The dental workforce in Kentucky: current status and future needs

Objectives: This study assessed the geographic distribution of dentists in Kentucky, determined socioeconomic correlates of practice location, estimated the future availability of dental providers, and made policy recommendations that could improve access to oral health care in Kentucky and other rural states. Methods: Dentists' addresses were mapped using a geographic information system. Poisson regression modeling and geospatial analyses were conducted using SAS v9.1 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and ArcGIS v9.2 (Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc., Redlands, CA, USA), respectively. Data on the number of dentists (n = 2,391) per county (n = 120) were used for the regression models. Explanatory variables included: per capita income, 2006 intercensal population estimates, percent adults with six or more teeth removed, percent population uninsured, physician‐to‐population ratios, and region type. A simulation model was used to project dentist‐to‐population ratios to the year 2016. Results: The dental workforce analysis revealed disparities in the distribution of dentists between rural, urban, and Appalachian Kentucky counties. Dentists were more likely to be found practicing in areas with higher income and higher physician‐to‐population ratios. Compounding this geographic maldistribution, our projections suggest that the number of dentists per unit population will decrease over time in the near future, likely widening this disparity in rural and underserved areas. Conclusions: These results show present and widening workforce disparities in rural and socioeconomically depressed counties in Kentucky. Understanding the geographic distribution of dentists and the socioeconomic correlates of their practice locations may inform workforce development and reimbursement policies for the goal of improving access to oral health care in these areas.