Cost-Effectiveness of Treatments Reducing Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Ireland, 2000 to 2010

Objective:  Coronary heart disease (CHD) is associated with a large burden of disease in Ireland and is responsible for more than 6000 deaths annually. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of specific CHD treatments in Ireland.
Methods:  Irish epidemiological data on patient numbers and median survival in specific groups, plus the uptake, effectiveness, and costs of specific interventions, all stratified by age and sex, were incorporated into a previously validated CHD mortality model, the IMPACT model. This model calculates the number of life-years gained (LYGs) by specific cardiology interventions to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per LYG for each intervention.
Results:  In 2000, medical and surgical treatments together prevented or postponed approximately 1885 CHD deaths in patients aged 25 to 84 years, and thus generated approximately 14,505 extra life-years (minimum 7270, maximum 22,475). In general, all the cardiac interventions investigated were highly cost-effective in the Irish setting. Aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, spironolactone, and warfarin for specific conditions were the most cost-effective interventions (<€3000/LYG), followed by the statins for secondary prevention (<€6500/LYG). Revascularization for chronic angina and primary angioplasty for myocardial infarction, although still cost-effective, had the highest ICER (between €12,000 and €20,000/LYG).
Conclusions:  Using a comprehensive standardized methodology, cost-effectiveness ratios in this study clearly favored simple medical treatments for myocardial infarction, secondary prevention, angina, and heart failure.     

An Economic Evaluation of Valsartan for Post-MI Patients in the UK Who Are Not Suitable for Treatment with ACE Inhibitors

Objectives:  The overall objective of this study was to estimate the costs and outcomes associated with treatment with valsartan for post-myocardial infarction (post-MI) patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction, heart failure, or both, who are not suitable for treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, compared to placebo.
Methods:  A Markov model, using data drawn from the Valsartan in Acute Myocardial Infarction (VALIANT) trial and other trials, was developed to predict the future health pathways, resource use, and costs for patients who have recently experienced an MI. Patients received either valsartan (mean dose 247 mg) or placebo. Cost data were drawn from national databases and published literature, although health outcome utility weights were derived from existing studies. Patient outcomes were modeled for 10 years, and incremental cost-effective ratios were calculated for valsartan compared with placebo.
Results:  Over a period of 10 years, a cohort of 1000 patients treated with valsartan experienced 147 fewer cardiovascular deaths, 37 fewer nonfatal MIs, and 95 fewer cases of heart failure than a cohort who received placebo. The incremental cost of valsartan, compared with placebo, was £2680 per patient, although the incremental effectiveness of valsartan was 0.5021 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained per patient. Therefore, the incremental cost per QALY for treatment with valsartan was £5338. When analysis was undertaken using life-years rather than QALYs, the cost per life-year gained was £4672.
Conclusions:  For patients who are not suitable for treatment with ACE inhibitors, valsartan is a viable and cost-effective treatment for their management after an MI.     

Managing heart failure in primary care: first steps in implementing the National Service Framework

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is common, causes considerable morbidity, and imposes a major financial burden on both society and the National Health Service. The National Service Framework (NSF) for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) set national standards for the management of people with heart failure in England. We examined how patients with heart failure were investigated and treated compared with NSF standards, and explored the current constraints in improving the care of these patients. METHODS: This study was carried out in two general practices (total list size 19,600) in south London. Using a computer search strategy, patients with possible heart failure were identified and clinical data extracted from their medical records. Workshops on heart failure were held at a national conference on disease management in primary care, and key stakeholders were interviewed to identify constraints in improving management. RESULTS: Ninety patients with heart failure were identified through the computerized search. Seventy-eight patients (87 per cent) had a Read code for heart failure on their electronic medical record. Forty-eight (53 per cent) patients were men and 10 (12 per cent) were aged less than 65 years. Forty-nine per cent of patients had undergone an electrocardiogram and 42 per cent an echocardiogram. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors were prescribed to 54 per cent of patients. In the workshops and stakeholder interviews, healthcare professionals and managers reported difficulties in implementing the NSF. They expressed concerns regarding the difficulties in confirming a diagnosis of heart failure, including access to echocardiograms, prescribing ACE inhibitors among older patients, and the additional workload and resources needed to ensure they met the NSF standards for heart failure. CONCLUSION: The accurate identification of heart failure patients and recording of clinical information as part of disease registers needs to improve if primary care teams are to meet the NSF standards. There is also scope to improve the investigation and treatment of heart failure patients in primary care. Achieving these objectives will require additional resources.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Entacapone in Parkinson's Disease: A Markov Process Analysis

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a complementary treatment with entacapone versus usual care only in patients with Parkinson's disease.
Methods: The setting for this study was the Netherlands. A Markov process model was constructed to model the average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and the costs of both treatments. The model examined a period of 5 years in order to capture the influence of symptom improvement and disease progression. Data for the construction of the model were derived from published literature, including large, multicenter, randomized clinical trials in patients with end-of-dose motor fluctuations. Costs were obtained from published sources.
Results: The results of the baseline analysis showed that the use of entacapone as complementary therapy in Parkinson's disease slightly decreased the total average discounted costs from NLG 111,317 to NLG 110,038, while effectiveness increased from 2.42 to 2.56 QALYs (a 6% increase). In addition, entacapone substantially increased time without severe fluctuations by 0.63 years. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings.
Conclusion: The study shows that entacapone is a cost-effective treatment in patients with Parkinson's disease: entacapone yields higher effectiveness in terms of both effectiveness measures (time without severe fluctuations and QALYs), while costs remain quite similar to those for usual care. The additional drug costs for entacapone are offset by reductions in other costs.     

Diastolic heart failure

Diastolic heart failure is predominantly a disease of the elderly: at the age of 70 years, almost half of all patients with heart failure have diastolic heart failure. Hypertension and obesity are common underlying disorders in patients with diastolic heart failure. Patients with diastolic heart failure have an equal, or only slightly better, prognosis in terms of mortality compared to patients with systolic heart failure. Echocardiography can distinguish diastolic heart failure from systolic heart failure. Patients with heart failure and a normal ejection fraction almost certainly have a diastolic dysfunction. There is a lack of reliable data about the optimal medicinal treatment strategy for patients with diastolic heart failure. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, beta-blockers, and (non-dihydropyridine) calcium antagonists have therapeutic potential. Digoxin may be contraindicated.     

Addition of beta blockers in chronic heart failure

Chronic heart failure is an increasing cause of hospital admission in the Netherlands and Belgium. Despite numerous medical treatment modalities, the mortality remains high. Recent placebo-controlled randomized studies suggest that the addition of beta-blockers in stabilized, optimally pretreated patients with chronic heart failure using angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, diuretics and digitalis, is accompanied by an additional absolute decrease in mortality by about 5% and a relative decrease in mortality by about 35%. Also the number hospitalization frequency decreases. Initially, the beneficial effects of beta-blockers on symptoms are only minor or absent. During the initiation period some clinical deterioration may occur which has to be treated accordingly; these patients are, however, difficult to identify. Initiation has to be done using low doses and should be restricted to stabilized, optimally treated patients. Doses should only be increased every 2 to 4 weeks until target doses are reached. These findings must not be extrapolated automatically to all cases of heart failure, since patients in the trials may differ considerably from those encountered in general practice.     

A four-part regimen for clinical heart failure

Combination therapy with a diuretic, digoxin, ACE inhibitor, and beta-blocker can help patients with heart failure caused by severe systolic dysfunction feel better and live longer. Especially with ACE inhibitors and beta-blockers, the key to success is starting at low doses and titrating carefully to proven target doses. The demanding complexity of the four-drug regimen is well worth the results.     

An Asian Regional Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness of Early Irbesartan Treatment versus Conventional Antihypertensive, Late Amlodipine, and Late Irbesartan Treatments in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes, Hypertension, and Nephropathy

Objective:  The prevalence of type 2 diabetes, often leading to diabetic nephropathy, has increased globally, especially in Asia. Irbesartan treatment delays the progression of kidney disease at the early (microalbuminuria) and late (proteinuria) stages of nephropathy in hypertensive type 2 diabetics. This treatment has proven to be cost-effective in Western countries. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of early irbesartan treatment in Asian settings.
Methods:  An existing lifetime model was reprogrammed in Microsoft Excel to compare irbesartan started at an early stage to irbesartan or amlodipine started at a late stage, and standard treatments from a health-care perspective in China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. The main effectiveness parameters were incidences of end-stage renal disease, time in dialysis, and life expectancy. All costs were converted to 2004 US$ using official purchasing power parity. Local data were obtained for costs, transplantation,dialysis, and mortality rates. Probabilities regarding disease progression after treatment with the investigated drugs were extracted from two published clinical trials. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed.
Results:  Early use of irbesartan yielded the largest clinical and economic benefits reducing need for dialysis by 61% to 63% versus the standard treatment, total costs by 9% (Thailand) to 42% (Taiwan), and increasing life expectancy by 0.31 to 0.48 years. Early irbesartan had a 66% (Thailand) to 95% (Taiwan) probability of being dominant over late irbesartan.
Conclusion:  Although the absolute results varied in different settings, reflecting differences in epidemiology, management, and costs, early irbesartan treatment was a cost-effective alternative in the Asian settings.     

The Clinical and Economic Burden of Nonadherence with Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Therapy in Hypertensive Patients

Objective:  We sought to determine lifetime costs, morbidity, and mortality associated with varying adherence to antihypertensive and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statin) therapy in a hypertensive population.
Methods:  A model was constructed to compare costs and outcomes under three adherence scenarios: no treatment, ideal adherence, and real-world adherence. Simulated patients' characteristics matched those of participants in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial–Lipid-Lowering Arm and event probabilities were calculated with Framingham Heart Study risk equations. The real-world adherence scenario employed adherence data from an observational study of a US population; risk reductions at each level of adherence were based on linear extrapolations from clinical trials. Outputs included life expectancy, frequencies of primary and secondary coronary heart disease and stroke, and direct medical costs in 2006 US$. The incremental cost per life-year gained and incremental cost per event avoided were calculated comparing the three adherence scenarios.
Results:  Mean life expectancy was 14.73 years (no-treatment scenario), 15.07 (real-world adherence), and 15.49 (ideal adherence). The average number of cardiovascular events per patients was 0.738 (no treatment), 0.610 (real-world adherence), and 0.441 (ideal adherence). The incremental cost of real-world adherence versus no treatment is $30,585 per life-year gained, and ideal adherence versus real-world adherence is $22,121 per life-year gained.
Conclusions:  Hypertensive patients taking antihypertensive and statin therapy at real-world adherence levels can be expected to receive approximately 50% of the potential benefit seen in clinical trials. Depending on its cost, the incremental benefits of an effective adherence intervention program could make it an attractive value.     

Management of Childhood Urinary Tract Infections: An Economic Modeling Study

Childhood urinary tract infections (UTIs) can lead to renal scarring and ultimately to terminal renal failure, which has a high impact on quality of life, survival, and health-care costs. Variation in the treatment of UTIs between practices is high.
Objective:  To assess the cost-effectiveness of a maximum care model for UTIs in children, implying more testing and antibiotic treatment, compared with current practice in primary care in The Netherlands.
Methods:  We performed a probabilistic modeling study using Markov models. Figures used in the model were derived from a systematic review of the research literature. Multidimensional Monte Carlo simulation was used for the probabilistic analyses.
Results:  Maximum care gained 0.00102 (males) and 0.00219 (girls) QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years) and saved €42.70 (boys) and €77.81 (girls) in 30 years compared with current care, and was thus dominant. Net monetary benefit of maximum care ranged from €20 to €200 for a willingness to pay for a QALY ranging from €0 to €80,000, respectively. Maximum care was also dominant over improved current care, although less dominant than to current care.
Conclusions:  This study suggested that maximum care for childhood UTI was dominant in the long run to current care, meaning that it delivered more quality of life at lower costs. Nevertheless, making firm conclusions is not possible, given the limitations of the input data.     

Population impact of stricter adherence to recommendations for pharmacological and lifestyle interventions over one year in patients with coronary heart disease

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential number of lives saved associated with the full implementation of aspects of the National Service Framework (NSF) for coronary heart disease (CHD) in England using recently developed population impact measures. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: Primary care. DATA SOURCES: Published data on prevalence of acute myocardial infarction and heart failure, baseline risk of mortality, the relative risk reduction associated with different interventions and the proportion treated, eligible for treatment and adhering to each intervention. MAIN RESULTS: Adopting the NSF recommendations for pharmacological interventions would prevent an extra 1027 (95% CI 418 to 1994) deaths in post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients and an extra 37 899 (95% CI 25 690 to 52 503) deaths in heart failure patients in the first year after diagnosis. Lifestyle based interventions would prevent an extra 848 (95% CI 71 to 1 614) deaths in post-AMI patients and an extra 7249 (95% CI 995 to 16 696) deaths in heart failure patients. CONCLUSIONS: Moving from current to "best" practice as recommended in the NSF will have a much greater impact on one year mortality rates among heart failure patients compared with post-AMI patients. Meeting pharmacological based recommendations for heart failure patients will prevent more deaths than meeting lifestyle based recommendations. Population impact numbers can help communicate the impact on a population of the implementation of guidelines and, when created using local data, could help policy makers assess the local impact of implementing a range of health care targets.     

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: An economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective : To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder.
Methods : The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods.
Results : We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99–400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds.
Conclusions : The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.     

PMD6 Chronic Care Costs of New Medicare HMO Enrollees: Implications for Disease Management

Cost-effective care for chronic conditions is a growing concern of health plans enrolling increasing numbers of the elderly and disabled under Medicare risk contracts. This study provides evidence of the prevalence, patterns of care, and costs of chronic illnesses among new Medicare HMO enrollees. The results provide a foundation for estimates of the cost-effectiveness of drug therapy and care management programs that serve this group.
METHODS: We used national Medicare claims data to examine chronic care services and associated costs for a sample of 19,084 beneficiaries who enrolled in an HMO in 1995. We constructed three measures of cost: the total Medicare-covered cost, the cost of medical claims with the chronic condition coded as a diagnosis, and the regression-estimated effect of the chronic condition on cost.
RESULTS: 58% of the new Medicare HMO enrollees in our sample were treated for at least one of the selected chronic conditions in the six months before enrollment. One-third of the new enrollees had multiple conditions represented by diagnoses in more than one of eighteen chronic-condition groups. Persons with chronic conditions accounted for 93% of pre-enrollment Medicare costs among new HMO enrollees. Per 1,000 enrollees, pre-enrollment Medicare costs were greatest for those with hypertensive disease, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS: The concentration of utilization and costs in those with chronic conditions suggests that appropriate drug therapy and care management for those with chronic conditions should be a top priority for HMOs with Medicare risk contracts. These estimates of prevalence suggest a need for HMOs to screen new Medicare HMO enrollees for chronic conditions immediately upon enrollment to ensure continuity of care.     

The Health and Economic Consequences of Moderate Alcohol Consumption in Germany 2002

Objective:  Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with both positive and negative health effects. This study aims to estimate the positive and negative consequences on mortality, years of potential life (YPL), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), resource utilization, and societal costs attributable to moderate alcohol consumption in Germany in 2002.
Methods:  The concept of attributable risks and a prevalence-based approach was used to calculate age- and sex-specific alcohol attributable mortality and resource utilization for a wide range of disorders, and avoided mortality and resource utilization for diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cholelithiasis. The literature provided prevalence of moderate alcohol consumption in Germany by age and sex and relative risks. Direct costs were calculated using routine utilization and expenditure statistics. Indirect costs were calculated using the human capital approach.
Results:  Due to moderate alcohol consumption, 14,457 lives, 205,691 YPL, and 179,964 QALYs were lost, whereas 29,918 lives, 300,382 YPL, and 258,284 QALYs were gained. Up to an age of 55 to 60 (62.5–67.5) years, more lives were lost than gained among men (women), whereas in older age groups more lives were gained than lost. Moderate alcohol consumption caused €3049 million of direct and €2630 million of indirect costs, whereas €2094 million of direct and €2604 million of indirect costs were avoided.
Conclusion:  Despite considerable uncertainty, moderate alcohol consumption seems to result in an overall net effect of gained lives, YPL, and QALYs, realized among the elderly, but overall increased societal costs. Thus, moderate alcohol consumption should still be seen critical, especially among youths.     

Cost-Utility Analysis of Eprosartan Compared to Enalapril in Primary Prevention and Nitrendipine in Secondary Prevention in Europe—The HEALTH Model

Objective:  To investigate the cost-utility of eprosartan versus enalapril (primary prevention) and versus nitrendipine (secondary prevention) on the basis of head-to-head evidence from randomized controlled trials.
Methods:  The HEALTH model (Health Economic Assessment of Life with Teveten^® for Hypertension) is an object-oriented probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model. It combines a Framingham-based risk calculation with a systolic blood pressure approach to estimate the relative risk reduction of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events based on recent meta-analyses. In secondary prevention, an additional risk reduction is modeled for eprosartan according to the results of the MOSES study ("Morbidity and Mortality after Stroke—Eprosartan Compared to Nitrendipine for Secondary Prevention"). Costs and utilities were derived from published estimates considering European country-specific health-care payer perspectives.
Results:  Comparing eprosartan to enalapril in a primary prevention setting the mean costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained were highest in Germany (€24,036) followed by Belgium (€17,863), the UK (€16,364), Norway (€ 13,834), Sweden (€ 11,691) and Spain (€ 7918). In a secondary prevention setting (eprosartan vs. nitrendipine) the highest costs per QALY gained have been observed in Germany (€9136) followed by the UK (€6008), Norway (€1695), Sweden (€907), Spain (€−2054) and Belgium (€−5767).
Conclusions:  Considering a €30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold per QALY gained, eprosartan is cost-effective as compared to enalapril in primary prevention (patients ≥50 years old and a systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg) and cost-effective as compared to nitrendipine in secondary prevention (all investigated patients).     

Cost-effectiveness of nutritional counseling for obese patients and patients at risk of ischemic heart disease

OBJECTIVES: Obesity and dyslipidemia are risk factors for ischemic heart disease, and prevention and treatment in primary care can reduce these risks. The objective of this cost-effectiveness analysis was to compare the costs and effects (in terms of life years gained) of providing nutritional counseling by a general practitioner (GP) or a dietician. METHODS: A total of 60 GPs, who accepted to participate, were randomized either to give nutritional counseling or to refer patients to a dietician for counseling. The life years gained was estimated using a Cox regression model. Costs were estimated on the basis of registered use of time (dieticians) or agreed salaries (GPs). RESULTS: The effect of nutritional counseling comparing GPs and dieticians is greatest when counseling is performed by a GP--0.0919 years versus 0.0274 years. These effects appear to be moderate, but they are significant. It is also proven that the GP group was the most cost-effective-the cost of gaining 1 extra life year was estimated to be 8213 DKK compared with the dietician group, for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated to be 59,987 DKK. CONCLUSIONS: The effects were moderate, but other studies of other patient groups and interventions report effects within the same magnitude. The GP group was the most cost-effective, but it must be concluded that both counseling strategies were relatively cost-effective. Even though the cost of gaining an extra life year was estimated to be 59,987 DKK in the dietician group, this might be an acceptable price.     

Congestive heart failure clinical outcomes study in a private community medical group

BACKGROUND: Although angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor therapy has been shown to improve clinical outcomes of patients with systolic dysfunction, it has been underused or prescribed in inadequate dosages by physicians in the treatment of congestive heart failure. Our goal was to evaluate whether integration of a clinical guideline within a continuous quality improvement program would improve care for patients with congestive heart failure caused by systolic dysfunction. METHODS: All patients of a private community medical group who were admitted to the hospital with congestive heart failure were studied prospectively for 21 months. An internally developed congestive heart failure practice guideline was presented to the group's physicians. The guidelines were available in the hospital computer system and were reinforced at monthly quality improvement meetings. Performance data were reviewed quarterly with the physicians. RESULTS: Rates of classifying systolic vs diastolic dysfunction remained unchanged during the study. Use of ACE inhibitor therapy at the time of discharge improved substantially for patients with systolic dysfunction. Quarterly admissions of patients with systolic dysfunction declined 49% throughout the study period. No improvement was noted in the documentation of specific discharge instructions. CONCLUSIONS: Use of a disease management guideline, ongoing physician education, and feedback of peer performance data to physicians significantly improved the quality and efficiency of care provided to patients with congestive heart failure in an independent, primary care medical group.     

Economic evaluation of cholesterol-related interventions in general practice. An appraisal of the evidence

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate and evaluate published data on cost effectiveness of cholesterol lowering interventions, and how this information could be interpreted in a rational approach of cholesterol management in general practice. DESIGN: A systematic review of the literature. SETTING: No restriction on setting. MATERIALS: Papers reporting on the cost effectiveness or cost utility of prevention of (recurrent) coronary heart disease by reduction of hypercholesterolaemia in adults. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty nine studies, most cost effectiveness analyses, were included. In 24 studies drug interventions only were analysed. Costs of screening to target cholesterol lowering interventions to persons with hypercholesterolaemia were considered in nine studies. Adjustments of the efficacy of the intervention for community effectiveness were described in seven studies. In four studies life years gained were adjusted for quality of life. Despite large variation in the outcomes, there is a constant tendency towards a less favourable cost effectiveness ratio for intervening in persons without coronary heart disease compared with persons with coronary heart disease and for women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: There is lack of data on cost effectiveness of cholesterol lowering interventions in the general practice setting. The cost effectiveness of cholesterol lowering in general practice deteriorates when all relevant costs are taken into account and when efficacy is corrected for community effectiveness. Cholesterol lowering intervention is more cost effective in men compared with women and in patients with coronary heart disease compared with persons without coronary heart disease. Considerations from cost effectiveness analyses should be incorporated into the development and implementation of national cholesterol guidelines for general practitioners. Standardisation of cost effectiveness studies is important for future economic evaluations.     

Decreasing rates of natural deaths in a remote Australian Aboriginal community, 1996–2010

Objective : To examine the trends of all‐cause natural mortality for people aged 15 years and over in a remote Australian Aboriginal community between 1996 and 2010. Methods : The annual population in the community by gender and age group was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). All known deaths and all records of start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for renal failure were recorded between 1996 and 2010. Five‐year aggregated death rates were calculated and the changes in natural mortality over the interval were evaluated. Mortality was compared with those of the Northern Territory (NT) Indigenous and non‐Indigenous people as a whole from 1998 to 2006. Results : Rates of natural deaths were lower in the third interval 2006–2010 relative to the first interval 1996–2000, with higher, but more rapidly falling rates for females than males. Reductions were prominent for both sexes in the 65 and over age groups, but death rates in females of earlier middle age also trended lower. The trends applied whether or not the starting of RRT was considered as a natural death. There was a similar trend in rates of natural death in the aggregate Indigenous population of NT. Conclusions: The downward trends probably reflect improvements in risk factor status since the 1960s, all‐of‐life health interventions, as well as better chronic disease management in the last two decades. The higher death rates in females than males in this community remain unexplained, but the rapid rate of decline of female death rates predicts that this gap will soon be minimised.