antigen assay in clinically suspected deep vein thrombosis

We have evaluated the fibrinogen/fibrin fragment E antigen assay as a diagnostic test in patients with clinically suspected venous thrombosis by comparing the results of this assay with venography in 272 patients. The result of the fragment E antigen assay was elevated in 79 of 80 patients with positive venograms for recent venous thrombosis (sensitivity 99%) and within the normal range in 161 of 192 patients with normal venograms (specificity 84%). The fragment E assay was also evaluated in 130 medical and surgical controls without evidence of venous thrombosis by leg scanning and the test was found to be relatively nonspecific. However, in the patient group under study, a correct clinical diagnosis of no thrombosis, based on a normal fragment E result, was made in 161 of 162 cases (negative predictive value of 99%). Therefore, a normal test result effectively excludes a diagnosis of venous thrombosis in clinically symptomatic patients. The assay, as currently performed, is technically demanding and takes 24 hr to complete. Therefore, it will have to be simplified before it can be applied to clinical practice.     

Preclinical to Clinical Translation of CNS Transporter Occupancy of TD-9855, a Novel Norepinephrine and Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor

Background:

Monoamine reuptake inhibitors exhibit unique clinical profiles that reflect distinct engagement of the central nervous system (CNS) transporters.

Methods:

We used a translational strategy, including rodent pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in humans, to establish the transporter profile of TD-9855, a novel norepinephrine and serotonin reuptake inhibitor.

Results:

TD-9855 was a potent inhibitor of norepinephrine (NE) and serotonin 5-HT uptake in vitro with an inhibitory selectivity of 4- to 10-fold for NE at human and rat transporters. TD-9855 engaged norepinephrine transporters (NET) and serotonin transporters (SERT) in rat spinal cord, with a plasma EC₅₀ of 11.7ng/mL and 50.8ng/mL, respectively, consistent with modest selectivity for NET in vivo.Accounting for species differences in protein binding, the projected human NET and SERT plasma EC₅₀ values were 5.5ng/mL and 23.9ng/mL, respectively. A single-dose, open-label PET study (4–20mg TD-9855, oral) was conducted in eight healthy males using the radiotracers [¹¹C]-3-amino-4- [2-[(di(methyl)amino)methyl]phenyl]sulfanylbenzonitrile for SERT and [¹¹C]-(S,S)-methylreboxetine for NET. The long pharmacokinetic half-life (30–40h) of TD-9855 allowed for sequential assessment of SERT and NET occupancy in the same subject. The plasma EC₅₀ for NET was estimated to be 1.21ng/mL, and at doses of greater than 4mg the projected steady-state NET occupancy is high (>75%). After a single oral dose of 20mg, SERT occupancy was 25 (±8)% at a plasma level of 6.35ng/mL.

Conclusions:

These data establish the CNS penetration and transporter profile of TD-9855 and inform the selection of potential doses for future clinical evaluation.     

Acute appendicitis in the developing world is a morbid disease

IntroductionAcute appendicitis in the developing world has a markedly different disease profile to that in the developed world.MethodsA retrospective study was undertaken over a four-year period at a university hospital in South Africa to review the disease spectrum and the clinical outcome of acute appendicitis.ResultsA total of 1,004 patients (54% male, median age: 18 years) with intraoperatively confirmed appendicitis were reviewed. Over half (56%) were from the urban district within the city of Pietermaritzburg and the remaining 44% were from the rural health district. The median duration of illness from onset to definitive care was 4 days. Sixty per cent of appendices were perforated and associated with intra-abdominal contamination. Forty per cent of patients required reoperation to control intra-abdominal sepsis. Ten per cent required admission to the intensive care unit. The median overall length of hospital stay was 5 days. The mortality rate was 1%.Rural patients had a longer median duration of illness (3 vs 5 days, p<0.001) as well as a more advanced disease profile associated with perforation and severe intra-abdominal sepsis (19% vs 71%, p<0.001). Female patients had a longer median duration of illness (3 vs 4 days, p<0.001), were more likely to present with severe intra-abdominal sepsis (31% vs 54%, p<0.001) and were more likely to require a laparotomy (50% vs 73%, p<0.001). The total cost of managing the entire cohort of 1,004 patients over the 4-year period was £2,060,972.ConclusionsAcute appendicitis in South Africa is a serious disease associated with significant morbidity. Late presentation is common. Female and rural patients have the worst clinical outcomes, with significant cost to the health system.