Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in the context of high cervical cancer incidence and low screening coverage

BackgroundEstonia has high cervical cancer incidence and low screening coverage. We modelled the impact of population-based bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent HPV vaccination alongside cervical cancer screening.MethodsA Markov cohort model of the natural history of HPV infection was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating a cohort of 12-year-old girls with bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent vaccine in two doses in a national, school-based vaccination programme. The model followed the natural progression of HPV infection into subsequent genital warts (GW); premalignant lesions (CIN 1–3); cervical, oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal and anal cancer. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 70%. A time horizon of 88 years (up to 100 years of age) was used to capture all lifetime vaccination costs and benefits. Costs and utilities were discounted using an annual discount rate of 5%.ResultsVaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside screening compared to screening alone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €14,007 (bivalent), €14,067 (quadrivalent) and €11,633 (nonavalent) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the base-case scenario and ranged between €5367–21,711, €5142–21,800 and €4563–18,142, respectively, in sensitivity analysis. The results were most sensitive to changes in discount rate, vaccination regimen, vaccine prices and cervical cancer screening coverage.ConclusionVaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside current cervical cancer screening can be considered a cost-effective intervention in Estonia. Adding HPV vaccination to the national immunisation schedule is expected to prevent a considerable number of HPV infections, genital warts, premalignant lesions, HPV related cancers and deaths. Although in our model ICERs varied slightly depending on the vaccine used, they generally fell within the same range. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination was found to be most dependent on vaccine cost and duration of vaccine immunity, but not on the type of vaccine used.     

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of a nine-valent gender-neutral HPV vaccination program in France

ObjectivesIn France, 9-valent HPV vaccination is recommended routinely for 11–14-years-old girls and as catch-up for 15–19-years-old girls. Recently, recommendation for gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) has been approved. The objectives of the study were to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of a 9-valent GNV compared with girls-only vaccination program (GOV).MethodsA published HPV disease transmission dynamic model accounting for herd protection effects with a 100-year time horizon was adapted and calibrated to French data. Epidemiological and economic outcomes included disease cases averted and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were measured in 2018 Euros (€). A coverage rate of 26.2% among girls and boys was assumed for the GNV program based on the current female coverage rate in France. The base case included genital warts, cervical, vulvar, vaginal, and anal cancers. Scenario analyses included all HPV-related diseases and considered higher vaccination coverage rate (60%). Deterministic sensitivity analyses on key inputs were performed.ResultsOver 100 years, GNV resulted in an additional reduction of 9,519 and 3,037 cervical cancer cases and deaths; 6,901 and 1,166 additional anal cancer cases and deaths; and a reduction of additional 1,284,077 genital warts compared with current GOV and an ICER of 24,763€/QALY. When including all HPV-related diseases, the ICER was 15,184€/QALY. At a higher coverage rate (60%), GNV would prevent 17,430 and 4,334 additional anogenital cancer cases and deaths and over two million genital warts compared with GOV with an ICER of 40,401€/QALY. Results were sensitive to a higher discount rate (6% versus 4%) and a shorter duration of protection (20 years versus lifetime).ConclusionsIn France, GNV has a significant impact in terms of public health benefits and may be considered cost-effective compared with GOV at low and high coverage rates.     

Model for assessing human papillomavirus vaccination strategies

We present a transmission dynamic model that can assess the epidemiologic consequences and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies of administering a prophylactic quadrivalent (types 6/11/16/18) human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in a setting of organized cervical cancer screening in the United States. Compared with current practice, vaccinating girls before the age of 12 years would reduce the incidence of genital warts (83%) and cervical cancer (78%) due to HPV 6/11/16/18. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of augmenting this strategy with a temporary catch-up program for 12- to 24-year-olds was US $4,666 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Relative to other commonly accepted healthcare programs, vaccinating girls and women appears cost-effective. Including men and boys in the program was the most effective strategy, reducing the incidence of genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical cancer by 97%, 91%, and 91%, respectively. The ICER of this strategy was $45,056 per QALY.     

How to screen for cervical cancer after HPV16/18 vaccination in The Netherlands

In The Netherlands, vaccination against HPV16/18 has been recommended for all 12-year-old girls. Because screening of vaccinated women remains important, we evaluated the model-based cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. We considered cytology and the HPV DNA test as primary screening instrument, varied the number of screening rounds from 7 to 4, and set the screening starting age at 30 and 35 years. Our model predicted reductions in cervical cancer mortality between 60 and 81% (from 199 deaths to 37–79) when adding screening to vaccination (assumptions for vaccination: 95% efficacy, 100% compliance, lifelong protection). Screening 5 times with HPV DNA (€11,133/QALY) or 7 times with cytology (€17,627/QALY) were scenarios with comparable costs and effects and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below the threshold in The Netherlands (€20,000 per QALY).     

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany

Background

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in addition to the current cervical cancer screening programme in Germany using a dynamic transmission model.

Methods

Based on a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics and the natural history of HPV infection and associated diseases (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts), we estimated the epidemiological and economic consequences of HPV vaccination with both the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines. In our base case analysis, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 12-year-old girls with a 3-dose schedule. In sensitivity analysis, we also evaluated the use of a 2-dose schedule and assessed the impact of vaccinating boys.

Results

From a health care payer perspective, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of a 3-dose schedule were €34,249 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the bivalent and €14,711 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. Inclusion of indirect costs decreased ICERs by up to 40%. When adopting a health care payer perspective, ICERs of a 2-dose approach decreased to €19,450 per QALY for the bivalent and to €3645 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. From a societal perspective, a 2-dose approach using the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-saving strategy while using the bivalent vaccine resulted in an ICER of €13,248 per QALY. Irrespective of the perspective adopted, additional vaccination of boys resulted in ICERs exceeding €50,000 per QALY, except for scenarios with low coverage (20%) in girls.

Conclusions

Our model results suggest that routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with three doses is likely to be cost-effective in Germany. Due to the additional impact on genital warts, the quadrivalent vaccine appeared to be more cost-effective than the bivalent vaccine. A 2-dose schedule of the quadrivalent vaccine might even lead to cost savings when adopting a societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness of additional vaccination of boys was highly dependent on the coverage in girls.

     

Cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of three HPV vaccination programmes for school-aged girls in New Zealand

Background

As with many high-income countries, vaccination coverage against human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is not high in New Zealand (NZ) at 47% in school-aged girls for three doses. We estimate the health gains, net-cost and cost-effectiveness of the currently implemented HPV national vaccination programme of vaccination dispersed across schools and primary care, and two alternatives: school-based only (assumed coverage as per Australia: 73%), and mandatory school-based vaccination but with opt-out permitted (coverage 93%). We also generate estimates by social group (sex, ethnic and deprivation group).

Methods

A Markov macro-simulation model was developed for 12-year-old girls and boys in 2011, with future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I–III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers (oropharyngeal, anal, vulvar cancer). In each state health sector costs, including additional health sector costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were accumulated.

Results

The current HPV vaccination programme has an estimated cost-effectiveness of NZ$18,800/QALY gained (about US$9700/QALY gained using the OECD's purchasing power parities; 95% UI: US$6900 to $33,700) compared to the status quo in NZ prior to 2008 (no vaccination, screening alone). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of an intensive school-based only programme of girls, compared to the current situation, was US$33,000/QALY gained. Mandatory vaccination appeared least cost-effective (ICER compared to school-based of US$117,000/QALY gained, but with wide 95% uncertainty limits from $56,000 to $220,000). All interventions generated more QALYs per 12-year-old for Māori (indigenous population) and people living in deprived areas (range 5–25% greater QALYs gained).

Interpretation

A more intensive school-only vaccination programme seems warranted. Reductions in vaccine price will greatly improve cost-effectiveness of all options, possibly making a law for mandatory vaccination optimal from a health sector perspective. All interventions could reduce ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in HPV-related disease.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine in France

OBJECTIVES: A vaccine to prevent diseases due to human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16, and 18 is now available in France. The objective of this study was to assess the health and economic impact in France of implementing a quadrivalent HPV vaccine alongside existing screening practices versus screening alone. METHODS: A Markov model of the natural history of HPV infection incorporating screening and vaccination, was adapted to the French context. A vaccine that would prevent 100 percent of HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18-associated diseases, with lifetime duration and 80 percent coverage, given to girls at age 14 in conjunction with current screening was compared with screening alone. Results were analyzed from both a direct healthcare cost perspective (DCP) and a third-party payer perspective (TPP). Indirect costs such as productivity loss were not taken into account in this analysis. RESULTS: The incremental cost per life-year gained from vaccination was euro12,429 (TPP) and euro20,455 (DCP). The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for the introduction of HPV vaccination alongside the French cervical cancer screening program was euro8,408 (TPP) and euro13,809 (DCP). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that cost-effectiveness was stable, but was most sensitive to the discount rate used for costs and benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the commonly accepted threshold of euro50,000 per QALY, these analyses support the fact that adding a quadrivalent HPV vaccine to the current screening program in France is a cost-effective strategy for reducing the burden of cervical cancer, precancerous lesions, and genital warts caused by HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18.     

Cost-effectiveness of screening smokers and ex-smokers for lung cancer in the Netherlands in different age groups

Objective

We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of screening smokers and ex-smokers for lung cancer in the Netherlands.

Methods

A Markov model was used to evaluate the health effects and costs of lung cancer screening from the healthcare perspective. The effects and costs of ten screening scenarios with different start and stop ages of screening were examined across a lifetime horizon in a cohort of 100,000 smokers and ex- smokers 50 years and older.

Results

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of screening smokers and ex-smokers aged 50–60 years, 50–70 years, and 50 years and older are below the cost-effectiveness threshold of € 20,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Screening 50–60-year-old smokers and ex-smokers was the most cost-effective scenario with an ICER of € 14,094 per QALY gained. However, screening smokers and ex-smokers 50 years and older yielded the highest QALYs and resulted in an ICER of € 16,594 per QALY, which is below the threshold of € 20,000 per QALY. All screening scenarios compared to no screening resulted in CERs between the € 14,000 and € 16,000 per QALY gained. The efficiency frontier showed that screening smokers and ex-smokers in the age groups 70 years and older, 60–70 years, 60 years and older are excluded by extended dominance by no screening, screening smokers and ex-smokers aged 50–60 years and 50–70 years.

Conclusion

This study showed that lung cancer screening is cost-effective in the Netherlands.

     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent and nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccines in Ethiopia

BackgroundIn Ethiopia, cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women of the reproductive age group. Since 2018, the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (4vHPV) vaccine targeting four HPV types (6/11/16/18) has been introduced in the national immunization program in Ethiopia. Currently, however, a nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine which provides broader protection against nine HPV types (?6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) is available for global use. Our study, therefore, aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 9vHPV vaccine compared to the current HPV vaccination program in Ethiopia.MethodA static Markov cohort model was used to simulate the progression of HPV infection to cervical cancer for a cohort of 12-years-old girls (N = 100,000) in Ethiopia. The model ran up to the age of 100 years, with a cycle length of 1 year. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore the robustness of the model and uncertainties around the parameters included in the model. Cost-effectiveness thresholds of one and three times gross domestic product (GDP) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained were considered.ResultsAt a price of US$ 6.9, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained for the 9vHPV vaccine was US$ 454 compared to the 4vHPV vaccine, which is less than one times GDP per capita of Ethiopia. The ICER was most sensitive to the change in the discount rate of QALYs. Compared to 4vHPV vaccine, for 9vHPV vaccine to remain very cost-effective and cost-effective, its price per dose should not exceed US$ 8.4 and US$ 15, respectively, at a threshold of one and three times GDP per capita.ConclusionCompared to the 4vHPV vaccine, the 9vHPV vaccine is a cost-effective option in Ethiopia, given that its price per dose does not exceed US$15.     

Incremental cost-effectiveness evaluation of vaccinating girls against cervical cancer pre- and post-sexual debut in Belgium

Background

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) to prevent cervical cancer (CC) primarily targets young girls before sexual debut and is cost-effective. We assessed whether vaccination with the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine added to screening remains cost-effective in females after sexual debut compared to screening alone in Belgium. The role of protection against non-HPV-16/18 was also investigated.

Methods

A published Markov cohort model was adapted to Belgium. The model replicated the natural history of HPV infection, the effects of screening, and vaccination. Vaccine efficacy (VE) included non-HPV-16/18 protection based on the PATRICIA clinical trial data. Pre- and post-HPV exposure VE were differentiated. Lifetime vaccine protection was assumed. Input data were obtained from literature review, national databases and a Delphi panel. Costing was from a healthcare payer perspective. Costs were discounted at 3% and effects at 1.5%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and the number of lesions prevented with vaccination from age 12 to 40 was evaluated. The specific effect of non-HPV-16/18 protection was investigated. Univariate sensitivity analysis was performed on key variables.

Results

The model estimated that vaccinating a cohort of 100,000 girls at age 12 would prevent 646 CC cases over a lifetime (102 non-HPV-16/18) with an ICER of €9171/QALY. Vaccinating at age 26 would prevent 340 CC cases (40 non-HPV-16/18) with an ICER of €17,348/QALY and vaccinating at age 40 would prevent 146 CC cases (17 non-HPV-16/18) with an ICER of €42,847/QALY. The ICER remained under the highly cost-effective threshold (1×GDP/capita) until age 33 years and under the cost-effective threshold (3×GDP/capita) beyond age 40.

Conclusion

Extending HPV vaccination to females post-sexual debut could lead to a substantial reduction in CC-related burden and would be cost-effective in Belgium.     

Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionHuman papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been introduced in many countries in South-Central Asia, including Afghanistan, despite the sub-region having the highest incidence rate of cervical cancer in Asia. This study estimates the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Afghanistan to inform national decision-making.MethodAn Excel-based static cohort model was used to estimate the lifetime costs and health outcomes of vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls in the year 2018 with the bivalent HPV vaccine, compared to no vaccination. We also explored a scenario with a catch-up campaign for girls aged 10–14 years. Input parameters were based on local sources, published literature, or assumptions when no data was available. The primary outcome measure was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, evaluated from both government and societal perspectives.ResultsVaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls against HPV in Afghanistan could avert 1718 cervical cancer cases, 125 hospitalizations, and 1612 deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$426 per DALY averted from the government perspective and US$400 per DALY averted from the societal perspective. The estimated annual cost of the HPV vaccination program (US$3,343,311) represents approximately 3.53% of the country′s total immunization budget for 2018 or 0.13% of total health expenditures.ConclusionIn Afghanistan, HPV vaccine introduction targeting a single cohort is potentially cost-effective (0.7 times the GDP per capita of $586) from both the government and societal perspective with additional health benefits generated by a catch-up campaign, depending on the government′s willingness to pay for the projected health outcomes.     

Age-Based Programs for Vaccination against HPV

Background:  The risk of infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) increases with age. Answering the question of which age groups are appropriate to target for catch-up vaccination with the newly licensed quadrivalent HPV vaccine (types 6/11/16/18) will be important for developing vaccine policy recommendations.
Objectives:  To assess the value of varying female HPV vaccination strategies by specific age groups of a catch-up program in the United States.
Methods:  The authors used previously published mathematical population dynamic model and cost-utility analysis to evaluate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative quadrivalent HPV (6/11/16/18) vaccination strategies. The model simulates heterosexual transmission of HPV infection and occurrence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), cervical cancer, and external genital warts in an age-structured population stratified by sex and sexual activity groups. The cost-utility analysis estimates the cost of vaccination, screening, diagnosis, and treatment of HPV diseases, and quality-adjusted survival.
Results:  Compared with the current screening practices, vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 24 years was the most effective strategy, reducing the number of HPV6/11/16/18-related genital warts, CIN grades 2 and 3, and cervical cancer cases among women in the next 25 years by 3,049,285, 1,399,935, and 30,021; respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this strategy when compared with vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 19 years was $10,986 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.
Conclusion:  Relative to other commonly accepted health-care programs, vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 24 years appears cost-effective.     

Impact of vaccinating boys and men against HPV in the United States

We assessed the public health impact and value of vaccinating boys and men with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in the United States. We used mathematical population models, accounting for both the direct and indirect protective effects of vaccination. Inputs for the models were obtained from public data sources, published literature, and analyses of clinical trial data. Compared with a program of vaccinating girls and women only, including boys and men 9–26 years of age would further decrease the cumulative mean number of genital wart cases, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 cases, cancer cases, and cancer deaths by 5,146,000, 708,000, 116,000, and 40,000, respectively, within 100 years. The mean cost-effectiveness ratio (2008 US $) of this strategy was $25,700 (range: 13,600–48,800) per QALY gained if vaccination protects against all HPV 6/11/16/18-associated diseases, and $69,000 (range: 37,700–152,300)/QALY if it only protects against diseases currently in the vaccine indication. Vaccinating boys and men age 9–26 against all HPV 6/11/16/18-associated diseases provides substantial public health benefits and is cost-effective at commonly cited thresholds.     

Cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV-vaccination in Sweden,accounting for herd-immunity and sexual behaviour

IntroductionThe aim was to assess cost-effectiveness of expanding the Swedish HPV-vaccination program to include preadolescent boys, by comparing health-effects and costs of HPV-related disease, with a sex-neutral vaccination program versus only vaccinating girls.MethodsWe used a dynamic compartmental model to simulate the burden of HPV16/18-related disease in Sweden, accounting for indirect effects of vaccination through herd-immunity. The model accounted for sexual behaviour, such as age preferences and men who have sex with men. The main outcome was number of individuals with HPV-related cancers (cervical, genital, anal and oropharyngeal cancer) and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Costs included in the analysis were those incurred when treating HPV-related cancer and CIN, production losses during sick-leave, and acquisition and administration of vaccine. Health effects were measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The time horizon was set to 100 years, and both effects and costs were discounted by 3% annually. Health effects and costs were accumulated over the time horizon and used to create an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.ResultsA sex-neutral vaccination program would reduce HPV-related cancer and CIN, both due to direct effects among vaccinated as well as through herd-immunity, further decreasing HPV-related cancer burden annually by around 60 cases among men and women respectively in steady-state. The cost per gained QALY was estimated to 40,000 euro. Applying the procurement price of 2017, sex-neutral vaccination was dominant.ConclusionIntroducing a sex-neutral HPV-vaccination program would be good value for money also in Sweden where there this 80% coverage in the current HPV-vaccination program for preadolescent girls. The cost-effectiveness of a sex-neutral program is highly dependent on the price of the vaccine, the lower the price the more favourable it is to also vaccinate boys.     

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of universal vaccination with Bexsero® to reduce meningococcal group B disease in Germany

Bexsero, a new vaccine against serogroup B meningococcal disease (MenB), was licensed in Europe in January 2013. In Germany, Bexsero is recommended for persons at increased risk of invasive meningococcal disease, but not for universal childhood vaccination. To support decision making we adapted the independently developed model for England to the German setting to predict the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of universal vaccination with Bexsero^® against MenB disease. We used both cohort and transmission dynamic mathematical models, the latter allowing for herd effects, to consider the impact of vaccination on individuals aged 0–99 years. Vaccination strategies included infant and adolescent vaccination, alone or in combination, and with one-off catch-up programmes. German specific data were used where possible from routine surveillance data and the literature. We assessed the impact of vaccination through cases averted and quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained and calculated costs per QALY gained. Assuming 65% vaccine uptake and 82% strain coverage, infant vaccination was estimated to prevent 15% (34) of MenB cases over the lifetime of one birth cohort. Including herd effects from vaccination increased the cases averted by infant vaccination to 22%, with an estimated 8461 infants requiring vaccination to prevent one case. In the short term the greatest health benefit is achieved through routine infant vaccination with large-scale catch-up, which could reduce cases by 24.9% after 5 years and 27.9% after 10 years. In the long term (20+ years) policies including routine adolescent vaccination are most favourable if herd effects are assumed. Under base case assumptions with a vaccine list price of €96.96 the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was >€500,000 per QALY for all considered strategies. Given the current very low incidence of MenB disease in Germany, universal vaccination with Bexsero^® would prevent only a small absolute number of cases, at a high overall cost.     

Cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Mexico: a transmission dynamic model-based evaluation

We examined the potential health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) 6/11/16/18 vaccination strategies in the Mexican population using a multi-HPV type dynamic transmission model. Assuming similar cervical screening practices, with or without vaccination, we examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies for 12 year-old females, with or without male vaccination, and temporary age 12-24 catch-up vaccination for females or both sexes. The most effective strategy therein was vaccination of 12-year-olds, plus a temporary 12-24-year-old catch-up program covering both sexes; whereby HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancer, high-grade cervical precancer, and genital wart incidence was reduced by 84-98% during year 50 following vaccine introduction. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the primary analyses ranged from approximately 3000 dollars (U.S.) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for female vaccination strategies to approximately 16000 dollars /QALY for adding male vaccination with catch-up.     

Determining the “Health Benefit Basket” of the Statutory Health Insurance scheme in Germany

We compared findings from recent studies modelling the cost-effectiveness of screening for cervical cancer using human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and alternative strategies. Data were standardized to facilitate comparison of costs per life year or costs per QALY gained in six studies. Absolute changes in costs, life years and QALYs for each strategy were normalized to a comparison with no screening. Costs were standardized to US$ in 2000 values. Most models assume screening starts at age 18 or 20 years. Assumed prevalence of HPV ranges from 10% for those aged 18 years to 20% for those aged 20–25 years and drops substantially after age 30. All except one model assume sensitivity to LSIL of 83% or higher. Two models distinguish the increasing specificity of HPV testing in older age groups (up to 95% for LSIL in women aged 55 years or older). All the models include consultation costs as well as screening and treatment costs, but costs for follow-up diagnosis and treatment vary considerably. Two models also include patient time costs. Despite these differences all strategies involving HPV testing have cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ratios in the range of $12,400–$16,600. Costs per life year vary more widely, the highest being $19,246 (annual screening with liquid cytology and HPV). However, excluding strategies using liquid cytology, the highest costs per life year for a strategy including HPV testing are under $14,000 (simultaneous conventional cytology and HPV every two years). The cost per life year for HPV testing alone triennially is lower than for Pap smear testing alone biennially. Costs per QALY are generally lower than costs per life year (given the reported modelling assumptions and settings). Even with inclusion of patient costs, no strategies involving HPV testing cost more than $16,600 per QALY. Adoption of the ACOG guidelines to include HPV testing with cytology as a screening option for women aged 30 years or older therefore appears to be cost-effective.     

Cost-effectiveness of increasing cervical cancer screening coverage in the Middle East: An example from Lebanon

BackgroundMost cervical cancer (CC) cases in Lebanon are detected at later stages and associated with high mortality. There is no national organized CC screening program so screening is opportunistic and limited to women who can pay out-of-pocket. Therefore, a small percentage of women receive repeated screenings while most are under-or never screened. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing screening coverage and extending intervals.MethodsWe used an individual-based Monte Carlo model simulating HPV and CC natural history and screening. We calibrated the model to epidemiological data from Lebanon, including CC incidence and HPV type distribution. We evaluated cytology and HPV DNA screening for women aged 25–65 years, varying coverage from 20 to 70% and frequency from 1 to 5 years.ResultsAt 20% coverage, annual cytologic screening reduced lifetime CC risk by 14% and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of I$80,670/year of life saved (YLS), far exceeding Lebanon’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (I$17,460), a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold. By comparison, increasing cytologic screening coverage to 50% and extending screening intervals to 3 and 5 years provided greater CC reduction (26.1% and 21.4, respectively) at lower costs compared to 20% coverage with annual screening. Screening every 5 years with HPV DNA testing at 50% coverage provided greater CC reductions than cytology at the same frequency (23.4%) and was cost-effective assuming a cost of I$18 per HPV test administered (I$12,210/YLS); HPV DNA testing every 4 years at 50% coverage was also cost-effective at the same cost per test (I$16,340). Increasing coverage of annual cytology was not found to be cost-effective.ConclusionCurrent practice of repeated cytology in a small percentage of women is inefficient. Increasing coverage to 50% with extended screening intervals provides greater health benefits at a reasonable cost and can more equitably distribute health gains. Novel HPV DNA strategies offer greater CC reductions and may be more cost-effective than cytology.     

Impact of including boys in the national school-based human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Singapore: A modelling-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Globally, gender-neutral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes are gaining traction. Although cervical cancer remains the most prevalent, other HPV-related cancers are increasingly recognised as important, especially among men who have sex with men. We assessed if including adolescent boys in Singapore’s school-based HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective from the healthcare perspective.We adapted a World Health Organization-supported model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics, and modelled the cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with vaccinating 13-year-olds with the HPV vaccine. Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from local sources and adjusted based on the expected direct and indirect vaccine protection for various population subgroups at an 80 % vaccine coverage.Moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with a bivalent or nonavalent vaccine could avert 30 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 20–44) and 34 (95 % UI: 24–49) HPV-related cancers per birth cohort, respectively. At a 3 % discount rate, a gender-neutral vaccination programme is not cost-effective. However, with a 1.5 % discount rate, which puts more value on long-term health gains from vaccination, moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with the bivalent vaccine is likely cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of SGD$19 007 (95 % UI: 10 164–30 633) per QALY gained.The findings suggest the need to engage experts to examine, in detail, the cost-effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccination programmes in Singapore. Issues of drug licensing, feasibility, gender equity, global vaccine supplies, and the global trend towards disease elimination/eradication should also be considered. This model provides a simplified method for resource-strapped countries to gain a preliminary estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a gender-neutral HPV vaccination programme before investing resources for further research.     

Evaluating human papillomavirus vaccination programs

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been implicated as the primary etiologic agent of cervical cancer. Potential vaccines against high-risk HPV types are in clinical trials. We evaluated vaccination programs with a vaccine against HPV-16 and HPV-18. We developed disease transmission models that estimated HPV prevalence and infection rates for the population overall, by age group, by level of sexual activity within each age group, and by sex. Data were based on clinical trials and published and unpublished sources. An HPV-16/18 vaccine for 12-year-old girls would reduce cohort cervical cancer cases by 61.8%, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 14,583 dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Including male participants in a vaccine rollout would further reduce cervical cancer cases by 2.2% at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 442,039 dollars/QALY compared to female-only vaccination. Vaccination against HPV-16 and HPV-18 can be cost-effective, although including male participants in a vaccination program is generally not cost-effective, compared to female-only vaccination.