Predicting survival and recurrence in localized melanoma: A multivariate approach

Several clinical and pathologic factors appear to affect melanoma recurrence and survival. While much attention has been directed at identifying prognostic factors, few researchers have developed predictive models for survival and recurrence. Two major clinical questions are of interest in the management of melanoma: 1) what is the patient's chance of surviving for a given period, e.g., 5 or 10 years, after diagnosis of melanoma; and 2) after a patient has been disease free for a period of time, e.g., 5 years, what is his or her chance of melanoma recurrence or death in the following interval, e.g., 5 years or 10 years. In this paper, a generalized multivariate prognostic model to address both of these clinical questions is presented.Tables of the estimated probabilities of melanoma recurrence and death for prognostic subgroups are shown to facilitate prediction of an individual patient's outcome. The model was based on a database of 4,568 patients with localized melanoma, one of the largest melanoma databases in the world with detailed clinical and pathologic information, and long-term follow-up. Tumor thickness at diagnosis was the single most important prognostic factor for all outcomes. Tumor ulceration, Clark's level, lesion location, and sex had an impact on overall survival from diagnosis for some of the subgroups defined by tumor thickness. Tumor thickness at diagnosis was strongly indicative of melanoma recurrence and death even after a disease free interval of 2, 5, or 10 years. Lesion location and ulceration were of prognostic importance after disease free intervals up to 5 years, but their impact on melanoma recurrence and death diminished after longer disease free intervals.Prediction models for melanoma outcome at diagnosis and after a disease free period can provide useful information to clinicians in the management of melanoma patients. Utilization of the model will be valuable in identifying patients at high risk for melanoma recurrence and death.

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Resumen Diversos factores clínicos y patológicos parecen afectar las tasas de recurrencia y mortalidad del melanoma. En tanto que se ha dispensado bastante atención en cuanto a identificar factores de pronóstico, pocos investigadores han desarrollado modelos de predicción de sobrevida y de recurrencia. Dos interrogantes principales son de interés en cuanto al manejo del melanoma: 1) cual es la probabilidad del paciente de sobrevivir un determinado período, por ejemplo 5 o 10 años, después del diagnóstico de melanoma; y 2) después de que el paciente se ha mantenido libre de enfermedad por un período de tiempo, por ejemplo 5 años, cual es su probabilidad de recurrencia del melanoma o de muerte en el siguiente período de tiempo, por ejemplo 5 o 10 años. En este artículo se presenta un modelo generalizado y multivariable de pronóstico para enfrentar estos interrogantes clínicos.Se presentan tablas para estimar las probabilidades de recurrencia y de muerte en divesos subgrupos de pronóstico que facilitan la predicción del destino final de un individuo. El modelo se fundamentó en una base de datos de 4568 pacientes con melanomas localizado, una de las más grandes bases de datos de melanoma existentes en el mundo, con detallada información clínica y patológica y con seguimiento a largo plazo. El espesor del tumor en el momento del diagnóstico apareció como el factor individual de pronóstico de mayor importancia. La ulceración del tumor, el nivel de Clark, la ubicación de la lesión y el sexo exhibieron importancia en cuanto a la sobrevida para algunos de los subgrupos definidos según el espesor del tumor. El espesor del tumor en el momento del diagnóstico fue un factor fuertemente indicativo de recurrencia y de muerte, aún después de un intervalo libre de enfermedad de 2, 5 o 10 años. La ubicación de la lesión y la ulceración aparecieron como de importancia en cuanto el pronóstico después de intervalos libres de enfermedad hasta de 5 años, pero tal importancia disminuyó después de intervalos libres de enfermedad de mayor duración.Los modelos de predicción del resultado final en el melanoma aplicados en el momento del diagnóstico y después de un período libre de enfermedad pueden proveer información útil para el manejo clínico de pacientes con melanomas. La utilización del modelo es de valor en la identificación de pacientes con mayor riesgo de recurrencia y muerte por melanoma.

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Résumé Plusieurs facteurs cliniques et anatomopathologiques semblent déterminer la récidive et la survie des mélanomes. De nombreux auteurs se sont intéressés à l'identidification des facteurs de pronostic, mais peu d'équipes ont essayé d'élaborer un modèle permettant de prédire survie et récidive. Deux problèmes restent à résoudre dans le traitement des mélanomes: 1) quelles sont les chances de survie après le diagnostic de mélanome pour un patient donné, pendant une période donnée, par exemple 5 à 10 ans et 2) quels sont les risques de récidive ou de décès dans les 5 à 10 ans qui suivent une période donnée (par exemple 5 ans) où un patient semblait en rémission. Dans cet article, nous avons créé un modèle d'évaluation pronostique multifactorielle pour tenter de répondre à ces 2 questions.Des tables montrant les probabilités de récidive et de décès par mélanome, calculées à partir de sous groupes différents, peuvent aider à déterminer le pronostic. Ce modèle repose sur une banque de données de 4568 patients atteints de mélanome non disséminé. Il s'agit d'une des plus grandes banques de données au monde contenant des informations cliniques, anatomopathologiques et sur l'évolution à long terme. L'épaisseur de la tumeur au moment du diagnostic était le facteur pronostic le plus important pour déterminer l'évolution. Le caractère ulcéré, le stade de Clark, la localisation de la lésion et le sexe avaient tous une importance pronostique, influant sur la survie globale liée à l'épaisseur de la tumeur. L'importance de l'épaisseur de la tumeur au moment du diagnostic était un facteur de récidive et mortalité même après un intervalle long de 2, 5 ou 10 ans. Le site de la tumeur et son caractère ulcéré étaient également des facteurs associés à un risque de récidive tumorale ou de décès après une rémission de 5 ans. L'influence de ces facteurs diminuait en cas de rémission plus prolongée.Les modèles permettant d'évaluer l'évolution du mélanome malin au moment du diagnostic et apreès un intervalle de rémission sont utiles au cours du traitement du mélanome. Ils doivent permettre d'identifier les patients à risque de récidive et de décès.

     

Cellular localization of the inhibitory action of relaxin against uterine spasm.

1. The aim of this study was to determine whether the site of action of relaxin as a relaxant of rat myometrium is at the cell membrane or at an intracellular-site. Therefore, the potency of relaxin was determined against spasms reliant predominantly upon either extracellular Ca2+ or intracellular Ca2+. Uterine spasms dependent upon extracellular Ca2+ were elicited by (i) oxytocin (0.2 nM) (ii) Bay K 8644 (1 microM) in 10 mM K(+)-rich PSS and (iii) KCl (80 mM). Uterine spasm dependent upon intracellular Ca2+ was elicited by oxytocin (20 nM) in the presence of nifedipine (500 nM). The effects of relaxin against these spasmogens were compared with those of levcromakalim, nifedipine and salbutamol. 2. Relaxin (0.2-6.3 nM), levcromakalim (25-800 nM), salbutamol (1-63 nM) and nifedipine (1-250 nM) caused concentration-dependent inhibition of the spasm evoked by oxytocin (0.2 nM) and relaxin was the most potent relaxant. 3. Relaxin and nifedipine were slightly less potent against the spasm induced by Bay K 8644 (1 microM) than against spasm induced by oxytocin (0.2 nM) (15 fold and 13 fold respectively). Levcromakalim and salbutamol were equipotent against the spasm evoked by Bay K 8644 (1 microM) and that evoked by oxytocin (0.2 nM). 4. Relaxin induced only 47 +/- 7% inhibition of the KCl (80 mM)-evoked spasm at a concentration of 0.8 microM. Levcromakalim was much less potent (427 fold) against the spasm evoked by KCl (80 mM) than against the spasm evoked by oxytocin (0.2 nM). The potency of salbutamol against the spasm evoked by KCl (80 mM) was modestly reduced (14 fold) compared to that against the spasm evoked by oxytocin (0.2 nM). The potency of nifedipine against the KCl (80 mM)-evoked spasm was not different from that against the oxytocin (0.2 nM)-evoked spasm. 5. The potencies of relaxin and levcromakalim against the spasm evoked by oxytocin (20 nM) + nifedipine (500 nM) were greatly reduced (74 fold and 234 fold respectively) compared to their potencies against the spasm evoked by oxytocin (0.2 nM). The potency of salbutamol against these two spasmogens was not different. 6. Relaxin was much less potent against the spasm dependent upon intracellular Ca2+ (that induced by oxytocin (20 nM) + nifedipine (500 nM)) than against the spasms dependent upon extracellular Ca2+, those induced by oxytocin (0.2 nM) and Bay K 8644 (1 microM). In this regard, relaxin resembled levcromakalim and nifedipine rather than salbutamol. Therefore, the major site of action of relaxin appears to be located at the plasma membrane rather than at an intracellular level. The observation that relaxin was less effective against the KCl (80 mM)-induced spasm than against the oxytocin (0.2 nM)-evoked spasm may indicate that relaxin has a minor action involving K(+)-channel opening. 7. High concentrations of relaxin (up to 1 microM) induced significant inhibition of the spasm dependent upon intracellular Ca2+. Thus at high concentrations relaxin also appears to have an additional intracellular action.     

Role of Doppler ultrasound flowmetry in the diagnosis of breast lumps

One hundred and five patients with discrete breast lumps were examined with a 10 MHz Doppler ultrasonic flowmeter. Doppler flow signals were analysed on an Angioscan spectrum analyser. Recordings from the opposite normal breast were taken as controls and signals from the two sides compared. In 23 patients signals from the normal breast could not be recorded and therefore results of the remaining 82 patients are reported. These included 39 patients with carcinoma, 20 with fibroadenoma, 12 with cyclical nodularity and 11 with cysts. Malignant lumps exhibited significantly higher peak systolic (S) and minimum diastolic frequencies (D) in comparison to the control breast. Fibroadenoma also had a higher S and D than those of the opposite normal breast. Signals over cysts and cyclical nodularity showed no significant difference from the recordings over the control side. Despite significantly higher systolic and diastolic frequencies in the cancer group in comparison to benign lumps and normal breast, considerable overlap in the values was seen between cancer and other groups. Therefore the patterns on 10 MHz Doppler sonography are not sufficiently specific to discriminate benign from malignant breast lumps.     

Cardia: study design, recruitment, and some characteristics of the examined subjects

In 1984, a prospective cohort study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) was initiated to investigate life-style and other factors that influence, favorably and unfavorably, the evolution of coronary heart disease risk factors during young adulthood. After a year of planning and protocol development, 5,116 black and white women and men, age 18-30 years, were recruited and examined in four urban areas: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota, and Oakland, California. The initial examination included carefully standardized measurements of major risk factors as well as assessments of psychosocial, dietary, and exercise-related characteristics that might influence them, or that might be independent risk factors. This report presents the recruitment and examination methods as well as the mean levels of blood pressure, total plasma cholesterol, height, weight and body mass index, and the prevalence of cigarette smoking by age, sex, race and educational level. Compared to recent national samples, smoking is less prevalent in CARDIA participants, and weight tends to be greater. Cholesterol levels are representative and somewhat lower blood pressures in CARDIA are probably, at least in part, due to differences in measurement methods. Especially noteworthy among several differences in risk factor levels by demographic subgroup, were a higher body mass index among black than white women and much higher prevalence of cigarette smoking among persons with no more than a high school education than among those with more education.     

The effect of corona discharge on Der p 1

BACKGROUND: Reduction of house dust mite allergens in the domestic environment can play an important part in reducing sensitization and in the amelioration of symptoms in atopic individuals. Chemical and physical methods have been tried with varied levels of success. The present paper presents a novel electrostatic way of destroying Der p 1, the major mite allergen. OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of negative Trichel, negative continuous glow, positive pulse and positive continuous glow corona in destroying Der p 1. To determine whether ozone has any effect on the integrity of Der p 1 in the experimental conditions present. METHODS: A simple point-to-plane apparatus was used to irradiate samples of Der p 1 for periods of 1, 15, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180, 240 and 300 min. Controls were exposed to the atmosphere with no corona products present for the equivalent time. The effect of the corona by-product ozone was investigated alone by exposing samples of Der p 1 to molecular ozone for 60 min. Der p 1 concentration was quantified by two-site monoclonal antibody ELISA. RESULTS: High current negative glow resulted in a 67.37% reduction in Der p 1 concentration after 300 min compared with a 50.5% reduction from a low current Trichel regime. High current positive glow corona gave a reduction of 25.22% while a low current positive pulse corona caused a 13.72% reduction after 300 min. All these reductions were statistically significant (P < 0.05) compared with unexposed controls. Negative corona always gave greater percentage reductions in Der p 1 concentration for each time exposure investigated. The pattern of percentage reduction follows an exponential rise to maximum relationship in respect to time. Samples of Der p 1 were not affected by exposure to molecular ozone. CONCLUSION: These data indicate corona products to be a powerful new method of destroying Der p 1 allergen that is not dependent on the presence of the oxidizing corona product ozone.     

What methods do stakeholders prefer for feeding back performance data: a qualitative study in palliative care.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the opinions of stakeholders (service commissioners and providers) on how performance data should be presented, in order to develop effective feedback methods to facilitate the use of these data in decision making. DESIGN: A qualitative analysis of semi-structured face-to-face and telephone interviews. League tables and fictional box plots were presented as an illustrative guide. The themes covered in the interviews were the effectiveness of these two feedback formats, their positive and negative characteristics, and ideas for new and improved feedback mechanisms. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-six stakeholders representing a range of clinical and non-clinical roles within palliative care and the wider health care system across a variety of statutory and non-statutory organizations from London and the West Midlands. RESULTS: Box plots were received more positively than league tables, and qualitative information was considered more appropriate than pictorial feedback. Conventional methods such as league tables and box plots were judged to lack essential information on which important decisions could be based, such as additional contextual information and the methodological assumptions of the instrument. Both feedback methods were considered useful as an impetus to further discussion. There was a consensus that feedback should be constructive and able to be adapted to the organizational realities in which UK health services function. CONCLUSION: Qualitative research was viewed as the right evidence for gaining an understanding of the quality of end of life care. Stakeholders highlighted the importance of the lay perspective, which requires approaches that illuminate the subjective meanings of patient experience.     

Osteocalcin 24-hour profiles during normal pregnancy.

The interpretation of previous data on osteocalcin during pregnancy has been complicated by the fact that serum levels, at least in nonpregnant women, display a significant circadian variation. In the present study, serum concentrations of osteocalcin were recorded for 24 h in 12 individual women. In 4 nonpregnant women, there were striking diurnal fluctuations during the sampling period, with values ranging from 0.5 to 4.0 ng/ml. One woman who was investigated in the 11th week of pregnancy showed similar fluctuations in osteocalcin concentrations whereas in the 15th and 17th week values were much lower with minor fluctuations. In 4 women investigated during late pregnancy (weeks 34-38), osteocalcin serum levels were extremely low (range 0.2-0.4 ng/ml), often below the detection limit of the assay, and there was no diurnal variation. Also, in 1 lactating woman, osteocalcin serum levels were low (0.3-0.8 ng/ml) and stable. Low osteocalcin values during pregnancy may indicate a reduced bone turnover possibly mediated via an altered estrogen and growth hormone secretion.     

Electroencephalography in acute head injury

The established uses of standard and computerized EEG in acute head injury are outlined. Emphasis is placed on EEG correlation with level of consciousness, rostrocaudal deterioration, brainstem lesions, and prognosis. The utility of the standard EEG in seizures and toxic metabolic states accompanying severe head injury is also discussed.     

The strength of surgical repairs of the rotator cuff. A biomechanical study on cadavers.

Using 26 cadaver shoulders, we produced a standard defect in the supraspinatus tendon and performed one of three types of repair. Their strength was found by testing in tension the force required to produce a gap of 3 mm, then 6 mm, and finally total disruption of the repair. The use of a polyethylene patch to spread the forces over the lateral bone surface and of extra sutures to grasp the tendon end raised by 2.6 times the load at which a 3 mm gap in the repair occurred and by 1.7 times the load to failure.     

Evoked potentials in head injury and states of increased intracranial pressure

Recent clinical studies have addressed the utility of sensory evoked potentials (auditory, somatosensory, and visual) in head injury. The clinical significance of evoked potentials in head trauma, states of increased intracranial pressure, and post-traumatic syndrome is discussed. Emphasis is placed on up-to-date studies discussing evoked potential correlation with clinical findings, lesion localization, intracranial pressure, brain herniation, and prognosis.