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We investigated the natural history of atopic dermatitis (AD) in a population-based birth cohort and assessed whether children at risk of visible eczema at 5 years of age can be identified from total immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels measured at 8, 12 and 18 months. AD data collected included a whole body examination for visible eczema at 49 months (4 years) and 61 months (5 years) of age and parent completed questionnaire data throughout their early lives. Children were divided into four groups based on their natural history of early AD: persistent (AD at 1, 6, 18, 30 and 42 months, n  = 34), intermittent early onset (before 18  months of age, n  = 495), intermittent late onset (18–42 months of age, n  = 273) and unaffected ( n  = 429). Visible eczema at 5 years of age was present in 12.2% (117/957) (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.1–14.3%) of the children. Levels of total IgE at 8, 12 and 18 months of age were associated with early onset of AD, but not with AD of later onset. For all four natural history groups, the geometric mean total IgE at 12 months was higher in those who subsequently had visible eczema than those who did not. However, the degree of overlap was such that total IgE at 12 months of age was a poor predictor of eczema at age five. A cutoff point of 78 kU/l had the highest positive predictive value for visible eczema at 5 years of age of 28.6%, with a sensitivity of 12% and specificity of 95%.  相似文献   
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Background   No data on incidence, management, or natural history of chyle leaks following pancreatic resection have been published. We sought to identify possible risk factors associated with chyle leaks following pancreatic resection, as well as determine the natural history of this rare complication. Methods   Between 1993 and 2008, 3,532 patients underwent pancreatic resection at a single institution. Data on demographics, operative details, primary tumor status, and chyle leak were collected. To identify risk factors associated with chyle leak, a matched 3:1 paired analysis was performed. Results   Of 3,532 patients undergoing pancreatic resection, 47 (1.3%) developed a chyle leak (n = 34, contained chyle leak versus n = 13, diffuse chylous ascites). Chyle leak was identified at median 5 days following surgery. Median drain triglyceride levels were 592 ng/dl. After matching on tumor size, disease etiology, and resection type, the number of lymph nodes harvested and history of concomitant vascular resection predicted higher risk of chyle leak (both P < 0.05). Total parenteral nutrition (TPN) was required in more patients with chylous ascites (92.3%) than those with chyle leaks (44.1%) (P = 0.003). The median time to resolution was shorter for contained chyle leaks (13 days) versus chylous ascites (36 days) (P < 0.001). Patients with chylous ascites tended to have shorter overall survival (3-year, 18.8%) versus patients with no chyle leak (3-year, 46.9%) (P = 0.12). In contrast, patients with a contained chyle leak had a similar survival as patients with no chyle leak (3-year, 53.4% versus 46.9%, respectively) (P = 0.32). Conclusion   Chyle leak was a rare (1.3%) complication following pancreatic resection that was associated with number of lymph nodes harvested and concomitant vascular resection. In general, chyle leaks were successfully managed with TPN with no adverse impact on outcome. Patients with chylous ascites, however, had a more protracted clinical course and tended to have a worse long-term survival. Presented at the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, 49th Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, May 18th, 2008 Support: Dr. Pawlik is supported by Grant Number 1KL2RR025006-01 from the National Center for Research Resources (NCRR), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research. The contents of this publication are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official view of NCRR or NIH.  相似文献   
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