Establishing the Cost-Effectiveness of New Pharmaceuticals under Conditions of Uncertainty—When Is There Sufficient Evidence?

Decisions about which health-care interventions represent adequate value to collectively funded health-care systems are as widespread as they are unavoidable. In the case of new pharmaceuticals, many countries now require formal cost-effectiveness analysis to inform this decision-making process. This requires evidence on parameters associated with health-related utilities, treatment effects, resource use, and costs, for which data from available regulatory trials are invariably absent or highly uncertain. This uncertainty results from a number of factors including the predominance of intermediate end points in the clinical evidence-base and the limited period of follow-up of patients in clinical studies. Despite these imperfections in the evidence base, decisions about whether new pharmaceuticals are sufficiently cost-effective for reimbursement cannot be side-stepped. Data limitations do, however, require the use of rigorous analytical methods to support decision making. Probabilistic decision models and value of information analysis offer a means of structuring decision problems, synthesizing all available data, characterizing the uncertainty in the decision, quantifying the cost of uncertainty, and establishing the expected value of perfect information. This analytical framework is important because it addresses two fundamental questions about new pharmaceuticals. First, is the product expected to be cost-effective on the basis of existing evidence? Second, is additional research concerning the product itself cost-effective? In addressing these questions, the analytical framework can establish when sufficient evidence exists to sustain a claim for a new pharmaceutical to be cost-effective.     

Distance-adjusted motor threshold for transcranial magnetic stimulation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between coil-cortex distance and effective cortical stimulation using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in the left and right motor cortex. We also compare the effect of coil-cortex distance using 50 and 70 mm figure-eight stimulating coils. METHODS: Coil-cortex distance was manipulated within each participant using 5 and 10 mm acrylic separators placed between the coil and scalp surface. The effect of cortical stimulation was indexed by resting motor threshold (MT). RESULTS: Increasing distance between the coil and underlying cortex was associated with a steep linear increase in MT. For each additional millimetre separating the stimulating coil from the scalp surface, an additional approximately 2.8% of absolute stimulator output (approximately 0.062 T) was required to reach MT. The gradient of the observed distance effect did not differ between hemispheres, and no differences were observed between the 50 and 70 mm TMS coils. CONCLUSIONS: Coil-cortex distance directly influences the magnitude of cortical stimulation in TMS. The relationship between TMS efficacy and coil-cortex distance is well characterised by a linear function, providing a simple and effective method for scaling stimulator output to a distance adjusted MT. SIGNIFICANCE: MT measured at the scalp-surface is dependent on the underlying scalp-cortex distance, and therefore does not provide an accurate index of cortical excitability. Distance-adjusted MT provides a more accurate index of cortical excitability, and improves the safety and efficacy of MT-calibrated TMS.     

Effectiveness of early orthodontic treatment with the Twin-block appliance: a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial. Part 1: Dental and skeletal effects.

This study evaluated the effectiveness of early orthodontic treatment with the Twin-block appliance for the developing Class II Division 1 malocclusion. This multicenter trial was carried out in the United Kingdom. A total of 174 children, aged 8 to 10 years old, with Class II Division 1 malocclusion were randomly allocated to receive treatment with a Twin-block appliance or to an untreated, control group. Data were collected at the start of the study and 15 months later. Results showed that early treatment with Twin-block appliances resulted in reduction of overjet, correction of molar relationships, and reduction in severity of malocclusion. Most of this correction was due to dentoalveolar change, but some was due to favorable skeletal change. Early treatment with the Twin-block appliance is effective in reducing overjet and severity of malocclusion. The small change in the skeletal relationship might not be considered clinically significant.     

奥利司他对肥胖青少年体重和机体组分的影响——随机对照试验

背景：儿童和青少年超重和肥胖正迅速增加。在该人群，单纯行为疗法减肥及维持体重下降的效果有限，但是对药物治疗尚未进行广泛的研究。 目的：确定奥利州他（Orlistat）在青少年体重治疗方面的效果及其安个性。 设计、地点和病例：于美国和加拿大32个中心、539例肥胖青少年（12—16岁；体重指数[body mass index，BMI]在第95百分化之上≥2单位）进行的多ln0、54剧（2000年8月至2002年10月）随机双盲研究。 干预：给予奥利司他（n=357）或安慰剂（n=182）120mg，每口3次，持续1年；加适度低热卡饮食（脂肪占30％）、运动和行为治疗。 主要观察指标：BMI变化；二级指标包括腰围和髋用、体重下降、脂质测量以及机体对口服葡萄糖的血糖和胰岛素反心。 结果：至12周时，两组BMI均有下降；此后，奥利司他组体重维持稳定而安慰剂组则超过基线。研究结束时，奥利司他组BMI下降0．55。而安慰剂组则增加0．31（P=0．001）。与安慰剂组的15．7％相比，奥利司他组26．5％的病例BMI下降≥5％（P=0．005）；BMI下降≥10％者分别为4．5％和13．3％（P=0．002）。在研究结束时，奥利司他组体重增加0．53kg，安慰剂组增加3．14kg（P〈0．001）。双能X线吸收测量娃示，这种差异可用脂肪体再的变化解释。奥利司他组腰围下降，安慰剂组腰围上升（-1．33cm比＋0．12cm；P〈0．05）。奥利司他组发生轻至中度胃肠道不良事件者为9％-50％，安慰剂组为1％～13％。 结论：与安慰剂比较，奥利司他与饮食、运动和行为改善联合可显著改善肥胖青少年体重的治疗。在这个青少年人群，连续使用奥利司他1年并无重要安全问题，尽管奥利司他组胃肠道不良事件较为常见。     

Structural white matter abnormalities in patients with idiopathic dystonia

We investigated whether structural white matter abnormalities, in the form of disruption of axonal coherence and integrity as measured with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), constitute an underlying pathological mechanism of idiopathic dystonia (ID), independent of genotype status. We studied seven subjects with ID: all had cervical dystonia as their main symptom (one patient also had spasmodic dysphonia and two patients had concurrent generalized dystonia, both DYT1‐negative). We compared DTI MR images of patients with 10 controls, evaluating differences in mean diffusivity (MD) and fractional anisotropy (FA). ID was associated with increased FA values in the thalamus and adjacent white matter, and in the white matter underlying the middle frontal gyrus. ID was also associated with increase in MD in adjacent white matter to the pallidum and putamen bilaterally, left caudate, and in subcortical hemispheric regions, including the postcentral gyrus. Abnormal FA and MD in patients with ID indicate that abnormal axonal coherence and integrity contribute to the pathophysiology of dystonia. These findings suggest that ID is not only a functional disorder, but also associated with structural brain changes. Impaired connectivity and disrupted flow of information may contribute to the impairment of motor planning and regulation in dystonia. © 2006 Movement Disorder Society     

Genotype prevalence and risk factors for severe clinical adenovirus infection, United States 2004-2006.

BACKGROUND: Recently, epidemiological and clinical data have revealed important changes with regard to clinical adenovirus infection, including alterations in antigenic presentation, geographical distribution, and virulence of the virus. METHODS: In an effort to better understand the epidemiology of clinical adenovirus infection in the United States, we adopted a new molecular adenovirus typing technique to study clinical adenovirus isolates collected from 22 medical facilities over a 25-month period during 2004-2006. A hexon gene sequence typing method was used to characterize 2237 clinical adenovirus-positive specimens, comparing their sequences with those of the 51 currently recognized prototype human adenovirus strains. In a blinded comparison, this method performed well and was much faster than the classic serologic typing method. RESULTS: Among civilians, the most prevalent adenovirus types were types 3 (prevalence, 34.6%), 2 (24.3%), 1 (17.7%), and 5 (5.3%). Among military trainees, the most prevalent types were types 4 (prevalence, 92.8%), 3 (2.6%), and 21 (2.4%). CONCLUSIONS: For both populations, we observed a statistically significant increasing trend of adenovirus type 21 detection over time. Among adenovirus isolates recovered from specimens from civilians, 50% were associated with hospitalization, 19.6% with a chronic disease condition, 11% with a bone marrow or solid organ transplantation, 7.4% with intensive care unit stay, and 4.2% with a cancer diagnosis. Multivariable risk factor modeling for adenovirus disease severity found that age <7 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-7.4), chronic disease (OR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.6-5.1), recent transplantation (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3-5.2), and adenovirus type 5 (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.5-4.7) or type 21 infection (OR, 7.6; 95% CI, 2.6-22.3) increased the risk of severe disease.     

Human C-reactive protein increases cerebral infarct size after middle cerebral artery occlusion in adult rats.

Human C-reactive protein (CRP), the classic acute phase plasma protein, increases in concentration after myocardial infarction and stroke. Human CRP binds to ligands exposed in damaged tissue and can then activate complement and its proinflammatory functions. In contrast, rat CRP, which binds to similar ligands, does not activate complement. In the present study, systemic complement depletion with cobra venom factor in adult rats subjected to middle cerebral artery occlusion did not affect cerebral infarct size, indicating that circulating complement does not contribute to injury in this model. However, we have previously reported that administration of human CRP to rats undergoing coronary artery ligation caused a marked increase in size of the resulting myocardial infarction, associated with codeposition of human CRP and rat complement in the infarcts. In the present study, we show that adult rats subjected to middle cerebral artery occlusion and then treated with human CRP similarly developed significantly larger cerebral infarcts compared with control subjects receiving human serum albumin. Human CRP can thus contribute to ischemic tissue damage in the brain as well as in the heart, and inhibition of CRP binding may therefore be a promising target for tissue protective acute therapeutic intervention in stroke as well as in myocardial infarction.