The use of mathematical models in the epidemiological study of infectious diseases and in the design of mass immunization programmes

The relationship between the number of people vaccinated for an infectious disease and the resulting decrease in incidence of the disease is not straightforward and linear because many independent variables determine the course of infection. However, these variables are quantifiable and can therefore by used to model the course of an infectious disease and impact of mass vaccination. Before one can construct a model, one must know for any specific infectious disease the number of individuals in the community protected by maternally derived antibodies, the number susceptible to infectious the number infected but not yet infectious (i.e., with latent infection), the number of infectious individuals, and the number of recovered (i.e., immune) individuals. Compartmental models are sets of differential equations which describe the rates of flow of individuals between these categories. Several major epidemiologic concepts comprise the ingredients of the model: the net rate of infection (i.e., incidence), the per capita rate of infection, the Force of Infection, and the basic reproductive rate of infection. When a community attains a high level of vaccination coverage, it is no longer necessary to vaccinate everyone because the herd immunity of the population protects the unvaccinated because it lowers the likelihood of their coming into contact with an infectious individual. Many infections that confer lasting immunity tend to have interepidemic periods when the number of susceptibles is too low to sustain an epidemic. Mass vacination programs reduce the net rate of transmission of the infective organism; they also increase the length of the interepidemic period. Many diseases primawrily associated with children have much more serious consequences in older people and the question arises as to at what point childhood immunization will successfully prevent the more dangerous incidence of the disease in older cohorts. Mathematical models of disease transmission enable one to predict the course of epidemics, design mass vaccination programs, and be guided as to what are the relevant data that should be collected.     

Normative study of grip and wrist flexion strength employing a BTE Work Simulator

The BTE Work Simulator is used in strengthening and endurance programs providing objective information concerning a patient's progress from such programs. This study establishes normative data for grip and wrist flexion strength employing a BTE Work Simulator. For each part of this study, the right hand of 200 normal men between the ages of 30 and 40 years were tested. This study has established benchmark or reference values for the BTE Work Simulator. Normative values provide both objective data, for comparison of the patient to the general population, and long-term goals for which to strive during the rehabilitation process.     

Occurrence of the t(2;5)(p23;q35) in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

Primary CD30(Ki-1)-positive anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL) is considered by some to be a distinct clinicopathologic entity associated with the t(2;5) (p23;q35). However, the specificity of t(2;5) for ALCL has not been carefully studied. Therefore, we performed a detailed analysis of all cases of ALCL with abnormal cytogenetics results in the Nebraska Lymphoma Study Group registry, as well as all other cases of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma with t(2;5) in the registry. We found the t(2;5) in only five of 10 cases of ALCL, four of whom were young patients. However, we also found the t(2;5) in 11 other cases of nonanaplastic lymphoma, including eight children with typical peripheral T-cell lymphomas of various types. The t(2;5) was also found in three older adults with B-cell lymphomas of various types. Thus, the t(2;5) was not specific for CD30+ ALCL. However, t(2;5) may define a clinicopathologic entity in children and young adults characterized by variable morphologies with a T-cell or indeterminate phenotype, CD30-positivity, nodal disease with frequent extranodal involvement, advanced stage, and an excellent response to therapy, including bone marrow transplantation for relapsed disease. The clinical relevance of the t(2;5) in older patients requires further study.     

REPERFUSION FOLLOWING MYOCARDIAL ISCHAEMIA ENHANCES INOSITOL PHOSPHATE RELEASE IN THE ISOLATED PERFUSED RAT HEART

1. Global myocariial ischaemia (MI) for periods greater tan 5 min caused an inhibition of phosphatidylinositol specific phospholipase C (PtdIns-PLC) activity. 2. Two min reperfusion following a 20 min MI period, a time point associated with reperfusion-induced arrhythmias, resulted in an activation of PtdIns-PLC activity, dependent on endogenous noradrenaline and mediated via al-adrenoceptors. 3. This 2 min reperfusion response, in contrast to healthy myocardium, resulted in: (i) enhanced PtdIns-PLC activity; (ii) increased sensitivity to endogenous noradrenaline; (iii) rapid increases in inositol(1,4,5)trisphosphate (Ins(1,4,5)P3); and (iv) PLC hydrolysis primarily of PtdIns(4,5)P₂, such that the majority of InsP isomers derive from Ins(1,4,5)P₃. 4. Together, these data suggest a functional role for Ins(1,4,5)P3 under postischaemic reperfusion conditions, and provide a possible link between al-adrenoceptor stimulation of the PtdIns turnover pathway and reperfusion injury.     

Effect of pindolol on endocrine and temperature responses to buspirone in healthy volunteers

Ten healthy subjects received buspirone (30 mg orally) with and without pre-treatment with the 5-HT1A receptor antagonist, pindolol (80 mg over 3 days). Following pindolol treatment the growth hormone and hypothermic responses to buspirone were significantly decreased. There was also a delay in the onset of the prolactin response to buspirone but the total amount of prolactin secretion, calculated as area under the curve, was not significantly reduced. The data suggest that the growth hormone and hypothermic responses to buspirone in humans are mediated by 5-HT1A receptors, but an explanation founded on pharmacokinetic factors cannot presently be excluded. Both this latter possibility and the lack of selectivity of pindolol for 5-HT receptors indicate the need for the further neuroendocrine studies of the mode of action of buspirone, preferably with more selective 5-HT1A receptor antagonists.     

Separation of oxidant-initiated and redox-regulated steps in the NF-kappa B signal transduction pathway.

Studies presented here show that overall NF-kappa B signal transduction begins with a parallel series of stimuli-specific pathways through which cytokines (tumor necrosis factor alpha), oxidants (hydrogen peroxide and mitomycin C), and phorbol ester (phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate) individually initiate signaling. These initial pathways culminate in a common pathway through which all of the stimulating agents ultimately signal NF-kappa B activation. We distinguish the stimuli-specific pathways by showing that the oxidative stimuli trigger NF-kappa B activation in only one of two human T-cell lines (Wurzburg but not Jurkat), whereas tumor necrosis factor alpha and phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate readily stimulate in both lines. We propose the common pathway as the simplest way of accounting for the common requirements and properties of the signaling pathway. We include a redox-regulatory mechanism(s) in this common pathway to account for the previously demonstrated redox regulation of NF-kappa B activation in Jurkat cells (in which oxidants don't activate NF-kappa B); we put tyrosine phosphorylation in the common pathway by showing that kinase activity (inhibitable by herbimycin A and tyrphostin 47) is required for NF-kappa B activation by all stimuli tested in both cell lines. Since internal sites of oxidant production have been shown to play a key role in the cytokine-stimulated activation of NF-kappa B, and since tyrosine kinase and phosphatase activities are known to be altered by oxidants, these findings suggest that intracellular redox status controls NF-kappa B activation by regulating tyrosine phosphorylation event(s) within the common step of the NF-kappa B signal transduction pathway.     

A cohort study of tobacco use,diet, occupation,and lung cancer mortality

In 1966, a cohort of White males aged 35 or over, who were policy-holders with the Lutheran Brotherhood Insurance Society (United States), completed a mail questionnaire on tobacco use, diet, and demographic characteristics. During the 20 years of follow-up, 219 lung cancer deaths occurred. Besides the strong relationship with cigarette smoking, we observed an effect on lung cancer risk among current users of cigars or pipes who were nonsmokers of cigarettes (relative risk [RR]=3.5, 95 percent confidence interval[CI]=1.0–12.6) or who were past/occasional users of cigarettes (RR=2.7, CI=1.4–5.3). In addition, elevated risks (from 1.5 to 2.6) of lung cancer were found among craftsmen and laborers, with the highest risks among subjects who worked in the mining or manufacturing industry. No association between current (as of 1966) use of beer or hard liquor and lung cancer was observed, although past users were at elevated risk. An inverse association between lung cancer and intake of fruits was observed, and risks of lung cancer were lower among persons in the highest dietary intake quintiles of vitamins A and C. Except for oranges, however, none of the inverse associations with fruits or dietary nutrients had statistically significant trends. The findings from this cohort study add to the evidence of an adverse effect of cigar/pipe smoking and possibly protective effect of dietary factors on lung cancer risk.     

Effect of Glycemic Carbohydrates on Short-term Satiety and Food Intake

We examine the relationships between glycemic carbohydrate and its effects on short-term satiety and food intake. Both high- and low-glycemic carbohydrates have an impact on satiety, but their effects have different time courses. High-glycemic carbohydrates are associated with a reduction in appetite and food intake in the short term (e.g., one hour), whereas the satiating effects of lower-glycemic carbohydrates appear to be delayed (e.g., 2 to 3 hours). There is no consistent evidence that an increase in blood glucose, either acute or sustained, is the primary determinant of their effects on food intake and satiety. Many other preabsorptive and postabsorptive signals for satiety exist and may be the determining factors. Further studies are needed to delineate the role of glycemic carbohydrates and their mechanisms of action in determining satiety.