Estratificación basal de riesgo en pacientes mayores de 75 años con infarto y shock cardiogénico referidos para angioplastia primaria

Background and objectivesPatients older than 75 years with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty in cardiogenic shock have high mortality. Identification of preprocedural predictors of short- and long-term mortality could be useful to guide decision-making and further interventions.MethodsWe analyzed a nationwide registry of primary angioplasty in the elderly (ESTROFA MI + 75) comprising 3576 patients. The characteristics and outcomes of the subgroup of patients in cardiogenic shock were analyzed to identify associated factors and prognostic predictors in order to derive a baseline risk prediction score for 1-year mortality. The score was validated in an independent cohort.ResultsA total of 332 patients were included. Baseline independent predictors of mortality were anterior myocardial infarction (HR 2.8, 95%CI, 1.4-6.0; P = .005), ejection fraction < 40% (HR 2.3, 95%CI, 1.14-4.50; P = .018), and time from symptom onset to angioplasty > 6 hours (HR 3.2, 95%CI, 1.6-7.5; P = .001). A score was designed that included these predictive factors (score “6-ANT-40”). Survival at 1 year was 54.5% for patients with score 0, 32.3% for score 1, 27.4% for score 2 and 17% for score 3 (P = .004, c-statistic 0.70). The score was validated in an independent cohort of 124 patients, showing 1-year survival rates of 64.5%, 40.0%, 28.9%, and 22.2%, respectively (P = .008, c-statistic 0.68).ConclusionsA preprocedural score based on 3 simple clinical variables (anterior location, ejection fraction < 40%, and delay time > 6 hours) may be used to estimate survival after primary angioplasty in elderly patients with cardiogenic shock and to guide preinterventional decision-making.