A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability.     

Population health metrics: crucial inputs to the development of evidence for health policy

Valid, reliable and comparable measures of the health states of individuals and of the health status of populations are critical components of the evidence base for health policy. We need to develop population health measurement strategies that coherently address the relationships between epidemiological measures (such as risk exposures, incidence, and mortality rates) and multi-domain measures of population health status, while ensuring validity and cross-population comparability.     

Breast and cervical cancer survival: making sense of ‘league tables’

During 1998, the Department of Health proposed to use survival rates of cervical and breast cancer in the 1989/90 incidence cohort as indicators of care. Valid interpretation was of concern within Trent and the Trent Cancer Registry responded by performing additional analyses. Trent Cancer Registry registrations for 1989/90 were re-analysed and the stability of districts' ranks for that cohort was investigated using random simulation techniques. Stability of ranks across more recent cohorts was investigated and attempts made to use all available information.The Department of Health's analyses were confirmed by our re-analysis of the 1989/90 cohort: Rotherham residents appeared to have the "worst" survival for cervical cancer, and Sheffield residents for breast cancer, although not statistically significantly so. Random simulations indicated that ranks based on a single cohort are not stable: for example Sheffield (ranked tenth for 1-y breast cancer survival) was ranked third or better in 6% of randomisations. Ranks were also unstable across cohorts: for example Rotherham 1-y cervical cancer survival was ranked tenth for 1989/90, fifth for 1991/92 and tenth for 1993/94. Analysis of 3-y running averages provided better information than the league table approach. Most districts improved over time, to different degrees, and similar sized gaps remained between the "best" and the "worst" districts. This analysis illustrates the need to be circumspect when interpreting "league tables" based on a single year or cohort analysis. League tables are based on ranks: clearly a large difference in rank may reflect only trivial (ie medically unimportant) differences in actual outcome. Lack of a statistically significant difference in survival between two districts does not mean their survival is equivalent. Even for a common cancer, like breast cancer, rankings were unstable from cohort to cohort. At the Registry we propose to perform these trend analyses routinely in future, adjusting, when possible, for the effects of deprivation and stage at diagnosis.     

Abnormal surfactant composition and activity in severe bronchiolitis

A prospective study of infants under 1 y of age, ventilated for severe viral bronchiolitis, was carried out in four paediatric intensive care units in order to study surfactant activity and composition in this condition. Lung lavage fluid from 24 infants with bronchiolitis, 19 with bronchiolitis and sepsis or cardiac failure and 12 controls were analysed by the “click test” for surfactant activity and for phospholipids. Surfactant activity was present in all controls, but in only 2 of the 24 infants with bronchiolitis alone. The presence of phosphatidylglycerol correlated perfectly with the click test, suggesting that reduced activity is due to changes in surfactant lipid composition. In those with bronchiolitis plus coexisting disease, surfactant activity and phosphatidylglycerol were absent in only half. Surfactant activity and phosphatidylglycerol re-appeared by extubation. Severe viral bronchiolitis is associated with an absence of surfactant activity and PG, which resolves by clinical recovery. Infants with coexisting conditions are not always surfactant deficient. Surfactant administration is likely to be beneficial, but requires a selective approach.     

Lipohemarthrosis of the knee: a review of recent experiences

The radiographs of 268 patients with knee trauma were retrospectively reviewed. In 15 patients with intraarticular fracture, the images demonstrated fat-fluid levels. In 28 other patients with intraarticular fracture, only joint effusion without a fat-fluid level was depicted. The presence of a fat-fluid level in the knee indicated fracture in all patients in whom it was seen. The absence of such a level, however, did not exclude intraarticular fracture.     

DA8 Evaluating Health Outcomes and Pharmacoeconomic Literature

In 1997, the United States Pharmacopeia (USP) established an Ad Hoc Outcomes/Cost Effectiveness Advisory Panel to consider the development of specifications for compiling, indexing, and evaluating outcomes research/cost-effectiveness literature on a disease-specific basis. Such a resource could be used to support pharmaceutical therapy choice decision making by a variety of potential users. The USP had developed a protype health outcomes and pharmacoeconomic annotated registry of the literature on the disease state, congestive heart failure. Other organizations have established and are marketing pharmacoeconomic and health outcome literature registries, with two examples being the HEED database (OHE-IFPMA Database Ltd.) and the University of York NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (DARE).
OBJECTIVE: To share experiences and to identify the needs of decision makers for outcome/pharmacoeconomic information and to discuss whether they are being met by currently available literature sources. Decision makers include health care practitioners, managed care organizations, third party payers, industry and governments.
WORKSHOP FORMAT: The USP congestive heart failure protype literature registry will be described and compared to currently available pharmacoeconomic/outcome databases. Participants will share their assessment of the currently available abstracting service/databases and determine if there is a role for further developments.
DESIRED OUTCOME: To determine if there is a need for a collaborative approach among interested parties to make relevant health outcome/pharmacoeconomic information more accessible to the drug therapy decision makers in a format that is "user friendly."