A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability.     

Population health metrics: crucial inputs to the development of evidence for health policy

Valid, reliable and comparable measures of the health states of individuals and of the health status of populations are critical components of the evidence base for health policy. We need to develop population health measurement strategies that coherently address the relationships between epidemiological measures (such as risk exposures, incidence, and mortality rates) and multi-domain measures of population health status, while ensuring validity and cross-population comparability.     

Social context and "natural recovery": the role of social capital in the resolution of drug-associated problems.

This paper explores the social context of "natural recovery" from problems associated with the misuse of intoxicants. Using data collected from in-depth interviews with 46 former alcohol- and drug-dependent persons, this paper examines how the social capital that these respondents had accumulated prior to their addiction and maintained during it aided in their recovery without treatment. We specifically explore how the relations within their lives and the actual and virtual resources available to subjects through their social capital aided in our respondents' "natural recovery" from drug-use related problems. We conclude with a discussion of the implications an analysis of social capital has for the treatment of drug-associated problems as well as for drug policy.     

Breast and cervical cancer survival: making sense of ‘league tables’

During 1998, the Department of Health proposed to use survival rates of cervical and breast cancer in the 1989/90 incidence cohort as indicators of care. Valid interpretation was of concern within Trent and the Trent Cancer Registry responded by performing additional analyses. Trent Cancer Registry registrations for 1989/90 were re-analysed and the stability of districts' ranks for that cohort was investigated using random simulation techniques. Stability of ranks across more recent cohorts was investigated and attempts made to use all available information.The Department of Health's analyses were confirmed by our re-analysis of the 1989/90 cohort: Rotherham residents appeared to have the "worst" survival for cervical cancer, and Sheffield residents for breast cancer, although not statistically significantly so. Random simulations indicated that ranks based on a single cohort are not stable: for example Sheffield (ranked tenth for 1-y breast cancer survival) was ranked third or better in 6% of randomisations. Ranks were also unstable across cohorts: for example Rotherham 1-y cervical cancer survival was ranked tenth for 1989/90, fifth for 1991/92 and tenth for 1993/94. Analysis of 3-y running averages provided better information than the league table approach. Most districts improved over time, to different degrees, and similar sized gaps remained between the "best" and the "worst" districts. This analysis illustrates the need to be circumspect when interpreting "league tables" based on a single year or cohort analysis. League tables are based on ranks: clearly a large difference in rank may reflect only trivial (ie medically unimportant) differences in actual outcome. Lack of a statistically significant difference in survival between two districts does not mean their survival is equivalent. Even for a common cancer, like breast cancer, rankings were unstable from cohort to cohort. At the Registry we propose to perform these trend analyses routinely in future, adjusting, when possible, for the effects of deprivation and stage at diagnosis.     

Progressive peripheral agraphia

We describe RW, a patient who presented with writing difficulty that deteriorated over time. While her graphemes were typically legible, her writing was extremely slow, and her letters were written in an inconsistent and heterogeneous manner (e.g. each "a" in the word "banana" was produced in a different way). Her mental imagery of letters was impoverished, and she also produced allographic errors in her writing. She had some spelling errors as well, but many of these were due to omissions, perseverations, and motor operations. A positron emission tomography scan demonstrated superior parietal occipital and superior frontal defects that were more evident on the left than the right. Our observations are consistent with the hypothesis that RW has a deficit retrieving physical letter forms as manifested by her heterogeneous and slow production of letter forms. This disruption of grapheme retrieval is associated with interruption of a superior frontal-parietal system in the left hemisphere.     

Extended Day Treatment: A Comprehensive Model of After School Behavioral Health Services for Youth

Extended day treatment (EDT) is an innovative intermediate-level service for children and adolescents with serious emotional and behavioral disorders delivered during the after school hours. This paper describes the core components of the EDT model of care within the context of statewide systems of care, including its core service components, levels of care, focus on evidence-based practices, workforce composition and staff training, and data collection and reporting mechanisms. Recommendations are provided for statewide implementation, followed by discussion of model development as an approach to systems reform for treating children and youth with emotional and behavioral disorders.