Analytical and simulation methods for estimating the potential predictive ability of genetic profiling: a comparison of methods and results

Various modeling methods have been proposed to estimate the potential predictive ability of polygenic risk variants that predispose to various common diseases. However, it is unknown whether differences between them affect their conclusions on predictive ability. We reviewed input parameters, assumptions and output of the five most common methods and compared their estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) using hypothetical data representing effect sizes and frequencies of genetic variants, population disease risk and number of variants. To assess the accuracy of the estimated AUCs, we aimed to reproduce the AUCs of published empirical studies. All methods assumed that the combined effect of genetic variants on disease risk followed a multiplicative risk model of independent genetic effects, but they either assumed per allele, per genotype or dominant/recessive effects for the genetic variants. Modeling strategy and input parameters differed. Methods used simulation analysis or analytical formulas with effect sizes quantified by odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks. Estimated AUC values were similar for lower ORs (<1.2). When AUCs were larger (>0.7) due to variants with strong effects, differences in estimated AUCs between methods increased. The simulation methods accurately reproduced the AUC values of empirical studies, but the analytical methods did not. We conclude that despite differences in input parameters, the modeling methods estimate similar AUC for realistic values of the ORs. When one or more variants have stronger effects and AUC values are higher, the simulation methods tend to be more accurate.     

Limited concordance between teachers,parents and healthcare professionals on the presence of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents

Evidence on teachers’ knowledge about somatic and mental chronic diseases among ID-adolescent compared to the knowledge parents and healthcare professionals have, is limited. The aim of this study is: (1) to assess the knowledge of teachers on the presence of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents; (2) to compare teachers with parents and healthcare professionals and parents with healthcare professionals regarding the knowledge on the presence of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents. We obtained data on 1044 ID-adolescents attending secondary schools, fully covering one region of the Netherlands. Teachers, parents and general practitioners (GPs) of the adolescents completed a questionnaire about the occurrence of chronic diseases in their child during the previous 12 months. The questionnaire was derived from the Dutch National Permanent Survey on Living Conditions questionnaire periodically administered in a representative population sample (n ≈ 10,000). Concordance between teachers, parents and healthcare professionals on the presence of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents was relatively low. In about half of all 66 dyads the concordance was for the most part fair and just in 10 dyads good to very good; nine of these latter cases concerned somatic chronic diseases. In addition, teachers reported mostly lower prevalence rates of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents compared to the parents, in particular on mental chronic diseases. Although prevalence rates of chronic diseases among ID-adolescents are very high, knowledge on this among teachers is limited. While information on chronic diseases in ID-adolescents is available among different informants, the disagreement between them reflects different points of view between the informants and probably indicates a lack of communication. The communication among teachers, parents and GPs should be improved to combine the knowledge and information on the presence of chronic diseases in ID-adolescents. This may provide opportunities to improve the support of these adolescents in their school career and in their transition from school to work.     

Pervasive developmental disorder behavior in adolescents with intellectual disability and co-occurring somatic chronic diseases

Evidence on the association between somatic chronic diseases in ID-adolescents and the full range of pervasive developmental disorder behavior (PDD behavior) is scarce. The aim of the present study is to assess the association between somatic chronic diseases in ID-adolescents and mild PDD behavior. We obtained data on 1044 ID-adolescents, aged 12–18, attending secondary schools in the Netherlands. Parents of the adolescents completed the Dutch version of the Children's Social Behavior Questionnaire (CSBQ) parent version, covering a wide range of PDD behavior, and questions about chronic diseases and background characteristics of their child. ID-adolescents with somatic chronic diseases showed more PDD behavior, in particular milder forms, than their peers without chronic diseases. In addition, ID-adolescents with somatic chronic diseases in combination with pervasive development disorders (PDD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) also showed more PDD behavior than their peers with only PDD/ADHD. Clinicians should be extra alert on PDD behavior, in particular the milder forms, in ID-adolescents when somatic chronic diseases are present. However, to strengthen our results about the relationship between somatic chronic diseases in ID-adolescents and PDD behavior studies are needed using both the CSBQ and standardized diagnostic instruments.     

Binding of heme by glutathione S-transferase: a possible role of the erythrocyte enzyme

Human erythrocyte glutathione S-transferase activity is inhibited, probably competitively, by hemin with a Ki of 10(-7) M. It is postulated that glutathione S-transferase functions physiologically as a hemin-binding and/or transport protein in developing erythroid cells.     

The surgical hypertensive patient

We reviewed the pathophysiology and treatment of hypertensionin a recent edition of this journal (see key references). Inthis article, we discuss the management of the hypertensivepatient presenting for surgery and anaesthesia.     

Epidemiologic background and long-term course of disease in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected blood donors identified before routine laboratory screening. Transfusion Safety Study Group

BACKGROUND: The long-term course of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-related disease among seropositive blood donors has not been described. The enrollment and epidemiologic background of HIV-1- infected donors in the Transfusion Safety Study and their immunologic and clinical progression are described. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Through the testing of approximately 200,000 sera from donations made in late 1984 and early 1985, 146 anti-HIV-1-positive donors and 151 uninfected matched donors were enrolled. These two cohorts were followed with 6-month interval histories and laboratory testing. RESULTS: Seropositive donors detected before the institution of routine anti-HIV-1 screening disproportionately were first-time donors and men with exclusively male sexual contacts. The actuarial probability of a person's developing AIDS within 7 years after donation was 40 percent; the probability of a person's dying of AIDS was 28 percent. AIDS developed more often when the donor was p24 antigen-positive at donation. Over a 3-year period, significant decreases occurred in CD4+, CD2+CD26+, CD4+CD29+, and CD20+CD21+ counts, but not in CD8+ subsets, CD20+, or CD14+. CONCLUSION: The high proportions of first-time donations and exclusively homosexual men among seropositive donors suggest that test-seeking may have contributed to the high HIV-1 prevalence in the repository. Implementation of alternative test sites when routine donor screening began in 1985 may have averted many high- risk donations. The disease course in HIV-1-infected donors had the same wide spectrum of immunologic and clinical manifestations as were reported for other cohorts.     

Cerebral Tuberculoma

SUMMARY Intracranial tuberculoma has become a rarity. It remains a curable lesion that responds well to medical therapy. Although diagnosis in developed countries is often made only postoperatively, early and effective treatment can be instituted if a high index of suspicion is maintained and diagnostic criteria are looked for. A case is presented which illustrates the difficulties in reaching a diagnosis, and a review of the literature is given.     

清开灵与利巴韦林治疗小儿呼吸道合胞病毒肺炎的比较：单盲、随机、平行对照试验

目的:比较清开灵与利巴韦林对呼吸道合胞病毒肺炎患儿治疗效果的差异。方法:选择2005-02/2006-04在北京儿童医院分中心治疗的小儿呼吸道合胞病毒肺炎97例,患儿法定监护人知情同意。采用单盲、随机、平行对照试验的原则,按区组随机化方法分为2组,清开灵注射液组49例,利巴韦林组48例。①清开灵注射液组:清开灵注射液静脉滴注加口服中成药。②利巴韦林组:利巴韦林注射液静脉滴注加口服复方愈创木酚磺酸钾口服液。两组疗程均为10d,比较两组患儿的疗效。结果:清开灵注射液组脱落3例,利巴韦林组脱落1例,进入结果分析清开灵注射液组46例,利巴韦林组47例。①清开灵注射液组发热患儿体温恢复正常时间比利巴韦林组短[(2.72±1.86)d,(6.29±2.41)d(P<0.01)]。②清开灵注射液组患儿咳嗽、痰壅、气促症状积分改善方面优于利巴韦林组(P<0.05～0.01)。③清开灵注射液组的呼吸道合胞病毒转阴时间明显优于利巴韦林组。④咳嗽、痰壅、病毒转阴时间、气促均进入Logistic模型,其中前两个症状的回归系数绝对值较大。结论:清开灵注射液治疗小儿呼吸道合胞病毒肺炎在退热、止咳平喘、呼吸道合胞病毒转阴时间等方面均具有明显优势,咳嗽、痰壅这两个症状更能反映清开灵注射液的疗效优于利巴韦林。     

壳聚糖载体介导关节内基因转移：转染效率与基因产品的关系

目的:分析壳聚糖-DNA超微颗粒在关节内的转基因效应。方法:实验于2005-09/2006-06在上海交通大学医学院健康科学研究所骨科细胞与分子生物学实验室完成。实验材料:①模型制备:采用切断内侧副韧带,切除内侧半月板的方法制备骨关节炎兔模型。②基因产品:白细胞介素(interleukin,IL)1Ra基因、IL-10基因。实验分组:15只新西兰兔按随机数字表法分为3组:①空载体对照组(n=3),造模后5d两侧膝关节关节腔注射400μL壳聚糖-PcDNA3.1溶液,共3次,每48h1次。②IL-1Ra基因治疗组和IL-10基因治疗组,每组6只,造模后5d对照侧膝关节关节腔分别注射20μg裸DNA(PcDNA3.1-IL-1Ra或PcDNA3.1-IL-10),实验侧膝关节关节腔注射400μL壳聚糖-DNA超微颗粒(含20μgIL-1Ra或IL-10),注射次数及间隔时间同空载体对照组。实验评估:①采用酶联免疫吸附分析及免疫组织化学检测IL-1Ra和IL-10基因的表达和分布。②苏木精-伊红染色和甲苯胺蓝染色观察骨关节炎软骨组织学变化。结果:纳入新西兰兔15只,均进入结果分析。①IL-1Ra和IL-10基因在关节滑液中的表达:空载体对照组及IL-1Ra基因治疗组对照侧膝关节滑液中未检测到IL-1Ra表达,实验侧于第1次基因注射后7,14d检测到IL-1Ra表达。IL-10基因治疗组对照侧和实验侧均未检测到IL-10表达。②IL-1Ra基因在兔膝关节的分布:IL-1Ra基因治疗组兔软骨表层和中间层部分细胞内表达IL-1Ra,至少持续到第1次基因注射后14d。在滑膜组织中未观察到明显的IL-1Ra表达。③兔骨关节炎软骨组织学变化:空载体对照组呈早期骨性关节炎的典型性改变。苏木精-伊红染色显示软骨细胞坏死,蛋白多糖甲苯胺蓝染色不均一,软骨表层和中间层大部分区域失染,软骨细胞簇聚区域其周围深染。IL-1Ra基因治疗组在软骨损坏方面明显减轻,甲苯胺蓝部分失染。结论:①壳聚糖-DNA超微颗粒的转染效率与基因产品有关。②将IL-1Ra用关节腔直接注射壳聚糖-DNA超微颗粒的方法直接转移入关节腔能一定程度上减轻骨性关节炎的进程。