Public health implications of opening National Football League stadiums during the COVID-19 pandemic

Using attendance data from the 2020 National Football League (NFL) regular season and local COVID-19 case counts, we estimate the public health impact of opening NFL stadiums to fans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data are analyzed using robust synthetic control, a statistical method that is employed to obtain counterfactual estimates from observational data. Unlike previous studies [J. Kurland et al., SSRN, 2021], which do not consider confounding factors such as evolving policy landscapes in different states, the synthetic control methodology allows us to account for effects that are county specific and may be changing over time. We find it is likely that opening stadiums had no impact on local COVID-19 case counts; this suggests that, for the 2020 NFL season, the benefits of providing a tightly controlled outdoor spectating environment—including masking and distancing requirements—counterbalanced the risks associated with opening. These results are specific to the 2020 NFL season, and care should be taken in generalizing our conclusions. In particular, 1) these data reflect a period during which earlier strains of COVID-19 were dominant prior to the emergence of more-transmissive strains such as the Delta and Omicron variants, and 2) the data are restricted to outdoor environments; hence our results cannot be applied to small indoor spaces where transmission-restricting controls are essential.

A year and a half into the global COVID-19 pandemic, we have an opportunity to analyze and reflect upon the policies and decisions enacted over the past 18 mo. Given the distributed nature of policy decisions in the United States, we find ourselves in a unique position in which states and municipalities have explored different strategies to combat the virus, and the efficacy of those policies has been imprinted in the local case counts, hospitalizations, and death records. In particular, these data contain a wealth of information about which policies have proven to be effective in preserving the health and safety of our communities.One activity that one may wish to consider is the opening of outdoor sporting events to spectators. This question has recently generated quite a bit of interest as ballparks across the nation open for summer and events such as the 2021 Summer Olympics in Japan take place.^* On the one hand, governing bodies are naturally wary of opening stadiums given the well-documented importance of avoiding large gatherings. On the other hand, sporting events are often held outdoors, where airflow is largely unobstructed (1), and in venues where crowd density can be carefully controlled if the event is properly managed. In the absence of a detailed analysis, it is not immediately obvious which of these effects dominates.Data from the National Football League (NFL) may provide an answer to this question. During the 2020 regular season, teams in the NFL collaborated with local communities to determine whether or not to allow fans in the stadiums during the pandemic. In general, stadiums that opened their doors to fans adopted pandemic requirements for all in attendance (1), which typically include some combination of staggered entry, required masking, health questionnaires, temperature checks for staff, deployment of compliance officers, modified concessions, social distancing in seating and lines, mobile ticketing, enhanced cleaning protocols, amplified health and safety communications, and capacity limitations. The highest capacity that any NFL stadium allowed during the 2020 regular season was 30% (Dallas), with most other stadiums considerably below that limit (2). These policy decisions were made based on local guidelines, local prevalence, community risk tolerance, and other localized considerations; some stadiums ultimately decided to allow fans at the games, while others remained closed, providing perhaps the first set of natural experiments that can be analyzed to investigate the impact of opening stadiums on COVID-19 case rates. In the words of Kurland et al. (3), who recently provided a first look at this data, “Scant evidence has been gathered in the extant literature on the impact of sport venues on local public health, influenza-related mortality rates, or disease contagion more generally. There is a complete absence of any evidence related to the impact of fans gathering at sporting events, or mass gatherings more generally, on incidence of COVID-19 at the local-level.” The natural experiments from the 2020 NFL season and other sports leagues present a golden opportunity to address these questions in the context of the original 2020 COVID-19 strain (4, 5).In the Kurland et al. (3) study, the authors compared COVID-19 case data from NFL stadium counties that allowed fans in the stadium to counties that did not allow fans, and looked for spikes in the data in the weeks following a game; the authors concluded, from this analysis, that the presence of large numbers of fans at NFL games led to “tangible increases” in the local incidence of COVID-19 cases. However, this type of analysis may be problematic: In this context, the control stadiums (i.e., those without fans) tend to be embedded in states with stricter COVID-19 policies—rather than a random control—so the sample of control counties is strongly biased. New York and Dallas, for example, are immersed in very different environments with different pandemic policies, and it is not at all obvious that one can attribute the differences in case spikes to the stadiums, given the enormous number of confounding factors.Fortunately, there exists a rich literature of techniques—longitudinal methods, hierarchical methods, factor model methods, synthetic control, etc.—that we can draw upon to account for these confounding factors. In this particular analysis, we turn to synthetic control (6–9), which has been applied in a diversity of fields—criminology (10), healthcare (11), sports (12), and political science and policy evaluation (13–15), to name a few. At its heart, synthetic control is a method for estimating a counterfactual in the absence of an intervention, in this case, what would have happened if stadiums had not opened. The method provides a systematic way to choose relevant comparison units when randomized controls are not available.To illustrate the power of synthetic control, imagine the ideal experiment one would like to run in order to quantify the impact of opening the Dallas stadium to fans. In principle, we would like to have COVID-19 case counts from Dallas County throughout the season with the stadium open to fans and case counts from a Dallas twin—with identical people and policies to the first Dallas—in which the stadium did not open for comparison. The first set of data (Dallas open to fans) is readily available. The second set of data can be constructed from information from other counties in Texas—hereafter referred to as donor counties—which have policies and characteristics similar to Dallas. Synthetic control provides a methodology to build a weighted combination of these Dallas-like counties, which can then be used as a control group, that is, a “synthetic” Dallas twin. In particular, we seek the linear combination of case counts from other Texas counties that most closely mirrors the Dallas case counts prior to the stadium opening. Given that none of these non-Dallas counties have a stadium, this linear combination can be extended postintervention (i.e., after opening the stadium) to estimate what would have happened in the synthetic Dallas in which no stadium opened. Once it has been established that the stadium county and the synthetically generated county have similar behavior over extended periods of time prior to the intervention, a discrepancy in the number of COVID-19 cases following the intervention may be interpreted as a result of allowing fans in the stadium. One of the advantages of this method is that it can account for the effects of confounding factors that are county specific and may be changing over time, which is crucial in the ever-evolving policy landscape of a pandemic (16). In particular, our methodology allows for correlation between the decision to open the stadium and characteristics that define the county (cultural or political leaning, population density, demographics, etc.), but cannot account for correlations between the decision and exogenous noise.At this point, it is reasonable to speculate whether one should expect linear combinations of donor counties to accurately represent stadium counties (both observed and counterfactual). In general, assuming linearity is appropriate provided there exists an underlying low-dimensional structure to the case count data, that is, if the matrix containing discretized time series of donor county case counts is approximately low rank. Under a such a setting, linearity between counties is an almost immediate consequence (see Materials and Methods for details). This low-rank assumption is common in the matrix completion literature; notably, low-rank matrices have also been shown to naturally arise in modern datasets and emerge from “well-behaved” generative models (e.g., Lipschitz functions) (17–20). This point will be revisited in Results, where we test for low rankedness empirically in the context of our dataset.Finally, the selection of donor units is a critical step in the successful implementation of creating a synthetic control. In particular, donor units (in our case, counties) should have the following characteristics:

• 1)Counties affected by the intervention or by events of a similar nature should be excluded from the donor pool.
• 2)Counties that may have suffered large “idiosyncratic shocks” (7, 21) during the preintervention period should be excluded.
• 3)The donor pool should be restricted to counties with characteristics similar to the stadium county; in this case, we restrict our pool to counties from the same state to maintain some consistency in COVID-19 policies.
• 4)Case counts that cover an extended period of time prior to the intervention are required for both stadium counties and donor counties.

In order to establish which counties satisfy these constraints, the NFL provided us with aggregate attendance data indicating the percentage of fans from each county in each state (2). In general, 10% or more of the fans come from the county in which the stadium is located. Hence, we designate counties that provided more than 10% of the fan base as stadium counties. In addition, there are a number of counties that are home to many fans but not to the same extent as that of the stadium counties. Since there is some ambiguity as to whether these counties should be counted as stadium counties or donor counties, we designate counties that supply between 1% and 10% of the fan base as buffer counties and, in light of the first criterion above, do not include them as either stadium or donor counties. Second, to address criterion 3, we only include counties in the donor pool that come from the same state as the stadium county. Although there is variation at the county level, overarching COVID-19 guidance, in general, comes from the states; hence, we assume that policies are relatively consistent within states and allow that they may vary dramatically from state to state. In addition, we only retain counties in which at least 200 cases have been recorded, in order to eliminate donor counties that are either markedly underreporting or undertesting. Finally, we are fortunate that football season starts in September, which allows us to address criterion 4; given that relatively reliable COVID-19 case count data have been available since approximately April 2020, we have 4 mo of training data at our disposal to learn the weights for the synthetic counties. Criterion 2 is trickier, given that we do not necessarily know, a priori, all events that could cause a shock to the system; however, a posteriori, we can investigate the outcomes and look for signs of such a shock.^†     

General practitioners' reactions to non-compliant patients

Objective - To examine how general practitioners (GPs) respond to patients who are non-compliant with medical advice and who doctors believe act irresponsibly towards their health. Design - Quantitative analysis of responses to questionnaire with case histories. Setting and subjects - 93 questionnaires completed by a random stratified sample of Norwegian GPs. Main outcome measures - Scores relating to GPs' feelings and choice of main and sub-strategies for further treatment of patients. Results - The respondents typically felt discouraged or unaffected by non-compliant patients, younger doctors more often felt helpless while older ones were more content, and female doctors more often than male doctors felt irritated or angry. The main strategy preferred was to give the patient a new appointment. The young, the inexperienced, and females tended more often to ask a colleague for advice or refer to a specialist. Patient-centred sub-strategies were generally preferred, especially by younger doctors. Conclusion - GPs' feelings towards and strategies for dealing with non-compliant patients vary, and the doctor's age, sex and clinical experience are central variables.     

Declining trends in conception rates in recent birth cohorts of native Danish women: a possible role of deteriorating male reproductive health

Recent findings of poor semen quality among at least 20% of normal young men in Denmark prompted us to use unique Danish registers on births and induced abortions to evaluate a possible effect of the poor male fecundity on pregnancy rates among their presumed partners--the younger cohorts of women. We have analysed data from the Danish birth and abortion registries as well as the Danish registry for assisted reproduction (ART) and defined a total natural conception rate (TNCR), which is equal to fertility rate plus induced abortion rate minus ART conception rate. A unique personal identification number allowed the linkage of these databases. Our database included 706,270 native Danish women born between 1960 and 1980. We used projections to estimate the fertility of the later cohorts of women who had not yet finished their reproduction. We found that younger cohorts had progressively lower TNCR and that in terms of their total fertility rate, the declining TNCR is compensated by an increasing use of ART. Our hypothesis of an ongoing birth cohort-related decline in fecundity was also supported by our finding of increasing and substantial use of ART in the management of infertility of relatively young couples in the later cohorts. Furthermore, the lower rates of induced abortion among the younger birth cohorts, often viewed as a success of health education programs, may not be fully explained by improved use of contraception. It seems more likely that decreased fecundity because of widespread poor semen quality among younger cohorts of otherwise normal men may explain some of the observed decline in conception rates. This may imply increasing reproductive health problems and lower fertility in the future, which is difficult to reverse in the short term. The current and projected widespread use of ART in Denmark may be a sign of such an emerging public health problem.     

Case report: Fatal hepatic failure after aortic valve replacement and sevoflurane exposure

PURPOSE: To report a case of lethal hepatotoxicity possibly caused by sevoflurane. CLINICAL FEATURES: A 76-yr-old woman with a history of four previous minor surgical procedures developed acute liver failure after general anesthesia with sevoflurane, sufentanil and propofol for aortic valve replacement. After an uneventful procedure the patient was extubated 4.5 hr after surgery. On the second postoperative day, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) increased. On the third postoperative day liver failure occurred, ALT peaked at 10504 UxL(-1) and AST at 15516 UxL(-1), and coagulopathy with an international normalized ratio of 4.6 developed. Liver transplantation was considered but rejected as a therapeutic option. The patient died three days after the operation in multiple organ failure triggered by hepatic failure. Other possible causes for liver failure were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Sevoflurane hepatitis as a cause for liver failure may be implicated in this patient undergoing valve surgery. Unlike other halogenated anesthetic drugs, sevoflurane is not metabolized to hepatotoxic trifluoroacetyl proteins. However, compound A may react with proteins and may be transformed into antigenic material. We suggest that all halogenated anesthetics may be implicated with acute liver injury.     

Ascending aortic aneurysm associated with bicuspid and tricuspid aortic valve: involvement and clinical relevance of smooth muscle cell apoptosis and expression of cell death-initiating proteins.

OBJECTIVE: There is relationship between a dilated ascending aorta and a bicuspid aortic valve. Controversy exists concerning techniques available for surgical restoration of the functional and anatomical integrity of the aortic root. The present study was undertaken to define the histopathologic and molecular biologic condition of ascending aortic aneurysms associated with bicuspid (BAV) or tricuspid aortic valve (TAV) and the relationship to valve sparing or pulmonary autograft procedures. METHODS: Aortic aneurysm wall specimens from 20 patients (10 BAV; 10 TAV) undergoing elective repair and normal aortic tissues from organ donors (n=5) were analysed for patterns of smooth muscle cells (SMCs) and infiltrating leukocytes (immunohistochemistry), apoptosis (in situ end-labelling of DNA-fragments (TUNEL)), and expression of the death-promoting proteins perforin, Fas, and FasLigand (Immunoblotting). RESULTS: Segments from aneurysms exhibited a distinct pattern of medial destruction, elastic fragmentation, and disorientation with rarefication of SMCs. BAV wall segments contained more cells bearing markers of apoptosis than TAV specimens whereas normal aorta displayed only few apoptotic cells (P<0.05). TUNEL showed higher levels of DNA fragmentation in BAV than in TAV, and double immunostaining identified SMCs as the principal cell type displaying fragmented DNA. Immunohistochemistry confirmed expression of death-promoting mediators by infiltrating lymphocytes, and Western blotting documented their presence in BAV and TAV aneurysmal tissue, with the greatest increases seen in specimens from aneurysms associated with BAV. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence for a molecular link between SMC apoptosis initiated by infiltration and local signal expression of immune cells and weakening of the aortic wall being more prevalent in patients with BAV. Our findings may suggest a mechanism responsible for aneurysm formation of the aorta and aortic dilatation after autograft root or sinus remodelling procedures.     

Severity of injury does not have any impact on posttraumatic stress symptoms in severely injured patients

Background

Due to improved surgical techniques and more efficient decision making in treating severely injured patients, survival rates have increased over the years. This study was initiated to evaluate the incidence and identify risk factors for developing posttraumatic stress symptoms, using both extensive trauma-related data and data assessing the psychological trauma, in a population of severely injured patients.

Patients and methods

79 patients admitted to the Department of Multitrauma and Spinal Cord Injury at Sunnaas Rehabilitation Hospital from 2003 to 2005, prospectively completed semistructured psychological interviews and questionnaires, such as Impact of Event Scale-Revised. In addition, extensive injury-related data, such as injury severity score (ISS), new injury severity score (NISS), and probability of survival (PS) were collected.

Results

39% had multiple trauma, 34% had multiple injuries including spinal cord injuries, and 27% had isolated spinal cord injuries. Mean NISS was 31.5 (S.D. 13.7). 6% met diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 9% met the criteria for subsyndromal PTSD. Injury-related data did not influence the prevalence of posttraumatic stress symptoms, however, some psychosocial variables did have a significant impact.

Conclusions

We found a low incidence of PTSD and subsyndromal PTSD. No significant differences were found between the patients suffering from posttraumatic stress symptoms and the non-symptoms group in relation to injury-related data such as ISS/NISS, PS, or multiple trauma versus spinal cord injury. The most evident risk factors for developing posttraumatic stress symptoms were symptoms of anxiety, female gender and negative attitudes toward emotional expression.     

Accuracy of tympanometric middle ear pressure determination: the role of direction and rate of pressure change with a fast, modern tympanometer.

HYPOTHESIS: Modern tympanometers run at higher rates of pressure change than older tympanometers, which increases the inaccuracy of determining the middle ear pressure. BACKGROUND: Tympanometric middle ear pressure may be susceptible to both the direction as well as the rate of pressure change, which is reflected by two different pressure peaks in a bidirectional recording. The resulting peak pressure difference results in an inaccuracy, which can amount to 25 daPa in older instruments with slower rates of pressure change. However, modern instruments often apply much faster rates, which may increase the peak pressure difference and thus the inaccuracy of middle ear pressure. METHODS: Middle ear pressure was measured for a negative and positive direction of pressure change at four different rates (50, 100, 200, and 400 daPa/s) in 38 normal adults. The peak pressure difference was calculated by the middle ear pressure determined in positive minus negative direction. RESULTS: The mean peak pressure differences ranged between 10 and 12 daPa (standard deviation = 8-11) in the four groups and were independent of the rate of pressure change (p = 0.321). CONCLUSION: The peak pressure differences found by the current tympanometer were consistently small for all rates of pressure change and were thus independent of the rate. This means that high rates can be used without decreasing accuracy, and the mean error is only 5 to 6 daPa, corresponding to the intrinsic hysteresis of the middle ear system.