Causality in epidemiology: populations, individuals, and alternative explanations

The purpose of the present paper is to review issues concerning causal reasoning in epidemiology, with special emphasis on the relationship between observation at the individual and population level. The sequence of the three sections of the paper, causality in epidemiology, individual and population, alternative explanations, reflects the need to deal with issues of research methodology mainly derived from discussions in the frame of risk assessment, decision making, regulation and legal setting. In discussing the aforementioned topics, special attention is given to the attribution of causality to a single exposure in the presence of a plurality of potential causes. As a case study, data concerning the occurrence of hepatic and pulmonary tumors among subjects exposed to vinyl chloride are considered making reference to hearings on this topic which took place in Court.     

99Tcm-MIBI scintimammography in 300 consecutive patients: factors that may affect accuracy

We evaluated the diagnostic yield of 99Tcm-MIBI scintimammography in a relatively large series of consecutive patients referred for breast surgery on the basis of physical examination or mammogram. 99Tcm-MIBI uptake was correlated to tumour size, receptor status, neovascularity, proliferating activity, P-170 glycoprotein expression and the patient's gonadal state. Three hundred consecutive patients referred to our institution, with either a positive mammogram or a palpable mass, were entered into the study. All patients underwent 99Tcm-MIBI scintimammography. Pathological status was obtained after surgery in all patients. Breast cancer was diagnosed in 218 (73%) patients. The MIBI scan was positive in 89% (194/218) cancer patients and in 17% (14/82) of patients with benign masses (false-positives); the scan was negative in 24 (11%) cancer patients (false-negatives). The sensitivity of MIBI scintigraphy was higher for tumours > 1 cm (95 vs 48% in lesions < or = 1 cm) and in pre-menopausal women (95 vs 85%). Conversely, the specificity was better for lesions < 1 cm (100%) and in post-menopausal women (89%). The positive predictive value of MIBI scan was good both in small (< 1 cm) and large tumours (100% and 93%, respectively) and slightly modified by gonadal state (89% and 96% in pre- and post-menopausal state). The negative predictive value was unsatisfactory, especially in small tumours and in older patients. The diagnostic performance increased stratifying data for tumour size, indicating that lesion size is a major determinant in the diagnostic accuracy of MIBI scintimammography. We conclude that 99Tcm-MIBI scintimammography is useful in the diagnostic evaluation of young patients, because it can select patients for further invasive diagnostic procedures. In older patients, a positive 99Tcm-MIBI scan is highly suggestive of malignancy and might be an indication for surgery. In the case of a negative scan, biopsy is advisable given the poor negative predictive value. Small tumour size and a well-differentiated histotype characterize false-negative cases.     

Atypical squamous cells. A case-series study of the association between papanicolaou smear results and human papillomavirus DNA genotype.

Thirty women with "atypical" squamous cells but not cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) on their Papanicolaou smears were tested for the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) with the Southern blot hybridization technique. The Papanicolaou smears were reviewed for the presence of atypical squamous cells according to Patten's criteria. Comparison groups consisted of 30 patients with normal, 29 patients with CIN I and 24 patients with CIN II Papanicolaou smears. Ten of the 30 women (33%) with atypical cells on Papanicolaou smears were positive for HPV DNA as compared to 17% with normal and 59% with CIN I or II Papanicolaou smears. HPV 16 was present in 70-80% of the HPV DNA-positive patients in each Papanicolaou smear group. Concurrent CIN was also identified on colposcopically directed biopsies in 27% of the patients with squamous atypia. Patients with atypical squamous cells on Papanicolaou smears had coexisting HPV infection and CIN in about one-third of the cases. Colposcopy and further follow-up are recommended for such patients.     

Analysis of the immune response induced by a scorpion venom sub-fraction, a pure peptide and a recombinant peptide, against toxin Cn2 of Centruroides noxius Hoffmann.

Three different immunogens from the venom of the Mexican scorpion Centruroides noxius Hoffmann were used to study protective antibody response in mice and rabbits, challenged with toxin Cn2, one of the most abundant toxic peptide of this venom. The immunogens were: Cn5, a crustacean specific toxin; a recombinant protein containing the peptide Cn5 linked to the maltose transporter and a sub-fraction (F.II.5) containing 25 distinct peptides, among which is Cn5. Mice immunized with these three preparations, when directly challenged with Cn2 presented no apparent protection, whereas anti-sera produced in rabbits with these three immunogens were capable of partially neutralizing the effect of Cn2, when injected into naive mice. Cn5 rabbit anti-serum showed a better protective effect on mice, than the rabbit sera obtained against the two other antigens. The subcutaneous route of challenging mice was shown to be better than intraperitoneal injections. Comparative structural analysis of Cn5 with other toxins of this venom showed that our results are important to be taken into consideration, when choosing appropriate immunogens aimed at the production of better anti-venoms or for the rational design of possible vaccines.     

Pegylated arginine deiminase treatment of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: results from phase I/II studies.

PURPOSE: Recently, we reported that a large number of human hepatocellular cancer (HCC) cell lines were auxotrophic for arginine. Here we report the results obtained with the amino acid-degrading enzyme arginine deiminase (ADI) conjugated to polyethylene glycol (ADI-SS PEG 20,000 mw) as a means of lowering plasma arginine to treat HCC. The study was a cohort dose-escalation phase I/II study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pharmacodynamic studies indicated an ADI-SS PEG 20,000 mw dose level of 160 U/m(2) was sufficient to lower plasma arginine from a resting level of approximately 130 micromol/L to below the level of detection (< 2 micromol/L) for more than 7 days, a dose later defined as the optimal biologic dose. All patients were to receive three cycles at the optimum biologic dose. RESULTS: This therapy was well tolerated, even in patients who had no detectable plasma arginine for 3 continuous months of therapy. Of the 19 patients enrolled, two had a complete response, seven had a partial response, seven had stable disease, and three had progressive disease. The median survival for the 19 patients enrolled on this study was 410 days, with four patients still alive at present (> 680 days). CONCLUSION: Elimination of all detectable plasma arginine in patients with HCC was well tolerated and seemed to be effective in the treatment of some patients with HCC. Further testing of ADI-SS PEG 20,000 mw in a larger population of individuals with HCC as well as other human tumors auxotrophic for arginine is warranted.     

HMGA1 protein overexpression in human breast carcinomas: correlation with ErbB2 expression.

We measured, by immunohistochemistry, HMGA1 protein expression in 212 breast tissue specimens: 6 normal samples, 28 hyperplastic lesions (13 with cellular atypia), 11 fibroadenomas, 10 in situ ductal carcinomas, 144 ductal carcinomas, and 13 lobular carcinomas. HMGA1 was not expressed in normal breast tissue; HMGA1 staining was intense in 40% of hyperplastic lesions with cellular atypia and in 60% of ductal carcinomas and weak in fibroadenomas and in hyperplastic lesions without cellular atypia. Because HMGA1 expression was similar among ductal breast carcinomas with different histologic grading, we evaluated the association between HMGA1 expression and that of other markers of breast carcinoma invasion (estrogen and progesterone receptors, Ki-67 antigen, and ErbB2) in 21 cases of grade 3 breast ductal carcinomas and 7 cases of breast lobular carcinomas. We found that HMGA1 expression tended to be associated only with c-erbB-2 expression (Spearman rho: 0.36; P=0.065). Taken together, these results suggest that HMGA1 expression might be a novel indicator for the diagnosis and prognosis of human breast cancer.     

Prognostic value of CD40 in adult soft tissue sarcomas.

PURPOSE: The purpose is to evaluate the expression of CD40, a membrane protein predominantly expressed on B cells, dendritic cells, and macrophages, in a series of adult soft tissue sarcomas and to test its possible prognostic value. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: CD40 expression was studied by immunohistochemistry. Correlations with other baseline characteristics of patients and tumors were analyzed with chi(2) test. The prognostic value was studied with univariable and multivariable analysis adjusted by age, sex, tumor size, grade, location, and distant metastases. RESULTS: Eighty-two patients, between January 1994 and May 2001, were analyzed. Membrane or cytoplasmic staining for CD40 protein was absent in 30% of the tumors but present in <10% of cells in 22 (27%), in 10% to 50% in 23 (28%), and in >50% of cells in 12 (15%) tumors. There was no correlation between CD40 expression and age, sex, size, grade, and location of the primary tumor and distant metastases. With 61 patients (74.4%) progressed and 31 (37.8%) dead, CD40 expression was a significant prognostic factor for disease-free and overall survival at univariable and multivariable analysis. Patients with tumors expressing CD40 in >50% of cells had a dramatically unfavorable prognosis with median disease-free and overall survival of 7 and 17 months, respectively, and hazard ratios of relapse and death as compared with patients with CD40-negative tumors of 2.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-6.60) and 6.92 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-22.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that expression of CD40 protein in >50% of cells might indicate an unfavorable prognosis in adult soft tissue sarcomas.     

Influence of different hemodialysis membranes on red blood cell susceptibility to oxidative stress

Oxidative stress is crucial in red blood cell (RBC) damage induced by activated neutrophils in in vitro experiments. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether the bioincompatibility phenomena occurring during hemodialysis (HD) (where neutrophil activation with increased free radical production is well documented) may have detrimental effects on RBC. We evaluated RBC susceptibility to oxidative stress before and after HD in 15 patients using Cuprophan, cellulose triacetate, and polysulfone membrane. RBC were incubated with t-butyl hydroperoxide as an oxidizing agent both in the presence and in the absence of the catalase inhibitor sodium azide. The level of malonaldehyde (MDA), a product of lipid peroxidation, was measured at 0, 5, 10, 15, and 30 min of incubation. When Cuprophan membrane was used, the MDA production was significantly higher after HD, indicating an increased susceptibility to oxidative stress in comparison to pre-HD. The addition of sodium azide enhanced this phenomenon. Both cellulose triacetate and polysulfone membranes did not significantly influence RBC susceptibility to oxidative stress. Neither the level of RBC reduced glutathione nor the RBC glutathione redox ratio changed significantly during HD with any of the membranes used. The RBC susceptibility to oxidative stress was influenced in different ways according to the dialysis membrane used, being increased only when using the more bioincompatible membrane Cuprophan, where neutrophil activation with increased free radical production is well documented. The alterations found in this study might contribute to the reduced RBC longevity of HD patients where a bioincompatible membrane is used.     

Conservative surgery for Stage I ovarian carcinoma in women of childbearing age

Objective To assess the results of a policy of tailored conservative surgical management for young women with stage I ovarian carcinomas.
Design Retrospective study.
Participants Ninety-nine women aged 40 years or younger who underwent either primary surgery in our department or were referred after primary surgery performed elsewhere.
Methods Of the 99 women in our study, 56 underwent fertility-sparing surgery and 43 more radical surgery. Minimal requirements for conservative management were adequate staging and complete information about the therapeutic options. Factors important in the choice of the treatment were, age, wish to preserve fertility, histologic type and grade, and the stage of the tumour.
Results Conservative treatment was conducted in 84% of nulliparous and in 33% of parous women; 62% of grade 1 tumours, 48% of grade 2, and 50% of grade 3 were treated conservatively. With a median follow up of seven years, we observed five recurrences (9%) of carcinoma in women treated conservatively and five (12%) in those treated more radically. Two women (one in each treatment arm) were saved after recurrence. Two recurrences after conservative surgery involved the residual ovary (3.6%). Two women developed borderline tumour in the contralateral ovary and both were treated by surgery.
Conclusion After adequate staging and accurate information is given to the patient, conservative treatment may be safe in some women with early ovarian cancer. The risk of recurrence in the contralateral ovary is low. Conservative surgery may be also considered in some Stage I grade 3 tumours and in some women with stage IC tumours.     

Differences in myocardial and peripheral VEGF and KDR levels after acute ischemia

Background. Recent clinical use of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the treatment of both myocardial and peripheral ischemia has suggested the possibility of tissue specific coregulation of VEGF and its receptors (eg, kinase domain region [KDR]). The present study was performed to detect the relationship between VEGF and KDR protein levels after acute myocardial and peripheral ischemia.

Methods. Eleven dogs were divided into two groups: peripheral ischemia (n = 6, ligation of major limb arteries) and myocardial ischemia (n = 5, circumflex artery ligation). Muscle biopsy specimens were taken from the perfusion territories of the occluded circumflex artery and limb arteries 3 hours and 6 hours after ligation. Protein levels were determined using Western blot analysis.

Results. In myocardium, VEGF levels increased on average eightfold from baseline (p < 0.05) both 3 hours and 6 hours after occlusion, whereas myocardial KDR levels dropped by about 60% at 3 hours and 80% at 6 hours (p < 0.05). With limb ischemia, both VEGF and KDR levels were significantly elevated at 3 hours.

Conclusions. In acute ischemia, regulation of VEGF and KDR may be controlled differently in cardiac and skeletal muscle. Myocardial KDR levels showed a significant decrease from baseline compared with a significant rise with peripheral ischemia.