Retrospective Analysis Using Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation Offers Improvements in Efficiency of the Design of Volunteer Infection Studies for Antimalarial Drug Development

Volunteer infection studies using the induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) model have been shown to facilitate antimalarial drug development. Such studies have traditionally been undertaken in single‐dose cohorts, as many as necessary to obtain the dose‐response relationship. To enhance ethical and logistic aspects of such studies, and to reduce the number of cohorts needed to establish the dose‐response relationship, we undertook a retrospective in silico analysis of previously accrued data to improve study design. A pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) model was developed from initial fictive‐cohort data for OZ439 (mixing the data of the three single‐dose cohorts as: n = 2 on 100 mg, 2 on 200 mg, and 4 on 500 mg). A three‐compartment model described OZ439 PKs. Net growth of parasites was modeled using a Gompertz function and drug‐induced parasite death using a Hill function. Parameter estimates for the PK and PD models were comparable for the multidose single‐cohort vs. the pooled analysis of all cohorts. Simulations based on the multidose single‐cohort design described the complete data from the original IBSM study. The novel design allows for the ascertainment of the PK/PD relationship early in the study, providing a basis for rational dose selection for subsequent cohorts and studies.

Study Highlights

• WHAT IS THE CURRENT KNOWLEDGE ON THE TOPIC?

☑ Volunteer infection studies are routinely used in antimalarial drug development to generate early pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic data for compounds.

• WHAT QUESTION DID THIS STUDY ADDRESS?

☑ Can in silico analyses be used to suggest improvements to volunteer infection study designs?

• WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD TO OUR KNOWLEDGE?

☑ Multiple dose adaptive trial designs can potentially reduce the number of cohorts needed to establish the dose‐response relationship in volunteer infection studies.

• HOW MIGHT THIS CHANGE CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY OR TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE?

☑ Real time data analyses can be used to recommend doses for adaptive volunteer infection studies.

Volunteer infection studies using the induced blood stage malaria (IBSM) model have been recognized as a valuable system for defining the key pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) relationships for dose selection in antimalarial drug development. ¹ , ² , ³ , ⁴ , ⁵ , ⁶ , ⁷ In such studies, healthy volunteers are inoculated intravenously with a given quantity (with small variability) of Plasmodium‐infected red cells. Parasitemia is then followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction until a prespecified treatment threshold is reached when the test drug is administered. Parasite and drug concentrations are then measured. These studies are conducted prior to phase II dose‐response (D‐R) trials and can be included in an integrated first‐in‐human study protocol, or after completion of the first‐in‐human PK and safety study. IBSM studies have been typically designed as flexible multiple cohort studies where each volunteer of one cohort receives a single dose of the same amount of drug (“single dose per cohort”). ² , ³ , ⁴ , ⁵ After each cohort, a decision is made to stop or to add a cohort to test a lower or higher dose based on the response observed in the previous cohorts.For the multiple single‐dose‐per‐cohort design, the starting dose is typically selected based on safety and PK information from a phase I single ascending dose (SAD) study and, more recently, on preclinical data from a severe combined immunodeficient mouse model, with the dose selected on the basis of being best able to inform the D‐R relationship, rather than aiming for cure. This approach, where a single dose is tested in all subjects of the initial cohort, risks missing the dose likely to be most informative for defining the PK/PD relationship.An alternative approach is to spread a range of doses across a smaller number of subjects within the initial cohort and use PK/PD models developed based on data from this cohort to support dose selections of subsequent cohorts and studies. Using data from a previous study, ² we undertook an in silico investigation of such an adaptive study design, aiming to reduce the number of subjects exposed to inefficacious doses, and to establish a D‐R relationship. This multiple‐dose‐groups‐per‐cohort design, referred to as the “2‐2‐4” design, is contrasted with the already implemented study design depicted in Figure  1 .Open in a separate windowFigure 1Comparison of standard and adaptive designs of IBSM studies. A/B/C, dose levels to be selected during the progress of the study based on pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic results of the initial cohort; CHMI, controlled human malaria infection; D‐R, dose‐response; IBSM, induced blood stage malaria infection; n, number of subjects at each dose.The objectives of this retrospective analysis were to: (i) compare PK/PD parameter estimates from the initial cohort of the 2‐2‐4 study design with the prior results from the data of the full study and (ii) propose a preliminary workflow to establish D‐R early in an IBSM study, and use modeling and simulation (M&S) to support dose selections for subsequent cohorts and later phase clinical trials.     

Death rates at specific life stages mold the sex gap in life expectancy

Why do women live longer than men? Here, we mine rich lodes of demographic data to reveal that lower female mortality at particular ages is decisive—and that the important ages changed around 1950. Earlier, excess mortality among baby boys was crucial; afterward, the gap largely resulted from elevated mortality among men 60+. Young males bear modest responsibility for the sex gap in life expectancy: Depending on the country and time, their mortality accounts for less than a quarter and often less than a 10th of the gap. Understanding the impact on life expectancy of differences between male and female risks of death by age, over time, and across populations yields insights for research on how the lives of men and women differ.

Between ages 15 and 40, death rates for men are usually two or three times higher than death rates for women. This disparity has fueled widespread interest in the ratio of male to female death rates over the life course and in why it is exceptionally high for younger adults (1–6). Between ages 15 and 40, however, numbers of deaths are relatively low, so the high ratio of male to female death rates has a modest impact on the gap between female and male life expectancies. The sex difference in life expectancy hinges on differences in mortality risks at the ages when deaths are relatively common (7). Up through the early decades of the 20th century, these ages were at both extremes of life, infancy and old age. Afterward, death mostly struck after age 60. Here, we investigate variation across populations, over time, and over the life course in absolute and relative differences in mortality for men and women. We discuss what insights can be gained by scrutinizing relative risks compared to what can be learned by analyzing absolute risks.     

Flash Continuous Glucose Monitoring: A Summary Review of Recent Real-World Evidence

Optimizing glycemic control remains a shared challenge for clinicians and their patients with diabetes. Flash continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides immediate information about an individual’s current and projected glucose level, allowing users to respond promptly to mitigate or prevent pending hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia. Large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the glycemic benefits of flash CGM use in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. However, whereas RCTs are mostly focused on the efficacy of this technology in defined circumstances, real-world studies can assess its effectiveness in wider clinical settings. This review assesses the most recent real-world studies demonstrating the effectiveness of flash CGM use to improve clinical outcomes and health care resource utilization in populations with diabetes.

During the past 5 years, increasing numbers of people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes have integrated continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) into their diabetes self-management regimens. Unlike traditional blood glucose meters, CGM systems provide immediate information about the concentration and the direction and rate of change of interstitial glucose. This information enables patients to intervene promptly to prevent or reduce acute hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia.Flash CGM is among the most recent CGM technologies. Currently, the FreeStyle Libre 14-day system (Abbott Diabetes Care) and FreeStyle Libre 2 are the only flash CGM systems available, and these systems are being adopted rapidly. Large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have confirmed the glycemic benefits of flash CGM use in people with type 1 diabetes (1,2) and those with type 2 diabetes (3–6). However, because RCTs are mostly focused on measures of efficacy in defined circumstances, real-world studies can usefully assess the effectiveness of flash CGM in wider clinical settings.Although adoption of flash CGM continues to expand within endocrinology and diabetes specialty practices, primary care providers may be less familiar with this technology and how it can benefit patients with diabetes. This review assesses recent real-world studies demonstrating the impact of flash CGM use on clinical outcomes and health care resource utilization in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes populations.     

The Impact of Human Papillomavirus Infection on Skin Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

This study investigated the correlation between a history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and skin cancer risk.

Materials and Methods

The study cohort comprised 26,919 patients with newly diagnosed HPV infection between 2000 and 2012; with the use of computer-generated numbers, patients without previous HPV infection were randomly selected as the comparison cohort. The patients in the HPV infection cohort were matched to comparison individuals at a 1:4 ratio by demographic characteristics and comorbidities. All study individuals were followed up until they developed skin cancer, withdrew from the National Health Insurance program, were lost to follow-up, or until the end of 2013. The primary outcome was subsequent skin cancer development. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to analyze the risk of skin cancer with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between the HPV and control cohort.

Results

The adjusted HR of skin cancer for patients with HPV relative to controls was 2.45 after adjusting sex, age and comorbidities. (95% CI, 1.44–4.18, p < .01). The subgroup analysis indicated that a patient with HPV infection had a significantly greater risk of skin cancer if they were aged >40 years. Notably, a risk of skin cancer was found in the group diagnosed with HPV within the first 5 years after the index date (adjusted HR, 3.12; with 95% CI, 1.58–5.54). Sensitivity analysis by propensity score, matching with balanced sex, age, and comorbidities, showed consistent results.

Conclusion

A history of HPV infection is associated with the development of subsequent skin cancer in Taiwanese subjects, and the risk wanes 5 years later.

Implications for Practice

In this Taiwan nationwide cohort study, there was a 2.45-fold increased risk of developing new-onset skin cancers for patients with incident human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, compared with the matched controls. Furthermore, the risk was noticeably significant among patients aged >40 years. A prominent risk of skin cancers was found in the group diagnosed with HPV within the first 5 years after the index date in this study. The results of this analysis may raise consensus on the effect of HPV infection on the risk of skin cancers. Clinicians are encouraged to implement prudently on the differential diagnosis of skin cancers and HPV prevention and treatment, especially in older patients.

     

Improving HIV medical care engagement by attending to status disclosure and social support

ABSTRACT

Expeditious linkage and consistent engagement in medical care is important for people with HIV’s (PWH) health. One theory on fostering linkage and engagement involves HIV status disclosure to mobilize social support. To assess disclosure and social support’s association with linkage and engagement, we conducted a qualitative study sampling black and Latino men who have sex with men (MSM of color) in the U.S. Participants' narratives presented mixed results. For instance, several participants who reported delaying, inconsistent access, or detachment from care also reported disclosing for support purposes, yet sporadic engagement suggests that their disclosure or any subsequent social support have not assisted. The findings contribute to the literature that questions disclosure and social support’s influence on care engagement, especially when decontextualized from circumstances and intentions. Our findings suggest the mechanics of disclosure and social support require planned implementation if intending to affect outcomes, especially among MSM of color. From the findings, we explore steps that may bolster interventions seeking to anchor medical care engagement.     

Transmissible vaccines whose dissemination rates vary through time,with applications to wildlife

Transmission is a potential property of live viral vaccines that remains largely unexploited but may lie within the realm of many engineering designs. While likely unacceptable for vaccines of humans, transmission may be highly desirable for vaccines of wildlife, both to protect natural populations and also to limit zoonotic transmissions into humans. Defying intuition, transmission alone does not guarantee that a vaccine will perform well: the benefit of transmission over no transmission depends on and increases with the basic reproductive number of the vaccine, $R_0$. The $R_0$ of an infectious agent in a homogeneous population is typically considered to be a fixed number, but some evidence suggests that dissemination of transmissible vaccines may change through time. One obvious possibility is that transmission will be greater from hosts directly vaccinated than from hosts who acquire the vaccine passively, but other types of change might also accrue. Whenever transmission changes over time, the $R_0$ estimated from directly vaccinated hosts will not reflect the vaccine’s long term impact. As there is no theory on the consequences of changing transmission rates for a vaccine, we derive conditions for a transmissible vaccine with varying transmission rates to protect a population from pathogen invasion. Being the first in the transmission chain, the $R_0$ from directly vaccinated hosts has a larger effect than those from later steps in the chain. This mathematical property reveals that a transmissible vaccine with low long term transmission may nonetheless realize a big impact if early transmission is high. Furthermore, there may be ways to artificially elevate early transmission, thereby achieving high herd immunity from transmission while ensuring that the vaccine will ultimately die out.     

The Hull Anterior Vitrectomy Simulation System (HAVSS): a validated novel simulation for training in the management of intra-operative vitreous loss

ObjectivesTo design and validate a feasible simulation to address an identified training gap in the management of intraoperative vitreous loss.MethodsOur simulation consists of a two-part non-toxic mixture that polymerises upon contact within a silicone training eye, to resemble the appearance of vitreous after staining with triamcinolone. This gel can be cut and aspirated with an anterior vitrectomy probe. Experienced consultant ophthalmic surgeons were invited to assess the simulation and anonymously complete validity questionnaires.ResultsSeven senior surgeons participated. Four (57%) strongly agreed and three (43%) agreed that the tissue behaved like vitreous. Six (86%) strongly agreed and one (14%) agreed that instrument handling was realistic. Three (43%) strongly agreed and four (57%) agreed that simulated triamcinolone staining was realistic. Four (57%) strongly agreed and three (43%) agreed that the simulation was visually convincing. Six (86%) strongly agreed and one (14%) agreed that this simulation is useful for training. No participants disagreed with any validity statements.ConclusionsThis novel simulation of anterior vitrectomy has good face and content validity, with unanimous agreement among experienced surgeons of its utility for training in the management of intraoperative vitreous loss.Subject terms: Education, Lens diseases     

Comparison of Patch Materials for Pulmonary Artery Reconstruction

Graphical abstract summarizing the overall results of our study comparing reintervention for a main or central branch pulmonary artery reconstruction site and various patch materials. Autologous pericardium was associate with the lowest reintervention and was free. Multivariable analysis demonstrated lack of superiority of homograft branch patch, which clearly has a much higher cost.

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