Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Canadian Consensus Recommendations for the Optimal Use of Enfuvirtide in HIV/AIDS Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: An eight-member group consisting of Canadian infectious disease and immunology specialists and a family physician with significant experience in HIV management was convened to update existing recommendations, specifically intended for use by Canadian HIV-treating physicians, on the appropriate use of enfuvirtide in HIV/AIDS patients with resistance to other antiretroviral drugs. METHODS: Evidence from the literature and expert opinions of the group members formed the basis of the guidelines. Comments on the draft guidelines were obtained from other physicians across Canada with HIV expertise. The final guidelines represent the group's consensus agreement. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The recommendations were developed to guide physicians in optimal practices in patient selection for enfuvirtide treatment and subsequent patient management. The issues considered include positive predictors of response to enfuvirtide, stage of disease, optimization of the background regimen, early indicators of enfuvirtide response, and patient education and support.     

Genotyping of Chlamydia trachomatis in Urine Specimens Will Facilitate Large Epidemiological Studies

The serovars of Chlamydia trachomatis-positive urine specimens (n = 81; as detected by PCR and ligase chain reaction) were successfully analyzed in 94% of cases by omp1 PCR-based RFLP analysis. The use of urine specimens and this simple and sensitive typing method will greatly facilitate epidemiological studies of C. trachomatis serovar distribution in asymptomatic C. trachomatis infections in both females and males.     

Further characterization of morphologically defined typical and atypical CLL: a clinical, immunophenotypic, cytogenetic and prognostic study on 390 cases

We analysed a group of 390 patients, diagnosed with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). Cases were subclassified as morphologically typical and atypical CLL according to the criteria of the FAB proposal. Typical CLL cases were mostly diagnosed at a low-risk stage (Binet A/Rai 0), required no immediate treatment and expected a long survival; atypical CLL cases mostly presented at a more advanced risk stage (Binet B/Rai I–II), usually required immediate treatment and their survival was shorter. Moreover, clinical staging was of prognostic significance in typical but not in atypical cases.   In typical CLL, del(11q) was the most common chromosomal abnormality (21%) whereas in atypical CLL trisomy 12 was found in about 65% of the cases documented with an abnormal karyotype. Although chromosomal abnormalities were associated with a poor survival in typical CLL, they are of no prognostic significance in atypical CLL.   Based on these data, we conclude that subtyping CLL by morphology enables the identification of two groups of cases, each characterized by a specific clinical presentation, different cytogenetic abnormalities and prognostic parameters. We speculate that these two groups may represent two related, but different, diseases with different prognostic parameters and a different survival.     

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved diagnostic effectiveness with a sequential diagnostic paradigm in idiopathic pediatric sensorineural hearing loss.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a stepwise diagnostic paradigm is more diagnostically efficient and cost-effective than a simultaneous testing approach in the evaluation of idiopathic pediatric sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL). DESIGN: Prospective prevalence study. SETTING: Tertiary referral children's hospital. PATIENTS: Consecutive children (n = 150) presenting with idiopathic SNHL in the last 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: All children were evaluated with full diagnostic evaluations including GJB2 screens, temporal bone computed tomography scans, and laboratory investigations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 1) Diagnostic yields of GJB2 screens, imaging, and laboratory results per SNHL category; 2) Cost analysis comparing a sequential versus a simultaneous testing approach. RESULTS: Overall, 12.0% of patients had biallelic mutations in the GJB2 gene, whereas 30% of patients had an abnormality on temporal bone scan. Laboratory testing did not reveal the SNHL etiology in any patient. While maintaining diagnostic accuracy, significant cost savings were inferred by using a sequential diagnostic algorithm. Our data show children with severe to profound SNHL should first be tested with a GJB2 screen, as opposed to those with milder SNHL, who should undergo imaging as the initial testing step. In patients with initially positive GJB2 or imaging screens, logistic regression analysis significantly predicted negative results on further testing. CONCLUSIONS: A stepwise diagnostic paradigm tailored to the level of the hearing loss in children with bilateral SNHL is more diagnostically efficient and cost effective than the more commonly used full, simultaneous testing approach. Laboratory investigation should not be routine but based on clinical history.