How does managed care manage the frail elderly? The case of hospital readmissions in fee-for-service versus HMO systems

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether hospital readmissions varied among the frail elderly in managed care versus fee-for-service (FFS) systems. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Random sample of 450 patients, aged 65 and over, from a large vertically integrated health care system in San Diego, California. Participants were receiving physician-authorized home health and survived and 18-month follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to conduct comparisons of readmissions and preventable readmissions by plan type. Two methods to identify preventable readmissions were developed, one based on a computerized algorithm of service use patterns, and another based on blind clinical review. RESULTS: The odds of having a preventable hospital readmission within 90 days of an index admission were 3.51 (P = 0.06) to 5.82 (P = 0.02) times as high for Medicare HMO enrollees compared to Medicare FFS participants, depending on the method used to assess preventability. Readmission patterns were similar for Medicare HMO enrollees and FFS study participants dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid. CONCLUSION: In this group of frail elderly Medicare beneficiaries, those enrolled in an HMO were more likely to have a preventable hospital readmission than those receiving care under FFS. These results suggest that policies promoting stringent approaches to utilization control (e.g., early hospital discharge, reduced levels of post-acute care, and restricted use of home health services) may be problematic for the frail elderly.     

The effect of HMOs on fee-for-service health care expenditures: evidence from Medicare revisited

This paper implements a new method for calculating the extent of selection in the aged Medicare HMO market. Selection is measured as the difference in average costs between new Medicare HMO enrollees and Medicare fee-for-service stayers with data from 1990 to 1994. Results suggest Medicare HMO enrollees were 1030 US dollars cheaper in their first year of enrollment. The effect is found entirely in Part A (hospital) expenditures, confirming selection is based on inpatient rather than outpatient or preventive care. These results are consistent with previous work.     

Health care use and expenditures of Medicare HMO disenrollees

We examine the impact of the first wave of Medicare health maintenance organization HMO withdrawals. With data from CMS and United Health Group, we estimate use and expenditure changes between 1998 and 1999 for HMO enrollees who were involuntarily dropped from their plan and returned to fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare using a difference-in-difference model. Compared to those who voluntarily left an HMO, involuntarily disenrolled beneficiaries had higher out-of-pocket expenditures, an 80 percent decrease in physician visits, 38 percent higher emergency room (ER) use and a higher probability of dying. The results suggest beneficiaries face significant costs and reduced health outcomes from unstable Medicare managed care markets.     

Use of preventive care services,beneficiary characteristics,and Medicare HMO performance

Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees use more preventive care services than their fee-for-service (FFS) counterparts. This may be because those who enroll in HMOs have characteristics that make them more disposed to use preventive care. To investigate this possibility, we examined the use of four preventive care services by respondents to the 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Unadjusted preventive care use rates for HMO enrollees were slightly higher than rates for non-HMO enrollees with private supplemental insurance. However, after adjusting for enrollee characteristics (sociodemographics, health behaviors, health status, and functioning) we found that preventive care use rates for HMO enrollees were substantially higher--consistent with HMO enrollees being less disposed to use preventive care. In comparing preventive care service rates across groups, managers and policymakers may want to consider taking into account beneficiary characteristics that are correlated with the disposition to use preventive care.     

State variations in Medicare expenditures.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined variations in Medicare expenditures across states. METHODS: 1992 data on average Medicare expenditures per enrollee, users of services per 1000 enrollees, service use per user, and payment per unit of service were compared across states for various services. Weighted least squares regression analysis was employed to examine total Medicare expenditures per enrollee by state. RESULTS: Variation in Medicare expenditures across states is driven more by average number of service users per 1000 enrollees and average service units per user than by average payment per service unit. Medicare expenditures per enrollee by state are primarily a function of Medicare HMO penetration rate (P = .000), urban area (P = .001), hospital bed supply (P = .005), elderly mortality rate (P = .012), Medicare physician assignment rate (P = .026), percentage of primary care practitioners (P = .042), and interactions between urban elderly and percentage of primary care physicians (P = .005) and Black elderly and nursing home bed supply (P = .012). CONCLUSIONS: Before sweeping Medicare cuts are undertaken or excessive reliance on managed care occurs, attention should be focused on the current disproportionate distribution of expenditures across states.     

Including hospice in Medicare capitation payments: would it save money?

Hospice services received by Medicare risk-based health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees are paid on a non-capitated basis, creating financial incentives for HMOs to encourage their terminally ill patients to elect hospice. Using Medicare administrative records for 1998, we found that hospice enrollment in the last month of life was significantly higher among HMO enrollees than among beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS). However, low mortality rates among HMO enrollees produced similar population-based rates of hospice use in the HMO and FFS sectors. Simulations showed that including hospice care under capitation payments in July 1998 would have produced very small savings for Medicare.     

Evaluation of the Effect of a Consumer-Driven Health Plan on Medical Care Expenditures and Utilization

Objective. To compare medical care costs and utilization in a consumer-driven health plan (CDHP) to other health insurance plans.
Study Design. We examine claims and employee demographic data from one large employer that adopted a CDHP in 2001. A quasi-experimental pre–post design is used to assign employees to three cohorts: (1) enrolled in a health maintenance organization (HMO) from 2000 to 2002, (2) enrolled in a preferred provider organization (PPO) from 2000 to 2002, or (3) enrolled in a CDHP in 2001 and 2002, after previously enrolling in either an HMO or PPO in 2000. Using this approach we estimate a difference-in-difference regression model for expenditure and utilization measures to identify the impact of CDHP.
Principal Findings. By 2002, the CDHP cohort experienced lower total expenditures than the PPO cohort but higher expenditures than the HMO cohort. Physician visits and pharmaceutical use and costs were lower in the CDHP cohort compared to the other groups. Hospital costs and admission rates for CDHP enrollees, as well as total physician expenditures, were significantly higher than for enrollees in the HMO and PPO plans.
Conclusions. An early evaluation of CDHP expenditures and utilization reveals that the new health plan is a viable alternative to existing health plan designs. Enrollees in the CDHP have lower total expenditures than PPO enrollees, but higher utilization of resource-intensive hospital admissions after an initially favorable selection.     

Consumer advocacy in Medicare HMOs

Rising out-of-pocket health care costs and premiums for Medicare supplemental insurance are driving many beneficiaries out of traditional fee-for-service Medicare and into health maintenance organizations. These consumers give up unrestricted provider choice in exchange for controlled costs and some additional service. However, in the context of weak oversight by the federal Health Care Financing Administration, the push by health plans to increase profits has meant that vulnerable Medicare HMO enrollees may not receive the services and consumer protections required by law.     

Selection experiences in Medicare HMOs: pre-enrollment expenditures

Using 1993 and 1994 data, the authors examine whether beneficiaries who enroll in a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), including those enrolling for only a short period of time, have lower expenditures than continuous fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries the year prior to enrollment. We also test whether biased selection varies by the level of HMO market penetration and the rate of market-share growth. We find favorable selection associated with enrollment into Medicare HMOs, which declines as market share increases but does not disappear. Among short-term enrollees, we find unfavorable selection, however, selection bias was not sensitive to market characteristics.     

Managed care and medical expenditures of Medicare beneficiaries

This paper investigates the impact of Medicare HMO penetration on the medical care expenditures incurred by Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) enrollees. We find that increasing penetration leads to reduced spending on FFS beneficiaries. In particular, our estimates suggest that the increase in HMO penetration during our study period led to approximately a 7% decline in spending per FFS beneficiary. Similar models for various measures of health care utilization find penetration-induced reductions consistent with our spending estimates. Finally, we present evidence that suggests our estimated spending reductions are driven by beneficiaries who have at least one chronic condition.     

How the elderly fare in HMOs: outcomes from the Medicare competition demonstrations.

Because of concern about the effects of prepaid care on outcomes for elderly enrollees in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), a prospective study of access to care and functional outcomes was performed. HMOs with Medicare risk contracts in January 1985 (N = 17) were selected from ten communities and were matched for comparison with ten similar communities where no Medicare HMOs were in operation. Random samples of HMO enrollees (N = 2,098) and fee-for-service (FFS) nonenrollees (N = 1,059) were assessed at baseline and at follow-up one year later (HMO = 1,873, FFS = 916) to observe access to care and functional outcomes. At baseline, nonenrollees had more bed days and poorer functional status than HMO enrollees. While fewer HMO enrollees experienced declines in functional status between baseline and follow-up (e.g., patient's ability to function declined in one or more activities of daily living: HMOs at 5.3 percent versus FFS at 8.5 percent, p < .01), after controlling for other factors with logistic regression, enrollment status was not significantly associated with functional decline. Self-rated health, history of hospitalization, age of 80 or older and baseline functional status were predictive of decline in function. After controlling for baseline differences, HMO disenrollees also experienced similar functional declines at follow-up compared to continuously enrolled beneficiaries. These findings suggest that Medicare beneficiaries who belong to HMOs experience comparable rates of functional decline to those experienced by beneficiaries in the FFS sector with similar initial levels of function and health status. Together with results showing no significant difference in medical visits according to various symptoms, we conclude that access and quality of care delivered by HMOs is comparable to that provided in FFS settings.     

Social Health Maintenance Organizations: assessing their initial experience.

The Social/Health Maintenance Organization (S/HMO) is a four-site national demonstration. This program combines Medicare Part A and B coverage, with various extended and chronic care benefits, into an integrated health plan. The provision of these services extends both the traditional roles of HMOs and that of long-term care community-service case management systems. During the initial 30 months of operation the four S/HMOs shared financial risk with the Health Care Financing Administration. This article reports on this developmental period. During this phase the S/HMOs had lower-than-expected enrollment levels due in part to market competition, underfunding of marketing efforts, the limited geographic area served, and an inability to differentiate the S/HMO product from that of other Medicare HMOs. The S/HMOs were allowed to conduct health screening of applicants prior to enrolling them. The number of nursing home-certifiable enrollees was controlled through this mechanism, but waiting lists were never very long. Persons joining S/HMOs and other Medicare HMOs during this period were generally aware of the alternatives available. S/HMO enrollees favored the more extensive benefits; HMO enrollees considerations of cost. The S/HMOs compare both newly formed HMOs and established HMOs. On the basis of administrator cost, it is more efficient to add chronic care benefits to an HMO than to add an HMO component to a community care provider. All plans had expenses greater than their revenues during the start-up period, but they were generally able to keep service expenditures within planned levels.     

A randomized trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a Medicaid HMO

The value of health-care services used by AFDC Medicaid patients receiving care in a voluntary enrollment HMO is contrasted with that of health care services used by Medicaid patients receiving fee-for-service (FFS) care. The randomized assignment of Medicaid recipients to the HMO or to FFS allows the authors to conclude that the apparent lower use of HMO enrollees results from the HMO's selection of patients with lower needs for care rather than from technical efficiency. Patients had lower use while in the HMO, but disenrollees and those who refused enrollment had significantly higher use than FFS participants. In contrast to the effect of HMOs on non-Medicaid populations, the Medicaid HMO studied provided significantly fewer outpatient services, but the same level of inpatient services as the FFS sector. Overall, voluntary enrollment of Medicaid eligibles into the HMO resulted in higher state expenditures for Medicaid because of favorable selection.     

Medicare Advantage Chronic Special Needs Plan boosted primary care, reduced hospital use among diabetes patients

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 authorized the continued availability of Medicare Advantage Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans (C-SNPs). This case study examines the model of care used by the largest such plan, Care Improvement Plus, and compares utilization rates among its diabetes patients with those of other beneficiaries enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare in the same five states. This special-needs plan emphasizes direct contacts with patients to help identify gaps in care and promote primary and preventive health care. The comparative analysis indicates that people with diabetes in the special-needs plan-particularly nonwhite beneficiaries-had lower rates of hospitalization and readmission than their peers in fee-for-service Medicare. For example, risk-adjusted hospital days per enrollee among special-needs plan participants were 19 percent lower than for fee-for-service Medicare enrollees (27 percent lower for nonwhite enrollees). Risk-adjusted physician office visits were 7 percent higher among C-SNP enrollees than among comparable fee-for-service enrollees (26 percent higher for nonwhite enrollees). Although this study does not include a cost analysis, we believe that savings from reduced hospitalizations are likely to more than offset the additional costs of enhanced primary care programs. Our study suggests that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services may be able to adapt methods used by the C-SNP program to improve care and outcomes for beneficiaries with a broad range of chronic diseases.     

PMD6 Chronic Care Costs of New Medicare HMO Enrollees: Implications for Disease Management

Cost-effective care for chronic conditions is a growing concern of health plans enrolling increasing numbers of the elderly and disabled under Medicare risk contracts. This study provides evidence of the prevalence, patterns of care, and costs of chronic illnesses among new Medicare HMO enrollees. The results provide a foundation for estimates of the cost-effectiveness of drug therapy and care management programs that serve this group.
METHODS: We used national Medicare claims data to examine chronic care services and associated costs for a sample of 19,084 beneficiaries who enrolled in an HMO in 1995. We constructed three measures of cost: the total Medicare-covered cost, the cost of medical claims with the chronic condition coded as a diagnosis, and the regression-estimated effect of the chronic condition on cost.
RESULTS: 58% of the new Medicare HMO enrollees in our sample were treated for at least one of the selected chronic conditions in the six months before enrollment. One-third of the new enrollees had multiple conditions represented by diagnoses in more than one of eighteen chronic-condition groups. Persons with chronic conditions accounted for 93% of pre-enrollment Medicare costs among new HMO enrollees. Per 1,000 enrollees, pre-enrollment Medicare costs were greatest for those with hypertensive disease, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS: The concentration of utilization and costs in those with chronic conditions suggests that appropriate drug therapy and care management for those with chronic conditions should be a top priority for HMOs with Medicare risk contracts. These estimates of prevalence suggest a need for HMOs to screen new Medicare HMO enrollees for chronic conditions immediately upon enrollment to ensure continuity of care.     

Comparing mortality and time until death for medicare HMO and FFS beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To compare adjusted mortality rates of TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees and disenrollees with rates of beneficiaries enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service sector (FFS), and to compare the time until death for decedents in these three groups. DATA SOURCE: Data are from the 124 counties with the largest TEFRA-risk HMO enrollment using 1993-1994 Medicare Denominator files for beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS and TEFRA-risk HMO sectors. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study that tracks the mortality rates and time until death of a random sample of 1,240,120 Medicare beneficiaries in the FFS sector and 1,526,502 enrollees in HMOs between April 1, 1993 and April 1, 1994. A total of 58,201 beneficiaries switched from an HMO to the FFS sector and were analyzed separately. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HMO enrollees have lower relative odds of mortality than a comparable group of FFS beneficiaries. Conversely, HMO disenrollees have higher relative odds of mortality than comparable FFS beneficiaries. Among decedents in the three groups, HMO enrollees lived longer than FFS beneficiaries, who in turn lived longer than HMO disenrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees appear to be, on average, healthier than beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS sector, who appear to be in turn healthier than HMO disenrollees. These health status differences persist, even after controlling for beneficiary demographics and county-level variables that might confound the relationship between mortality and the insurance sector.     

Medicare beneficiaries rate their medical care: new data from the MCBS (Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey)

The Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) contains a wealth of information about the people whose care is financed by the program. This article examines their satisfaction with medical care received and explores the relationship of these attitudes with the characteristics of subgroups of the enrolled population. Satisfaction with medical care among Medicare beneficiaries is found to be generally high (80-90 percent). Disabled Medicare beneficiaries are less satisfied than the aged, and health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees less satisfied than fee-for-service (FFS) patients. Others with lower-than-average satisfaction are people with poorer health status, those covered by Medicaid, and those without supplementary insurance.     

The effect of HMOs on fee-for-service health care expenditures: evidence from Medicare

This paper examines the relationship between HMO market share and fee-for-service health care expenditures using 1986-1990 county- and metropolitan statistical area-level data on Medicare expenditures and HMO market share. Fixed-effects estimates imply that fee-for-service expenditures are concave and decreasing in market share. Increases in market share from 20% to 30% are associated with 3-7% expenditure reductions. Instrumental variable estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation in HMO activity also indicate a concave relationship, with expenditures declining in market share for market shares above 15-18%, but imply larger expenditure responses to market share changes.     

Enrollee health status under Medicare risk contracts: an analysis of mortality rates.

Previous studies comparing the health status of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled under HMO risk contracts to that of Medicare beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS) have generally focused on demonstration projects conducted before 1985. This study examines mortality rates in 1987 for approximately 1 million aged Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in 108 HMOs. We estimated adjusted mortality ratios (AMR) for each HMO and across all HMOs, by dividing the actual number of deaths among HMO enrollees by the "expected" number of deaths. The expected number of deaths was based on death rates among local FFS populations, adjusting for age, sex, Medicaid buy-in status, and institutional status. The AMR for all HMO enrollees pooled together was 0.80. For persons newly enrolled in 1987, the AMR was 0.69; in general, AMRs were higher for beneficiaries who had been enrolled for longer periods of time. Among individual HMOs, none exhibited an AMR substantially above 1.00. Regression analysis indicated lower AMRs for staff model HMOs than for either IPA or group models. Low mortality among Medicare HMO enrollees is consistent with favorable selection or with improvements in the health status of enrollees due to better access or quality of care in HMOs. In either case, health status differences between HMO enrollees and FFS beneficiaries have implications for the appropriateness of Medicare's Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment formula for HMOs.