Increasing the efficiency of Monte Carlo cohort simulations with variance reduction techniques.

The authors discuss techniques for Monte Carlo (MC) cohort simulations that reduce the number of simulation replications required to achieve a given degree of precision for various output measures. Known as variance reduction techniques, they are often used in industrial engineering and operations research models, but they are seldom used in medical models. However, most MC cohort simulations are well suited to the implementation of these techniques. The authors discuss the cost of implementation versus the benefit of reduced replications.     

Outcomes of low-vision services using optometric and multidisciplinary approaches: a non-randomized comparison

Consecutive patients (n = 215) who were referred to optometric (55%) or multidisciplinary (45%) low-vision services and above 50 years of age were recruited from four hospitals in the Netherlands. They completed two vision-related quality of life questionnaires, the Vision Quality of Life Core Measure (VCM1) and the Low Vision Quality of Life Questionnaire (LVQOL), before their first visit with low-vision services and 1 year later. At follow-up, patients referred to multidisciplinary low-vision services had lower scores on the mobility subscale of the LVQOL than patients referred to optometric low-vision services [5.3 points; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2-10.5]. Paired sample t-tests for the two groups of patients taken together show improvement for the VCM1 (3.1 points; 95% CI: 0.6-5.6) and deterioration for the basic aspects of vision (3.5 points; 95% CI: 1.1-5.9) and the mobility (6.6 points; 95% CI: 3.7-9.5) subscales of the LVQOL. In conclusion, people referred to optometric services showed less deterioration in mobility than those referred to multidisciplinary services. No differences were observed for any of the other subscales of the LVQOL and the VCM1. Future research in this field should include randomized controlled designs comparing low-vision services with no treatment or placebo.     

Periodontal status of orthodontic patients and the relationship between dental aesthetic index and community periodontal index of treatment need

This prospective clinic-based study evaluated the pretreatment periodontal status of the orthodontic patients seen at the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria, and assessed the relationship between dental aesthetic index (DAI) scores and periodontal status according to community periodontal index of treatment needs (CPITN) scores. One hundred forty five patients-70 (48.3%) males and 75 (51.7%) females from 6 to 45 years (mean 15.8 +/- 7.5)-were seen. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines were followed in the examination and reporting of the periodontal status, and DAI scores were assessed based on WHO guidelines. The chi-square test was used to determine the association between the DAI and the CPITN scores. Most patients were in the 6-15 (55.9%) or 16-25 (35.9%) age groups. Based on the WHO preferred cumulative calculations of treatment need (TN), 35.2% of the patients had TN 0, 64.9% had TN 1, 24.9% had TN 2, and only 0.7% had TN 3. The relationship between DAI scores and periodontal treatment needs was not statistically significant (P >.05). Although many patients were yet to attain the WHO goal of no more than 1 sextant affected by bleeding or calculus at the age of 15, over one third had satisfactory periodontal health.     

Islet Xenotransplantation: Are We Really Ready for Clinical Trials?

Four clinical trials of porcine islet transplantation have been reported, and there are verbal reports that clinical trials on much larger scales are continuing in centers in China and Russia. The four reported trials are briefly reviewed and, in the light of the present status of experimental islet xenotransplantation, consideration is given to whether such trials are currently justified. The Ethics Committee of the International Xenotransplantation Association has (1) emphasized the need for encouraging studies in non-human primates before clinical trials should be undertaken, (2) mandatory monitoring for the transfer of porcine microorganisms, and (3) careful regulation and oversight by recognized bodies. Other aspects of the topic, such as the need for informed consent, are briefly discussed. We conclude that, at the present time, more data documenting convincing efficacy, focused on clinically applicable immunosuppressive regimens, are needed to justify the initiation of closely monitored clinical trials. A clinical trial may then be justified even though the potential risk to the patients, and possibly for society, will not be zero.     

Pathological structure of the kidney from adult mice with mosaic mutation

Summary: The mosaic (Atp7a ^mo-ms ) is an X-linked, lethal mutation in mice. In mosaic mutant males, many clinical features characteristic of defective copper metabolism have been observed and they die at the age of 15 days, exhibiting strongsimilarities to the brindled and macular mutants. About 4% of the mutant males live to sexual maturity and some of them are fertile. In this paper, alterationsin the structure of the kidney from adult mutants are described. Owing to an inherited defect of efflux, copper is accumulated in the kidney of the mutants up to a toxic level and this leads to severe damage of the renal cortex. Pathological changes in the kidney mostly affected the structure of the renal corpuscle and renaltubules.     

Notification of rheumatic fever in South Africa -- evidence for underreporting by health care professionals and administrators.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether under-reporting of rheumatic fever occurs at hospital, municipal, provincial and national levels of the South African health system. BACKGROUND: Information on the incidence of rheumatic fever (RF) and the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is required for the prevention of valvular heart disease in developing countries. In South Africa, RF was made a notifiable condition in 1989. It has recently been suggested that the reporting of RF cases may be incomplete, possibly because of underreporting by health care professionals and deficient administration of the disease notification system in South Africa. METHOD AND RESULTS: We assessed whether underreporting of RF cases occurs by comparing the numbers of RF cases reported per year at hospital, municipal, provincial and national levels from 1990 to 2004. There was a fall in the number of RF cases reported per year at national and provincial level over the 15 years of observation. A detailed analysis of the number of RF cases reported at hospital, municipal and provincial level for a 5-year period showed that more cases were diagnosed in one hospital (serving a smaller population) than were captured at municipal and provincial level (serving a larger population), suggesting underreporting by health care professionals. There were discrepancies in the number of cases reported at municipal, provincial and national level, suggesting poor administration of the notification system. CONCLUSION: There appears to be underreporting of RF cases by health care professionals, and poor administration of the RF notification system. Health care professionals need to be educated about the statutory requirement to notify all RF cases in South Africa. An effective national disease notification system is required.