Use of alarm features in referral of febrile children to the emergency department: an observational study

Background

The diagnostic value of alarm features of serious infections in low prevalence settings is unclear.

Aim

To explore to what extent alarm features play a role in referral to the emergency department (ED) by GPs who face a febrile child during out-of-hours care.

Design and setting

Observational study using semi-structured, routine clinical practice data of febrile children (<16 years) presenting to GP out-of-hours care.

Method

Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between alarm features of serious infections (selected from two guidelines and one systematic review) and referral to the ED. Adherence to the guideline was explored by a 2×2 contingency table.

Results

In total 794 (8.1%) of 9794 eligible patients were referred to the ED. Alarm signs most strongly associated with referral were ‘age <1 month’, ‘decreased consciousness’, ‘meningeal irritation’, and ‘signs of dehydration’. Nineteen percent of 3424 children with a positive referral indication according to the guideline were referred to the ED. The majority of those not referred had only one or two alarm features present. A negative referral indication was adhered to for the majority of children. Still, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent.

Conclusion

In contrast to guidance, GPs working in primary out-of-hours care seem more conservative in referring febrile children to the ED, especially if only one or two alarm features of serious infection are present. In addition, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent, which suggests that other factors may be important in decisions about referral of febrile children to the hospital ED.     

Risk of childhood cancer with symptoms in primary care: a population-based case-control study

Background

Guidelines describing symptoms in children that should alert GPs to consider cancer have been developed, but without any supporting primary-care research.

Aim

To identify symptoms and signs in primary care that strongly increase the likelihood of childhood cancer, to assist GPs in selection of children for investigation.

Design and setting

A population-based case-control study in UK general practice.

Method

Using electronic primary care records from the UK General Practice Research Database, 1267 children aged 0–14 years diagnosed with childhood cancer were matched to 15 318 controls. Clinical features associated with subsequent diagnosis of cancer were identified using conditional logistic regression, and likelihood ratios and positive predictive values (PPVs) were estimated for each.

Results

Twelve symptoms were associated with PPVs of ≥0.04%, which represents a greater than tenfold increase in prior probability. The six symptoms with the highest PPVs were pallor (odds ratio, OR = 84; PPV = 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12% to 1.34%), head and neck masses (OR = 17; PPV = 0.30%; 95% CI = 0.10% to 0.84%), masses elsewhere (OR = 22; PPV = 0.11%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.20%), lymphadenopathy (OR = 10; PPV = 0.09%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.13%), symptoms/signs of abnormal movement (OR = 16; PPV = 0.08%; 95% CI = 0.04% to 0.14%), and bruising (OR = 12; PPV = 0·08%; 95% CI = 0.05% to 0.13%). When each of these 12 symptoms was combined singly with at least three consultations in a 3-month period, the probability of cancer was between 11 and 76 in 10 000.

Conclusion

Twelve features of childhood cancers were identified, each of which increased the risk of cancer at least tenfold. These symptoms, particularly when combined with multiple consultations, warrant careful evaluation in general practice.     

Clinical presentation and microbiological diagnosis in paediatric respiratory tract infection: a systematic review

Background

Antibiotic prescribing decisions for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care could be improved if clinicians could target bacterial infections. However, there are currently no evidence-based diagnostic rules to identify microbial aetiology in children presenting with acute RTIs.

Aim

To analyse evidence of associations between clinical symptoms or signs and detection of microbes from the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with acute cough.

Design and setting

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Method

A literature search identified articles reporting relationships between individual symptoms and/or signs, and microbes detected from URT samples. Associations between pathogens and symptoms or signs were summarised, and meta-analysis conducted where possible.

Results

There were 9984 articles identified, of which 28 met inclusion criteria. Studies identified 30 symptoms and 41 signs for 23 microbes, yielding 1704 potential associations, of which only 226 (13%) have presently been investigated. Of these, relevant statistical analyses were presented for 175 associations, of which 25% were significant. Meta-analysis demonstrated significant relationships between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detection and chest retractions (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6 to 2.3), wheeze (pooled OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.0), and crepitations/crackles (pooled OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.3 to 2.2).

Conclusions

There was an absence of evidence for URT pathogens other than RSV. The meta-analysis identified clinical signs associated with RSV detection, suggesting clinical presentation may offer some, albeit poor, diagnostic value. Further research is urgently needed to establish the value of symptoms and signs in determining microbiological aetiology and improve targeting of antibiotics in primary care.     

Accuracy of symptoms and signs for coronary heart disease assessed in primary care

Background

Diagnosing the aetiology of chest pain is challenging. There is still a lack of data on the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms for acute coronary events in low-prevalence settings.

Aim

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in patients presenting to general practice with chest pain.

Design of study

Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard.

Setting

Seventy-four general practices in Germany.

Method

The study included 1249 consecutive patients presenting with chest pain. Data were reviewed by an independent reference panel, with coronary heart disease (CHD) and an indication for urgent hospital admission as reference conditions. Main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, predictive value, and odds ratio (OR) for non-trauma patients with a reference diagnosis.

Results

Several signs and symptoms showed strong associations with CHD, including known vascular disease (OR = 5.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.83 to 9.30), pain worse on exercise (OR = 4.27; 95% CI = 2.31 to 7.88), patient assumes cardiac origin of pain (OR = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.53 to 6.60), cough present (OR = 0.08; 95% CI = 0.01 to 0.77), and pain reproducible on palpation (OR = 0.27; 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.56). For urgent hospital admission, effective criteria included pain radiating to the left arm (OR = 8.81; 95% CI = 2.58 to 30.05), known clinical vascular disease (OR = 7.50; 95% CI = 2.88 to 19.55), home visit requested (OR = 7.31; 95% CI = 2.27 to 23.57), and known heart failure (OR = 3.53; 95% CI = 1.14 to 10.96).

Conclusion

Although individual criteria were only moderately effective, in combination they can help to decide about further management of patients with chest pain in primary care.     

Predicting prolonged duration of fever in children: a cohort study in primary care

Background

Fever in children in primary care is commonly caused by benign infections, but often worries parents. Information about the duration of fever and its predictors may help in reassuring parents, leading to diminished consultation of health care.

Aim

To determine which signs and symptoms predict a prolonged duration of fever in febrile children in primary care and evaluate whether C-reactive protein (CRP) measurement has an additive predictive value for these symptoms.

Design and setting

A prospective cohort study at a GPs’ cooperative (GPC) out-of-hours service.

Method

Children (aged 3 months to 6 years) presenting with fever as stated by the parents were included. Exclusion criteria were no communication in Dutch possible, previous enrolment in the study within 2 weeks, referral to the hospital directly after visiting the GPC, or no informed consent. The main outcome measure was prolonged duration of fever (>3 days) after initial contact.

Results

Four-hundred and eighty children were analysed, and the overall risk of prolonged duration was 13% (63/480). Multivariate analysis combined model of patient history and physical examination showed that ‘sore throat’ (OR 2.8; 95% CI = 1.30 to 6.01) and ‘lymph nodes palpable’ (OR 1.87; 95% CI = 1.01 to 3.49) are predictive for prolonged duration of fever. The discriminative value of the model was low (AUC 0.64). CRP had no additive value in the prediction of prolonged duration of fever (OR 1.00; 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.01).

Conclusion

The derived prediction model indicates that only a few signs and symptoms are related to prolonged duration of fever. CRP has no additional value in this model. Overall, because the discriminative value of the model was low, the duration of fever cannot be accurately predicted.     

Comparison of brief interventions in primary care on smoking and excessive alcohol consumption: a population survey in England

Background

Brief interventions have a modest but meaningful effect on promoting smoking cessation and reducing excessive alcohol consumption. Guidelines recommend offering such advice opportunistically and regularly but incentives vary between the two behaviours.

Aim

To use representative data from the perspective of patients to compare the prevalence and characteristics of people who smoke or drink excessively and who receive a brief intervention.

Design and setting

Data was from a representative sample of 15 252 adults from household surveys in England.

Method

Recall of brief interventions on smoking and alcohol use, sociodemographic information, and smoking and alcohol consumption patterns were assessed among smokers and those who drink excessively (AUDIT score of ≥8), who visited their GP surgery in the previous year.

Results

Of 1775 smokers, 50.4% recalled receiving brief advice on smoking in the previous year. Smokers receiving advice compared with those who did not were more likely to be older (odds ratio [OR] 17-year increments 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.06 to 1.34), female (OR 1.35, 95% CI =1.10 to 1.65), have a disability (OR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.88), have made more quit attempts in the previous year (compared with no attempts: one attempt, OR 1.65, 95% CI = 1.32 to 2.08; ≥2 attempts, OR 2.02, 95% CI =1.49 to 2.74), and have greater nicotine dependence (OR 1.17, 95% CI =1.05 to 1.31) but were less likely to have no post-16 qualifications (OR 0.81, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.00). Of 1110 people drinking excessively, 6.5% recalled receiving advice in their GP surgery on their alcohol consumption in the previous year. Those receiving advice compared with those who did not had higher AUDIT scores (OR 1.17, 95% CI =1.12 to 1.23) and were less likely to be female (OR 0.44, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.87).

Conclusion

Whereas approximately half of smokers in England visiting their GP in the past year report having received advice on cessation, <10% of those who drink excessively report having received advice on their alcohol consumption.     

Which early ‘red flag’ symptoms identify children with meningococcal disease in primary care?

Background

Symptoms are part of the initial evaluation of children with acute illness, and are often used to help identify those who may have serious infections. Meningococcal disease is a rapidly progressive infection that needs to be recognised early among children presenting to primary care.

Aim

To determine the diagnostic value of presenting symptoms in primary care for meningococcal disease.

Design of study

Data on a series of presenting symptoms were collected using a parental symptoms checklist at point of care for children presenting to a GP with acute infection. Symptom frequencies were compared with existing data on the pre-hospital features of 345 children with meningococcal disease.

Setting

UK primary care.

Method

The study recruited a total of 1212 children aged under 16 years presenting to their GP with an acute illness, of whom 924 had an acute self-limiting infection, including 407 who were reported by parents to be febrile. Symptom frequencies were compared with those reported by parents of 345 children with meningococcal disease. Main outcome measures were diagnostic characteristics of individual symptoms for meningococcal disease.

Results

Five symptoms have clinically useful positive likelihood ratios (LR+) for meningococcal disease: confusion (LR+ = 24.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.5 to 51.3), leg pain (LR+ = 7.6, 95% CI = 4.9 to 11.9), photophobia (LR+ = 6.5, 95% CI = 3.8 to 11.0), rash (LR+ = 5.5, 95% CI = 4.3 to 7.1), and neck pain/stiffness (LR+ = 5.3, 95% CI = 3.5 to 8.3). Cold hands and feet had limited diagnostic value (LR+ = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.9 to 3.0), while headache (LR+ = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.8 to 1.3), and pale colour (LR+ = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.5) did not discriminate meningococcal disease in children.

Conclusion

This study confirms the diagnostic value of classic ‘red flag’ symptoms of neck stiffness, rash, and photophobia, but also suggests that the presence of confusion or leg pain in a child with an unexplained acute febrile illness should also usually prompt a face-to-face assessment to exclude meningococcal disease. Telephone triage systems and primary care clinicians should consider these as ‘red flags’ for serious infection.     

Predictive values of GPs’ suspicion of serious disease: a population-based follow-up study

Background

Knowledge is sparse on the prevalence of suspicion of cancer and other serious diseases in general practice. Likewise, little is known about the possible implications of this suspicion on future healthcare use and diagnoses.

Aim

To study the prevalence of GPs’ suspicions of cancer or other serious diseases and analyse how this suspicion predicted the patients’ healthcare use and diagnoses of serious disease.

Design and setting

Prospective population-based cohort study of 4518 patients consulting 404 GPs in a mix of urban, semi-urban and rural practices in Central Denmark Region during 2008–2009.

Method

The GPs registered consultations in 1 work day, including information on their suspicion of the presence of cancer or another serious disease. The patients were followed up for use of healthcare services and new diagnoses through the use of national registers.

Results

Prevalence of suspicion was 5.7%. Suspicion was associated with an increase in referrals (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.22 to 2.96), especially for diagnostic imaging (PR = 3.95, 95% CI = 2.80 to 5.57), increased risk of a new diagnosis of cancer or another serious disease within 2 months (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.93 to 4.62) — especially for cancer (HR = 7.55, 95% CI = 2.66 to 21.39) — and increased use of general practice (relative risk [RR] = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.24) and hospital visits (RR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.62 to 2.23). The positive predictive value of a GP suspicion was 9.8% (95% CI = 6.4 to 14.1) for cancer or another serious disease within 2 months.

Conclusion

A GP suspicion of serious disease warrants further investigation, and the organisation of the healthcare system should ensure direct access from the primary sector to specialised tests.     

GPs' awareness of patients' preference for place of death

Background

Being able to die in one''s place of choice is an indicator of the quality of end-of-life care. GPs may play a key role in exploring and honouring patients'' preferences for place of death.

Aim

To examine how often GPs are informed about patients'' preferred place of death, by whom and for which patients, and to study the expressed preferred place of death and how often patients die at their preferred place.

Design of study

One-year nationwide mortality retrospective study.

Setting

Sentinel Network of GPs in Belgium, 2006.

Method

GPs'' weekly registration of all deaths (patients aged ≥1 year).

Results

A total of 798 non-sudden deaths were reported. GPs were informed of patients'' preferred place of death in 46% of cases. GPs obtained this information directly from patients in 63%. GP awareness was positively associated with patients not being hospitalised in the last 3 months of life (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8 to 5.6), involvement of informal caregivers (OR = 3.3; 95% CI = 1.8 to 6.1), use of a multidisciplinary palliative care team (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.8 to 3.5), and with presence of more than seven contacts between GP and patient or family in the last 3 months of life (OR = 3.0; 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.3). In instances where GPs were informed, more than half of patients (58%) preferred to die at home. Overall, 80% of patients died at their preferred place.

Conclusion

GPs are often unaware of their patients'' preference for place of death. However, if GPs are informed, patients often die at their preferred location. Several healthcare characteristics might contribute to this and to a higher level of GP awareness.     

Employment loss during economic crisis and suicidal thoughts in Belgium: a survey in general practice

Background

The economic crisis of 2009 led to a wave of corporate reorganisations and bankruptcies, with many dismissals of employees. GPs were confronted with subsequent health consequences.

Aim

To assess the possible relationship between losing one’s job and having suicidal thoughts.

Design and setting

A survey of patients aged 18–49 years recruited from GP practices in Belgium in Deurne (Flemish region) and La Louvière (Walloon region) from September to December 2010.

Method

Anonymous self-administered questionnaire.

Results

Of all eligible patients (n = 1818), 831 were offered the questionnaire and 377 completed it (45.4%). More than one in five had been confronted with employment loss in the past year (the responder or someone close losing their job). Almost one in ten had lost their job themselves in the past year. More than one in four had experienced suicidal thoughts and 11.7% had seriously considered ending their life in the past year. In the logistic regression analysis, the following characteristics showed a statistically significant relationship with having suicidal thoughts: being single (odds ratio [OR] = 4.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 13.8), not having satisfying social contacts (OR = 5.1, 95% CI = 1.6 to 16.2), having depressive complaints (OR = 18.4, 95% CI = 5.8 to 58.4), and having lost one’s employment in the past year (OR = 8.8, 95% CI = 2.0 to 39.3).

Conclusion

This study points to a statistically significant relationship between losing one’s employment in the past year and having suicidal thoughts. It emphasises the important role of the GP in the continuous and reinforced assessment of suicidal risk in times of recession.     

Are alarm symptoms predictive of cancer survival?: Population-based cohort study

Background

Alarm symptom presentations are predictive of cancer diagnosis but may also be associated with cancer survival.

Aim

To evaluate diagnostic time intervals, and consultation patterns after presentation with alarm symptoms, and their association with cancer diagnosis and survival.

Design and setting

Cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Database, with linked Cancer Registry data, in 158 general practices.

Method

Participants included those with haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, and rectal bleeding or urinary tract cancer, lung cancer, gastro-oesophageal cancer, and colorectal cancer.

Results

The median (interquartile range) interval in days from first symptom presentation to the corresponding cancer diagnosis was: haematuria and urinary tract cancer, 59 (28–109); haemoptysis and lung cancer, 35 (18–89); dysphagia and gastro-oesophageal cancer, 25 (12–48); rectal bleeding and colorectal cancer, 49 (20–157). Three or more alarm symptom consultations were associated with increased odds of diagnosis of urinary tract cancer (odds ratio [OR] 1.84, 95% CI = 1.50 to 2.27), lung cancer (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.90) and gastro-oesophageal cancer (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.48 to 3.19). Longer diagnostic intervals were associated with increased mortality only for urinary tract cancer (hazard ratio 2.23, 95% CI = 1.35 to 3.69). Patients with no preceding alarm symptom had shorter survival from diagnosis of urinary tract, lung or colorectal cancer than those presenting with a relevant alarm symptom.

Conclusion

After alarm symptom presentation, repeat consultations are associated with cancer diagnoses. Longer diagnostic intervals appeared to be associated with a worse prognosis for urinary tract cancer only. Mortality is higher when cancer is diagnosed in the absence of alarm symptoms.     

Children at risk of medicinal and non-medicinal poisoning: a population-based case-control study in general practice

Background

Preschool children have a high risk of poisoning. While medicines prescribed by primary care are potential poisoning agents, the risk factors for poisoning from medication are not well described.

Aim

To identify risk factors for medicinal and non-medicinal poisoning in preschool children.

Design and setting

Population-based nested case-control study using The Health Improvement Network primary care database 1988–2004.

Method

Conditional logistic regression was used to identify child, maternal, and social risk factors for medicinal (1316 cases) and non-medicinal poisoning (503 cases), using 17 709 controls matched on general practice.

Results

Poisoning by medicines was independently associated with deprivation (test for trend P<0.001), maternal age (P<0.001), birth order (P<0.001), maternal alcohol misuse (odds ratio [OR] = 5.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.99 to 14.91), and perinatal depression (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.26 to 1.88). Living in a household with two or more adults lowered the odds of injury compared to single-parent households (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.74 to 0.96) and the odds varied by age, being highest in 2 year olds (OR = 9.61, 95% CI = 7.73 to 11.95). Non-medicinal poisoning was associated with deprivation (P = 0.001), maternal age (P<0.001), and birth order (P<0.001). The odds were raised in 1 year olds (OR = 5.44, 95% CI = 4.07 to 7.26) and 2 year olds (OR = 5.07, 95% CI = 3.73 to 6.90) compared to those aged <1 year.

Conclusion

Primary care data can be used to target interventions to children at risk of poisoning. This is pertinent when prescribing for children/family members, as prescribed medications may become poisoning agents. Prompt identification of maternal depression and alcohol misuse, and delivery of poisoning-prevention interventions at this stage may help prevent poisonings.     

Quantifying the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in symptomatic primary care patients aged ≥40 years: a large case–control study using electronic records

Background

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the sixth most common cancer in the UK; approximately 35 people are diagnosed and 13 die from the disease daily.

Aim

To identify the primary care clinical features of NHL and quantify their risk in symptomatic patients.

Design and setting

Matched case–control study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink patient records.

Method

Putative clinical features of NHL were identified in the year before diagnosis. Results were analysed using conditional logistic regression and positive predictive values (PPVs).

Results

A total of 4362 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with NHL between 2000 and 2009, and 19 468 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were studied. Twenty features were independently associated with NHL. The five highest risk symptoms were lymphadenopathy, odds ratio (OR) 263 (95% CI = 133 to 519), head and neck mass not described as lymphadenopathy OR 49 (95% CI = 32 to 74), other mass OR 12 (95% CI = 10 to 16), weight loss OR 3.2 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.4), and abdominal pain OR 2.5 (95% CI = 2.1 to 2.9). Lymphadenopathy has a PPV of 13% for NHL in patients ≥60 years. Weight loss in conjunction with repeated back pain or raised gamma globulin had PPVs >2%.

Conclusion

Unexplained lymphadenopathy in patients aged ≥60 years produces a very high risk of NHL in primary care. These patients warrant urgent investigation, potentially sooner than 6 weeks from initial presentation where the GP is particularly concerned.