Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modification of Blood Vessel Diameter Following Perivascular Application of Botulinum Toxin-A

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate that perivascularly applied botulinum toxin-A (BTX) increases the diameter of treated blood vessels in a rat femoral vessel exposure model. Six adult Sprague–Dawley rats were used and bilateral femoral artery and vein exposures were performed. Five units of BTX were applied to the experimental side and an equal volume of sterile saline was applied to the control side. Digital images of the vessels were obtained at the following time points: pretreatment, immediately posttreatment, and postoperative days (POD) 1, 14, and 28. Vessel diameters were equivalent at baseline and immediately following application of BTX and saline. The BTX artery was significantly larger than the control artery on POD 1 and 14. The BTX treated artery was significantly larger than all other vessels on POD 14 (p < 0.05) as well as all prior time points (p < 0.01). Direct perivascular application of BTX increases the diameter of rat femoral vessels as early as POD 1. The affect is most robust on POD 14 where the artery was significantly larger than all other vessels at all time points. It is likely that the increased diameter of blood vessels results in an increased blood flow across the area of dilation. Such an increase in flow may serve to improve end-organ perfusion in microvascular procedures.