Predicting length of stay in thermal burns: A systematic review of prognostic factors

Background

Continued improvement in all aspects of the management of thermal injury has resulted in marked improvements in the traditionally reported outcome of mortality. This has resulted in the search for alternative parameters that can be monitored to indicate the performance of burn services. Length of stay (LOS) in hospitalised burn patients has long been considered reflective of injury-associated morbidity, cost and the quality of care, which can be monitored consistently across services.

Aim

We undertook a systematic review of published literature pertaining to LOS prognostication in thermal burns to identify the relevant factors, quantify the risk associated with these factors and identify predictive prognostic models.

Methods

Electronic searches were performed on MEDLINE, CINHAL, EMBASE, Web of Science^®, the Cochrane collection and a general web search was performed using Google^®. The searches were complemented by a manual search of the contents of leading burns journals. Quality of the studies included in the review was evaluated against published standards for prognostic studies.

Results

Fourteen studies were included in the review after meeting the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Age and %TBSA were the strongest predictors of LOS in these studies. Other significant predictors included % full thickness burn, female gender, inhalation injury, surgery including escharotomy and the depth of burn. Nine studies reported multivariate models for predicting LOS in patients sustaining thermal injury. None of these models were validated and the goodness-of-fit statistic (R²) ranged from 0.15 to 0.75.

Conclusion

This review has demonstrated that %TBSA and age are the best predictors of LOS in published literature. Current prognostic models do not explain a significant proportion of variation in LOS.     

Extensive Cytoreductive Surgery for Appendiceal Carcinomatosis: Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival

Background

Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion (HIPEC) are frequently used to treat appendiceal carcinomatosis. Some patients require multivisceral resection because of the volume of disease. It is unclear whether extent of CRS impacts survival in appendiceal carcinomatosis.

Methods

We analyzed 282 patients undergoing attempted CRS/HIPEC for appendiceal carcinomatosis. Patients were defined as having undergone Extensive CRS (n = 60) if they had >3 organ resections or >2 anastomoses; a subgroup of Extreme CRS patients (n = 10) had ≥5 organ resections and ≥3 anastomoses. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and multivariate Cox-regression models were used to identify prognostic factors affecting outcomes.

Results

Relative to the comparison group, patients undergoing Extensive CRS had a higher median peritoneal carcinomatosis index, operative duration, blood loss, and length of stay. No difference in completeness of cytoreduction, severe morbidity, or 60-day mortality was evident. Subgroup analysis of 10 patients undergoing extreme CRS likewise revealed no increase in severe morbidity or mortality. Median progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 23.5 and 74 months in the comparison group; 18.5 (p = 0.086) and 51 (p = 0.85) months in the Extensive CRS group; and 40 months and not reached in the Extreme CRS subgroup. In a multivariable analysis, extent of CRS was not independently associated with PFS or OS.

Conclusions

Extensive CRS is associated with greater OR time, blood loss, and length of stay, but is not associated with higher morbidity, mortality, or inferior oncologic outcomes in patients with appendiceal carcinomatosis.     

Natural History After Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis: a Large US Tertiary Care Experience

Background

Most studies of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) focus on short-term outcomes. We evaluated long-term survival and outcomes following ANP.

Methods

Patients treated for ANP at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center from 2001 to 2008 were studied. Data on presentation and course during initial hospitalization and follow-up (median 34 months) was extracted.

Results

Mean age of patients (n?=?167) was 53?±?16 years; 70 % were male, 94 % white, 71 % transfers, 52 % biliary etiology, and 78 % had first-attack of acute pancreatitis. Majority had severe disease with high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score (median 11), length of stay (median 26 days), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (87 %), presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (90 %), persistent organ failure (60 %), and infected necrosis (50 %). Intervention was needed in 74 %. Eighteen (10.8 %) patients died during index hospitalization, 9 (5.4 %) during the first year, and 13 (7.8 %) after 1 year. Median survival was significantly shorter when compared with age- and sex-matched US general population (9.1 vs. 26.1 years, p?<?0.001). Increasing age (HR 1.05), persistent organ failure (HR 4.5), and >50 % necrosis (HR 3.8) were independent predictors of death at 1 year. In eligible patients, new-onset diabetes, oral pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy, and disability were noted in 45, 25, and 53 %, respectively.

Conclusion

ANP significantly impacts long-term survival. A high proportion of patients develop functional derangement and disability following ANP.