1990年和2016年北京市心脑血管疾病负担及其变化

目的调查1990年和2016年北京市心脑血管疾病负担及其变化情况。方法利用2016年全球疾病负担研究数据,分析1990年和2016年北京市心脑血管疾病死亡情况和疾病负担。主要指标包括死亡人数、过早死亡损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(YLD)和伤残调整寿命年(DALY),同时使用2000—2025年世界人口的平均人口作为标准人口,计算标化死亡率、DALY率、YLL率和YLD率。结果2016年,北京市居民心脑血管病标化死亡率为209.24/10万;心脑血管病DALY、YLL和YLD分别为87.56、73.36和14.20万人年,较1990年分别增加了58.05%、44.24%和213.47%;标化DALY率和标化YLL率分别为3552.24/10万和2988.01/10万,较1990年分别下降47.90%和52.43%,标化YLD率为564.23/10万,较1990年增加5.10%。2016年,脑血管疾病和缺血性心脏病的死亡数分别为1.76万例和2.37万例;DALY分别为39.63和39.36万人年,较1990年(DALY分别为33.02和16.27万人年)分别增加20.02%和141.92%。结论北京市心脑血管疾病负担重,其中以脑血管疾病和缺血性心脏病最为显著;脑血管疾病的伤残负担严重,缺血性心脏病的疾病负担成倍增长。     

The Science of Salt: Updating the evidence on global estimates of salt intake

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study estimated national salt intake for 187 countries based on data available up to 2010. The purpose of this review was to identify studies that have measured salt intake in a nationally representative population using the 24‐hour urine collection method since 2010, with a view to updating evidence on population salt intake globally. Studies published from January 2011 to September 2018 were searched for from MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase databases using relevant terms. Studies that provided nationally representative estimates of salt intake among the healthy adult population based on the 24‐hour urine collection were included. Measured salt intake was extracted and compared with the GBD estimates. Of the 115 identified studies assessed for eligibility, 13 studies were included: Four studies were from Europe, and one each from the United States, Canada, Benin, India, Samoa, Fiji, Barbados, Australia, and New Zealand. Mean daily salt intake ranged from 6.75 g/d in Barbados to 10.66 g/d in Portugal. Measured mean population salt intake in Italy, England, Canada, and Barbados was lower, and in Fiji, Samoa, and Benin was higher, in recent surveys compared to the GBD 2010 estimates. Despite global targets to reduce population salt intake, only 13 countries have published nationally representative salt intake data since the GBD 2010 study. In all countries, salt intake levels remain higher than the World Health Organization's recommendation, highlighting the need for additional global efforts to lower salt intake and monitor salt reduction strategies.     

The Global Burden of Ischemic Stroke: Findings of the GBD 2010 Study

This study sought to summarize the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for ischemic stroke (IS) and to report the impact of tobacco smoking on IS burden in specific countries. The GBD 2010 searched multiple databases to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 analytical tools were used to calculate region-specific IS incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost, including 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). In 2010, there were approximately 11,569,000 incident IS events (63% in low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]), approximately 2,835,000 deaths from IS (57% in LMIC), and approximately 39,389,000 DALY lost due to IS (64% in LMIC). From 1990 to 2010, there was a significant increase in global IS burden in terms of absolute number of people with incident IS (37% increase), deaths from IS (21% increase), and DALY lost due to IS (18% increase). Age-standardized IS incidence, DALY lost, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios in high-income countries declined by about 13% (95% UI: 6% to 18%), 34% (95% UI: 16% to 36%), and 37% (95% UI: 19% to 39%), 21% (95% UI: 10% to 27%), respectively. However, in LMIC there was a modest 6% increase in the age-standardized incidence of IS (95% UI: −7% to 18%) despite modest reductions in mortality rates, DALY lost, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. There was considerable variability among country-specific estimates within broad GBD regions. China, Russia, and India were ranked highest in both 1990 and 2010 for IS deaths attributable to tobacco consumption. Although age-standardized IS mortality rates have declined over the last 2 decades, the absolute global burden of IS is increasing, with the bulk of DALY lost in LMIC. Tobacco consumption is an important modifiable risk factor for IS, and in both 1990 and 2010, the top ranked countries for IS deaths that could be attributed to tobacco consumption were China, Russia, and India. Tobacco control policies that target both smoking initiation and smoking cessation can play an important role in the prevention of IS. In China, Russia, and India, even modest reductions in the number of current smokers could see millions of lives saved due to prevention of IS alone.     

The Global Burden of Myocarditis: Part 1: A Systematic Literature Review for the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study

Myocarditis contributes to the global burden of cardiovascular disease primarily through sudden death and dilated cardiomyopathy. A systematic approach to identify the cardiovascular mortality and major morbidity attributable to myocarditis has not been performed. A writing group convened by the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors) Study systematically reviewed the world's literature by a manual review of all titles since 1966 on myocarditis identified using Ovid Medline, development of a disease model, and provision of estimates when possible of the incidence, prevalence, risk of death, and major morbidity for the world regions. Accurate population-based estimates of myocarditis incidence and prevalence are not directly available in any world region. However, a model that quantitates the risk of acute death and chronic heart failure following myocarditis was derived from the published data. Using hospital dismissal data, the burden of myocarditis as a percentage of prevalent heart failure varied by age and region from approximately 0.5% to 4.0%. The novel combination of multiple data sources may provide an estimate of the years of life lost and years of life disabled from myocarditis. Pending the integration of these data sources, the burden of dilated cardiomyopathy and myocarditis were reported together in the 2010 GBD report. The 2013 GBD project may refine these estimates with the inclusion of more comprehensive payor databases and more precise case definitions.     

Global and Regional Burden of Aortic Dissection and Aneurysms: Mortality Trends in 21 World Regions, 1990 to 2010

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: −0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: −0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: −0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: −0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, which portends future health system challenges in these regions.     

The Global Burden of Disease Study and the Preventable Burden of NCD

Noncommunicable diseases (NCD) now account for more than one-half of the global burden of disease. Cardiovascular diseases account for about one-half of NCD deaths, and the majority of cardiovascular disease deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study measures and benchmarks health loss from death or disability from more than 300 diseases in over 100 countries. According to GBD analyses, the rise of NCD is in part due to increased life expectancy due to reduced premature mortality from communicable, child, and maternal illnesses, but preventable risk factors also contribute and present targets for NCD control efforts. In addition to traditional NCD risk factors, like tobacco smoking, high blood pressure, and unhealthful diet, nontraditional risk factors like air pollution and unhealthful alcohol consumption also play a role. The GBD study continues to grow by gathering more data from country partners than ever before, and by measuring health at the national and subnational levels and in smaller time increments. The GBD study will continue to provide the data to set priorities for and measure progress in the global effort to control the rising burden of NCD.     

Burden of Chronic Viral Hepatitis and Liver Cirrhosis in Brazil - the Brazilian Global Burden of Disease Study

Introduction and aimData on epidemiology of liver diseases in Brazil is scarce. This study aimed to estimate the burden of chronic viral hepatitis and liver cirrhosis in the country.Materials and MethodsThe indicator used was disability-adjusted life year (DALY), a sum of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). Liver cirrhosis was analyzed in etiologic categories and cirrhosis of viral origin was considered part of the burden of chronic hepatitis.ResultsThere were 57,380 DALYs (30.3 per 100,000 inhabitants) attributable to chronic hepatitis B and cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, with 41,262 DALYs in men. Most burden was caused by YLL (47,015 or 24.8/100,000) rather than YLD (10,365 or 5.5/100,000). Chronic hepatitis C and cirrhosis due to hepatitis C were responsible for 207,747 DALYs (109.6/100,000), of which 137,922 were YLL (72.7/100,000) and 69,825 (36.8/100,000) were YLD, with a higher proportion of DALYs in men (73.9%). Cirrhosis due to alcohol or other causes had a total of 536,169 DALYs (1,4% of total DALYs in Brazil), with 418,272 YLL (341,140 in men) and 117,897 YLD (97,965 in men). Highest DALYs’ rates occurred at ages 60-69 in chronic hepatitis and at ages 45-59 in cirrhosis due to alcohol or other causes.ConclusionChronic viral hepatitis and liver cirrhosis are responsible for a significant burden in Brazil, affecting mainly men and individuals still in their productive years. Most burden is related to non-viral causes of cirrhosis, with a major contribution of alcohol.     

The Global Burden of Hemorrhagic Stroke: A Summary of Findings From the GBD 2010 Study

This report summarizes the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for hemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 study provided standardized estimates of the incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost for HS (including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage) by age, sex, and income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]) for 21 GBD 2010 regions in 1990, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, there were 5.3 million cases of HS and over 3.0 million deaths due to HS. There was a 47% increase worldwide in the absolute number of HS cases. The largest proportion of HS incident cases (80%) and deaths (63%) occurred in LMIC countries. There were 62.8 million DALY lost (86% in LMIC) due to HS. The overall age-standardized incidence rate of HS per 100,000 person-years in 2010 was 48.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.44 to 52.13) in HIC and 99.43 (95% CI: 85.37 to 116.28) in LMIC, and 81.52 (95% CI: 72.27 to 92.82) globally. The age-standardized incidence of HS increased by 18.5% worldwide between 1990 and 2010. In HIC, there was a reduction in incidence of HS by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 15%), mortality by 38% (95% CI: 32% to 43%), DALY by 39% (95% CI: 32% to 44%), and MIR by 27% (95% CI: 19% to 35%) in the last 2 decades. In LMIC countries, there was a significant increase in the incidence of HS by 22% (95% CI: 5% to 30%), whereas there was a significant reduction in mortality rates of 23% (95% CI: -3% to 36%), DALY lost of 25% (95% CI: 7% to 38%), and MIR by 36% (95% CI: 16% to 49%). There were significant regional differences in incidence rates of HS, with the highest rates in LMIC regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and lowest rates in High Income North America and Western Europe. The worldwide burden of HS has increased over the last 2 decades in terms of absolute numbers of HS incident events. The majority of the burden of HS is borne by LMIC. Rates for HS incidence, mortality, and DALY lost, as well as MIR decreased in the past 2 decades in HIC, but increased significantly in LMIC countries, particularly in those patients ≤75 years. HS affected people at a younger age in LMIC than in HIC. The lowest incidence and mortality rates in 2010 were in High Income North America, Australasia, and Western Europe, whereas the highest rates were in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. These results suggest that reducing the burden of HS is a priority particularly in LMIC. The GBD 2010 findings may be a useful resource for planning strategies to reduce the global burden of HS.     

Global and Regional Burden of Infective Endocarditis, 1990–2010: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease associated with serious complications. The GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study IE expert group conducted a systematic review of IE epidemiology literature to inform estimates of the burden on IE in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010. The disease model of IE for the GBD 2010 study included IE death and 2 sequelae: stroke and valve surgery. Several medical and science databases were searched for IE epidemiology studies in GBD high-, low-, and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were IE incidence, proportions of IE patients who developed stroke or underwent valve surgery, and case fatality. Literature searches yielded 1,975 unique papers, of which 115 published in 10 languages were included in the systematic review. Eligible studies were population-based (17%), multicenter hospital-based (11%), and single-center hospital-based studies (71%). Population-based studies were reported from only 6 world regions. Data were missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions. The crude incidence of IE ranged between 1.5 and 11.6 cases per 100,000 people and was reported from 10 countries. The overall mean proportion of IE patients that developed stroke was 0.158 ± 0.091, and the mean proportion of patients that underwent valve surgery was 0.324 ± 0.188. The mean case fatality risk was 0.211 ± 0.104. A systematic review for the GBD 2010 study provided IE epidemiology estimates for many world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IE in low- and middle-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IE will require improved IE surveillance in all world regions.     

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to illicit drug use and mental disorders: what is ‘Global Burden of Disease 2005’ and why does it matter?

Background   The estimated impact of illicit drug use and mental disorders upon population health needs to be understood because there is evidence that they produce substantial loss of life and disability, and information is needed on the comparative population health impact of different diseases and risk factors to help focus policy, service and research planning and execution.
Aims   To provide an overview of a global project, running since the end of 2007—Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2005.
Methods   The new GBD aims to update comprehensively the findings of the first GBD exercise. It aims to provide regional and global estimates of the burden of disease attributable to hundreds of diseases, injuries and their risk factors. Groups have been assembled to provide expert advice on the parameters needed to inform these estimates; here, we provide a brief summary of the broad range of work being undertaken by the group examining illicit drug use and mental disorders.
Discussion   The estimates of the contribution of mental disorders and illicit drugs to GBD will inform and potentially shape the focus of researchers, clinicians and governments in the years to come. We hope that interested readers might be encouraged to submit new data or feedback on the work completed thus far, as well as the work that is still under way and yet to be completed.     

Burden of diabetes mellitus attributable to demographic levels in Qatar: An emerging public health problem

BackgroundDiabetes is one of the main contributors to ill health and premature mortality worldwide and its prevalence has been rising during the last decades.AimThe aim of the present study was to quantify the burden of disease in terms of deaths and loss of healthy life years (DALYs) attributed to diabetes by its demographic levels in the State of Qatar.Materials and methodsThe methods were largely based on the established Global Burden of Disease methodology and use the burden of disease in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years lost due to disability (YLD) as the outcome measure. We calculated years lost due to disability (YLD) and years life lost (YLL) attributable to diabetes. The study was conducted during the period from June 2013 to January 2014.ResultsThe study findings revealed that disability adjusted life years (DALYs) has been increasing across the years and reached to 4.35 in 2011 from 2.58 in 2007. DALYs for men was remarkably higher than women during the period (2007–2011). Diabetes mellitus was the 6th leading cause of disease burden in Qatar (3.8%). The YLD showed a sharp increase in men (2.52 in 2011 from 1.34 in 2007) and women (1.05 in 2011 from 0.33 in 2007) during the year 2011. YLL portion of women enlarged considerably in 2011 (0.10) compared to 2010 (0.04). YLL for men and women was fluctuating across the years with a decrease in 2011 (18%) from 2007 (35%). Men and women in the age group 30–44 years had the highest peak across the years.ConclusionThe study findings revealed that diabetes disease burden was considerably high in Qatar, particularly in the working age group. DALYs has been increasing across the years.     

晚期血吸虫病疾病负担评价方法的比较研究

目的　比较晚期血吸虫病（晚血）伤残调整寿命年（Disability?adjusted life year, DALY）的评价方法,为准确评价晚血疾病负担提供依据。方法　以2017年湖南省晚血救助病例为研究对象,分别采用全球疾病负担（The global burden of disease and injury,GBD）通用症状法、增加晚血常见症状后的改良GBD法和基于患者生命质量评价的生命质量法,计算晚血患者健康寿命损失年（Years lived with disability, YLDs）。结果　GBD通用症状法计算得出湖南省晚血患者YLDs为673.94 人·年,人均YLDs为0.181人·年,YLDs率为10.61人·年/10万人;改良GBD法计算得出晚血患者YLDs为728.77人·年,人均YLDs为0.196人·年,YLDs率为11.48人·年/10万人;生命质量法计算得出晚血患者YLDs为1 761.99人·年,人均YLDs为0.474人·年,YLDs率为27.75人·年/10万人。改良GBD法计算所得湖南省晚血患者YLDs较GBD通用症状法高8.14%,生命质量法计算所得YLDs是GBD通用症状法的2.61倍。在纳入计算的各种主要晚血症状中,按照对晚血疾病负担贡献的高低排序,依次为腹水、中度贫血、重度贫血、腹泻和便血。结论　与GBD通用症状法、改良GBD法相比,生命质量法能更全面地评估晚血患者的YLDs。     

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY DUE TO AIDS: A STUDY OF BURDEN OF DISEASE AT A MUNICIPAL LEVEL

Introduction:

The purpose of measuring the burden of disease involves aggregating morbidity and mortality components into a single indicator, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to measure how much and how people live and suffer the impact of a disease.

Objective:

To estimate the global burden of disease due to AIDS in a municipality of southern Brazil.

Methods:

An ecological study was conducted in 2009 to examine the incidence and AIDS-related deaths among the population residing in the city of Tubarao, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Data from the Mortality Information System in the National Health System was used to calculate the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality. The calculation was based on the difference between a standardized life expectancy and age at death, with a discount rate of 3% per year. Data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLD). The DALY was estimated by the sum of YLL and YLD. Indicator rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed by age and gender.

Results:

A total of 131 records were examined, and a 572.5 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 593.1 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The rate among men amounted to 780.7 DALYs/100,000, whereas among women the rate was 417.1 DALYs/100,000. The most affected age groups were 30-44 years for men and 60-69 years for women.

Conclusion:

The burden of disease due to AIDS in the city of Tubarao was relatively high when considering the global trend. The mortality component accounted for more than 90% of the burden of disease.     

Slowing of life expectancy in the UK: Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background

Life expectancy in the UK stopped increasing in 2010. To identify possible causes, we explored changes in life expectancy by age, sex, and condition.

晚期血吸虫病疾病负担评价方法的比较研究

目的　比较晚期血吸虫病（晚血）伤残调整寿命年（Disability?adjusted life year, DALY）的评价方法，为准确评价晚血疾病负担提供依据。方法　以2017年湖南省晚血救助病例为研究对象，分别采用全球疾病负担（The global burden of disease and injury，GBD）通用症状法、增加晚血常见症状后的改良GBD法和基于患者生命质量评价的生命质量法，计算晚血患者健康寿命损失年（Years lived with disability, YLDs）。结果　GBD通用症状法计算得出湖南省晚血患者YLDs为673.94 人·年，人均YLDs为0.181人·年，YLDs率为10.61人·年/10万人；改良GBD法计算得出晚血患者YLDs为728.77人·年，人均YLDs为0.196人·年，YLDs率为11.48人·年/10万人；生命质量法计算得出晚血患者YLDs为1 761.99人·年，人均YLDs为0.474人·年，YLDs率为27.75人·年/10万人。改良GBD法计算所得湖南省晚血患者YLDs较GBD通用症状法高8.14%，生命质量法计算所得YLDs是GBD通用症状法的2.61倍。在纳入计算的各种主要晚血症状中，按照对晚血疾病负担贡献的高低排序，依次为腹水、中度贫血、重度贫血、腹泻和便血。结论　与GBD通用症状法、改良GBD法相比，生命质量法能更全面地评估晚血患者的YLDs。     

Hypertension: The most important non communicable disease risk factor in India

Non-communicable diseases are important causes of mortality and morbidity in India. Data from the Registrar General of India, World Health Organization and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study have reported that cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most important causes of death and disability. Age-adjusted mortality from these conditions has increased by 31% in last 25 years. Case-control studies have reported that hypertension is most important risk factor for CVD in India. GBD Study has estimated that hypertension led to 1.6 million deaths and 33.9 million disability-adjusted life years in 2015 and is most important cause of disease burden in India. Intensive public health effort is required to increase its awareness, treatment and control. UN Sustainable Development Goals highlight the importance of high rates of hypertension control for achieving target of 1/3 reduction in non-communicable disease mortality by 2030. It is estimated that better hypertension control can prevent 400–500,000 premature deaths in India.     

Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to high sugar-sweetened beverages intake from 1990 to 2019

Background and aimsExcessive sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) intake is associated with a higher risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD). However, global patterns and trends in the burden of IHD attributable to high SSBs intake have not been systematically assessed.Methods and resultsWe retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We obtained the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of IHD attributable to high SSBs intake by sex, year, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, we used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes in the 21 GBD regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global IHD mortality attributable to high SSBs intake, as quantified by ASMR and ASDR declined significantly, while the burden increased saliently in absolute numbers. Population decomposition suggested that changes in epidemiology in most GBD regions have reduced IHD mortality due to high SSBs intake, but this trend has been counteracted by population growth and aging.ConclusionsAlthough the age-standardized rate of IHD deaths and DALYs attributable to high SSBs intake decreased overall from 1990 to 2019, the absolute IHD burden remains high in some countries, especially in some developing countries in Asia and Oceania. Action is needed to enhance the prevention of diseases associated with high SSBs intake.     

Alcohol consumption and non-communicable diseases: epidemiology and policy implications

Aims This paper summarizes the relationships between different patterns of alcohol consumption and various on non‐communicable disease (NCD) outcomes and estimates the percentage of NCD burden that is attributable to alcohol. Methods A narrative review, based on published meta‐analyses of alcohol consumption‐disease relations, together with an examination of the Comparative Risk Assessment estimates applied to the latest available revision of Global Burden of Disease study. Results Alcohol is causally linked (to varying degrees) to eight different cancers, with the risk increasing with the volume consumed. Similarly, alcohol use is related detrimentally to many cardiovascular outcomes, including hypertension, haemorrhagic stroke and atrial fibrillation. For other cardiovascular outcomes the relationship is more complex. Alcohol is furthermore linked to various forms of liver disease (particularly with fatty liver, alcoholic hepatitis and cirrhosis) and pancreatitis. For diabetes the relationship is also complex. Conservatively, of the global NCD‐related burden of deaths, net years of life lost (YLL) and net disability adjusted life years (DALYs), 3.4%, 5.0% and 2.4%, respectively, can be attributed to alcohol consumption, with the burden being particularly high for cancer and liver cirrhosis. This burden is especially pronounced in countries of the former Soviet Union. Conclusions There is a strong link between alcohol and non‐communicable diseases, particularly cancer, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, pancreatitis and diabetes, and these findings support calls by the World Health Organization to implement evidence‐based strategies to reduce harmful use of alcohol.     

Weight change in later life and risk of death amongst the elderly: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition‐Elderly Network on Ageing and Health study

Abstract. Bamia C, Halkjær J, Lagiou P, Trichopoulos D, Tjønneland A, Berentzen TL, Overvad K, Clavel‐Chapelon F, Boutron‐Ruault M‐C, Rohrmann S, Linseisen J, Steffen A, Boeing H, May AM, Peeters PH, Bas Bueno‐de‐Mesquita H, van den Berg SW, Dorronsoro M, Barricarte A, Rodriguez Suarez L, Navarro C, González CA, Boffetta P, Pala V, Hallmans G, Trichopoulou A (University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Bureau of Epidemiologic Research, Athens, Greece; Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece; Institute of Preventive Medicine, Copenhagen, Denmark; Institute of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; Center for Cardiovascular Research, Aalborg, Denmark; Institut Gustave‐Roussy, Paris, France; German Cancer Research Centre, Heidelberg, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Potsdam, Germany; German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam‐Rehbruecke, Potsdam, Germany; University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands; Public Health and Primary Care, London, UK; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Public Health Department of Gipuzkoa & Ciberesp, San Sebastian, Spain; Health Institute of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain; Health and Healthcare services council, Asturias, Spain; Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain; Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Fondazione IRCSS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy; and Nutritional Research, Umea, Sweden). Weight change in later life and risk of death amongst the elderly: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition‐Elderly Network on Ageing and Health study. J Intern Med 2010; 268 : 133–144. Objective. Later life weight change and mortality amongst elders. Design. Nested case–control study. Setting. Six countries from the European Investigation into Cancer and nutrition – Elderly, Network on Ageing and Health. Subjects. A total of 1712 deceased (cases) and 4942 alive (controls) were selected from 34 239 participants, ≥ 60 years at enrolment (1992–2000) who were followed‐up until March 2007. Annual weight change was estimated as the weight difference from recruitment to the most distant from‐date‐of‐death re‐assessment, divided by the respective time. Outcome measures. Mortality in relation to weight change was examined using conditional logistic regression. Results. Weight loss >1 kg year^?1 was associated with statistically significant increased death risk (OR = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.41–1.92) compared to minimal weight change (±1 kg year^?1). Weight gain >1 kg year^?1 was also associated with increased risk of death (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 0.98–1.37), but this was evident and statistically significant only amongst overweight/obese (OR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.17–2.05). In analyses by time interval since weight re‐assessment, the association of mortality with weight loss was stronger for the interval proximal (<1 year) to death (OR = 3.10; 95% CI: 2.03–4.72). The association of mortality with weight gain was stronger at the interval of more than 3 years and statistically significant only amongst overweight/obese (OR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.07–2.33). Similar patterns were observed regarding death from circulatory diseases and cancer. Conclusions. In elderly, stable body weight is a predictor of lower subsequent mortality. Weight loss is associated with increased mortality, particularly short‐term, probably reflecting underlying nosology. Weight gain, especially amongst overweight/obese elders, is also associated with increased mortality, particularly longer term.