Bayesian estimation of a random effects heteroscedastic probit model

Summary Bayesian analysis is given of a random effects binary probit model that allows for heteroscedasticity. Real and simulated examples illustrate the approach and show that ignoring heteroscedasticity when it exists may lead to biased estimates and poor prediction. The computation is carried out by an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates the parameters in blocks. We use the Bayes factor, cross‐validation of the predictive density, the deviance information criterion and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for model comparison.     

Development of bariatric surgery-specific risk assessment tool.

BACKGROUND: Administrative databases have increasingly been used to assess bariatric surgery outcomes, resulting in policy recommendations about bariatric practice. However, surgical outcomes must be risk adjusted to compare patients of varying potential risk fairly with those to whom the policies will apply. To date, the risk adjustment tools used for database analysis of bariatric surgical outcomes have been those designed for other purposes, and their sensitivity for bariatric outcomes has not been established. METHODS: Bariatric surgical procedures contained in the National Hospital Discharge Summary for 1993-2003 were assembled into a database. The standard set of Elixhauser co-morbidity variables used by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality were entered into the database. Those variables that were significantly associated with adverse outcomes were entered into a stepwise-elimination logistic regression equation, yielding a set of variables related to adverse outcomes from bariatric surgery. These were then prospectively applied to another database (the National Inpatient Survey) to determine their sensitivity for predicting outcomes and were compared with the commonly used Charlson score. RESULTS: The variables significantly correlating with bariatric adverse events included chronic pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes with chronic complications, fluid and electrolyte disorders, deficiency anemias, and depression. Age and male gender were also signficantly related to adverse events. The c-index (a correlative index, with .5 showing no, and 1, a perfect, relationship) for bariatric surgery mortality with the Charlson index is .52. For the Elixhauser-based system we developed, it is .72. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a new risk-adjustment tool for bariatric surgery outcomes studies that use administrative databases. Its performance was clearly better than that of the commonly used Charlson co-morbidity score. Bariatric studies that have used the Charlson index should not be considered adequately risk adjusted.     

Effect of Ginkgo biloba (EGb 761) and aspirin on platelet aggregation and platelet function analysis among older adults at risk of cardiovascular disease: a randomized clinical trial.

Several case reports have implicated Ginkgo biloba in clinically adverse bleeding disorders. Ginkgo biloba has been reported to increase pain-free walking distance among patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). Standard PAD therapy includes 325 mg/day aspirin. The objective of this study was to examine potential adverse effects of concomitant aspirin and Ginkgo biloba on platelet function. Ginkgo biloba (EGb 761, 300 mg/day) was compared with placebo for effects on measures of platelet aggregation among adults consuming 325 mg/day aspirin in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel design trial of 4-week duration. Participants were adults, age 69 +/- 10 years, with PAD or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Outcome measures included platelet function analysis (PFA-100 analyzer) using ADP as an agonist (n = 26 placebo; n = 29 ginkgo), and platelet aggregation using ADP, epinephrine, collagen and ristocetin as agonists (n = 21 placebo; n = 23 ginkgo). Participants kept daily logs of bleeding or bruising episodes. There were no clinically or statistically significant differences between treatment groups for any agonists, for either PFA-100 analysis or platelet aggregation. Reports of bleeding or bruising were infrequent and similar for both study groups. In conclusion, in older adults with PAD or cardiovascular disease risk, a relatively high dose of Ginkgo biloba combined with 325 mg/day daily aspirin did not have a clinically or statistically detectable impact on indices of coagulation examined over 4 weeks, compared with the effect of aspirin alone. No adverse bleeding events were observed, although the trial was limited to a small sample size.     

Age-dependent Responses to Thermal Hyperalgesia and Mechanical Allodynia in a Rat Model of Acute Postoperative Pain

Background: Developmental differences in short- and long-term responses to pain, especially surgical pain, have received minimal attention. The purpose of the present study was to examine postoperative responses in rats of developmental ages paralleling the infant to young adult human.

Methods: The withdrawal threshold to von Frey filament testing and withdrawal latency to hind-paw radiant heating were determined before and for various times after hind-paw incision in rats 2, 4, and 16 weeks of age. Control rats of these ages were observed serially without surgery.

Results: In control animals, younger rats were more sensitive to mechanical stimulation and less sensitive to thermal stimulation. Paw incision resulted in similar changes to both types of stimulation in all age groups, peaking 4 h after surgery. However, the return to normal sensitivity to mechanical stimulation, as measured by return of threshold to 80% of normal, occurred more quickly in 2-week-old than in 4- and 16-week-old animals. In contrast, there was no age difference for time to return to normal sensitivity to thermal stimulation after surgery.