Reliability of Bayesian probability analysis for predicting coronary artery disease in a veterans hospital

To assess the accuracy of Bayesian probability analysis for the prediction of coronary artery disease, post-test probabilities were generated by the application of three Bayesian algorithms to the clinical and noninvasive test results of 199 patients undergoing angiography in a veterans' hospital. All assumed conditional independence but each used different pre-test and conditional probabilities. Two statistical approaches were employed: (1) Sorting of patients in ascending deciles of probability and comparing expected and observed probabilities in each decile. (2) Calculation of normally distributed reliability statistics which do not depend on probability subsets and the comparison of resulting probability distributions using these statistics. Both statistical approaches revealed that the Bayesian algorithms overestimated disease probability when it was high and underestimated it when low. Though all three algorithms were frequently incorrect, they differed significantly in their accuracies, suggesting that errors in Bayesian analysis are caused by factors other than the assumption of independence. The errors may be due to differences in sensitivity and specificity of tests applied in different institutions.     

The reliability of probability analysis in the prediction of coronary artery disease in two hospitals

To assess the accuracy of the Bayesian computer program CADENZA for the prediction of coronary artery disease, the authors examined the probabilities generated by the application of this program to the clinical and noninvasive test results of 303 patients in a private referral center and 199 patients in a veterans' hospital. These probabilities were compared with those produced by applying a six-variable discriminant function derived by logistic regression at the private referral center. Two statistical approaches were employed in evaluating the relative performances of the Bayesian program and the discriminant function. The first of these involved the sorting of patients in both test groups into ascending deciles of probability and comparing expected probability with observed angiographic disease prevalence in each decile. The second involved the calculation and comparison of a standardized reliability measure. The latter was significantly lower for the discriminant function both at the private hospital (0.200 for the discriminant function versus -17.5 +/- 1.96 for the Bayesian program) and at the veterans' hospital (-0.8 +/- 1.96 for the discriminant function versus -11.3 for Bayesian program). This suggests that the discriminant function is significantly superior to the Bayesian algorithm CADENZA for predicting coronary artery disease probabilities in subjects who have relatively high pretest disease probabilities.     

Androgen receptor YAC transgenic mice carrying CAG 45 alleles show trinucleotide repeat instability

X-linked spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy (SBMA) is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the first exon of the androgen receptor (AR) gene. Disease-associated alleles (37-66 CAGs) change in length when transmitted from parents to offspring, with a significantly greater tendency to shift size when inherited paternally. As transgenic mice carrying human AR cDNAs with 45 and 66 CAG repeats do not display repeat instability, we attempted to model trinucleotide repeat instability by generating transgenic mice with yeast artificial chromosomes (YACs) carrying AR CAG repeat expansions in their genomic context. Studies of independent lines of AR YAC transgenic mice with CAG 45 alleles reveal intergenerational instability at an overall rate of approximately 10%. We also find that the 45 CAG repeat tracts are significantly more unstable with maternal transmission and as the transmitting mother ages. Of all the CAG/CTG repeat transgenic mice produced to date the AR YAC CAG 45 mice are unstable with the smallest trinucleotide repeat mutations, suggesting that the length threshold for repeat instability in the mouse may be lowered by including the appropriate flanking human DNA sequences. By sequence-tagged site content analysis and long range mapping we determined that one unstable transgenic line has integrated an approximately 70 kb segment of the AR locus due to fragmentation of the AR YAC. Identification of the cis - acting elements that permit CAG tract instability and the trans -acting factors that modulate repeat instability in the AR YAC CAG 45 mice may provide insights into the molecular basis of trinucleotide repeat instability in humans.      

Mononucleosis syndrome and coincidental human herpesvirus-7 and Epstein-Barr virus infection

Two girls (a 5 year old and a 21 month old) experiencing mononucleosis syndrome with coincidental human herpesvirus (HHV)-7 and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infections are described. One patient had primary HHV-7 infection and reactivated EBV infection. The other had primary HHV-7 and EBV infections. These cases indicated that HHV-7 is capable of inducing infectious mononucleosis-like illness. Multiple herpesvirus infection in one of the patients also suggests that interaction among herpesviruses can occur in vivo. The consequence of this interaction may have clinical implications.     

The Third World Integrative Medicine Congress Abstracts (Excerption)

The 3rd World Integrative Medicine Congress (3rd WIMCO) was held on September 22-24, 2007 in Guangzhou, China. The Congress has showed the academic achievements of integrative medicine in the recent five years covering a wide range of fields, such as basic and experimental research; clinical research; theory, education and management research; new drug research and development; and application of evidence-based medicine.     

Decreased expression of phospholipase C-beta 2 isozyme in human platelets with impaired function

Platelets from a patient with a mild inherited bleeding disorder and abnormal platelet aggregation and secretion show reduced generation of inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate, mobilization of intracellular Ca2+, and phosphorylation of pleckstrin in response to several G protein mediated agonists, suggesting a possible defect at the level of phospholipase C (PLC) activation (see accompanying report). A procedure was developed that allows quantitation of platelet PLC isozymes. After fractionation of platelet extracts by high-performance liquid chromatography, 7 out of 10 known PLC isoforms were detected by immunoblot analysis. The amount of these isoforms in normal platelets decreased in the order PLC- gamma 2 > PLC-beta 2 > PLC-beta 3 > PLC-beta 1 > PLC-gamma 1 > PLC- delta 1 > PLC-beta 4. Compared with normal platelets, platelets from the patient contained approximately one-third the amount of PLC-beta 2, whereas PLC-beta 4 was increased threefold. These results suggest that the impaired platelet function in the patient in response to multiple G protein mediated agonists is attributable to a deficiency of PLC-beta 2. They document for the first time a specific PLC isozyme deficiency in human platelets and provide an unique opportunity to understand the role of different PLC isozymes in normal platelet function.     

Possible effect of secretor locus on plasma concentration of factor VIII and von Willebrand factor

A significant fraction (30%) of the genetically determined variance in plasma concentration of the von Willebrand factor antigen (vWf:Ag) has been shown to be related to ABH determinants. Individuals with blood group O, who have the highest amounts of blood group H substance, have the lowest concentration of vWf:Ag. The Lewis substances, Le(a) and Le(b), are biochemically closely related to the ABH substances as both can be produced from the same precursor substance. We studied the effect of the presence of the Lewis antigens on the plasma concentration of vWf:Ag and factor VIII antigen (VIII:Ag) in 323 individuals of different ABO groups from a series of twins and in 58 blood donors of blood group O. Among persons belonging to blood group O, those with the Le(a) antigen had a higher concentration of both vWf:Ag and VIII:Ag than individuals lacking Le(a). Le(a+b-) people are nonsecretors and Le(a-b+) people are secretors of ABH substance. Thus, the lowest concentration of vWf:Ag and VIII:Ag was found in group O secretors. The effect is most likely due to an effect of the secretor locus. This finding may be of importance for the detection of carriers of hemophilia A and for the diagnosis of type I von Willebrand disease.