Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States

We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.     

Tubal sterilization in the United States, 1994-1996

CONTEXT: Although the number and rate of tubal sterilizations, the settings in which they are performed and the characteristics of women obtaining sterilization procedures provide important information on contraceptive practice and trends in the United States, such data have not been collected and tabulated for manyyears. METHODS: Information on tubal sterilizations from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and the National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery was analyzed to estimate the number and characteristics of women having a tubal sterilization procedure in the United States during the period 1994-1996 and the resulting rates of tubal sterilization. These results were compared with those of previous studies to examine trends in clinical setting, in the timing of the procedure and in patient characteristics. RESULTS: In 1994-1996, more than two million tubal sterilizations were performed, for an average annual rate of 1 1.5 per 1,000 women; half were performed postpartum and half were interval procedures (i. e., were unrelated by timing to a pregnancy). All postpartum procedures were performed during inpatient hospital stays, while 96% of interval procedures were outpatient procedures. Postpartum sterilization rates were higher than interval sterilization rates among women 20-29 years of age; interval sterilization procedures were more common than postpartum procedures at ages 35-49. Sterilization rates were highest in the South. For postpartum procedures, private insurance was the expectedprimary source of payment for 48% and Medicaid was expected to pay for 41 %; for interval sterilization procedures, private insurance was the expected primary source of payment for 68% and Medicaid for 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatient tubal sterilizations andprocedures using laparoscopy have increased substantially since the last comprehensive analysis of tubal sterilization in 1987, an indication of the effect of technical advances on the provision of this service. Continued surveillance of both inpatient and outpatient procedures is necessary to monitor the role of tubal sterilization in contraceptive practice.     

Estimates of incidence and costs of intestinal infectious diseases in the United States

The incidence of acute episodes of intestinal infectious diseases in the United States was estimated through analysis of community-based studies and national interview surveys. Their differing results were reconciled by adjusting the study population age distributions in the community-based studies, by excluding those cases that also showed respiratory symptoms, and by accounting for structural differences in the surveys. The reconciliation process provided an estimate of 99 million acute cases of either vomiting or diarrhea, or both, each year in this country, half of which involved more than a full day of restricted activity. The analysis was limited to cases of acute gastrointestinal diseases with vomiting or diarrhea but without respiratory symptoms. Physicians were consulted for 8.2 million illnesses; 250,000 of these required hospitalization. In 1985, hospitalizations incurred $560 million in medical costs and $200 million in lost productivity. Nonhospitalized cases (7.9 million) for which physicians were consulted incurred $690 million in medical costs and $2.06 billion in lost productivity. More than 90 million cases for which no physician was consulted cost an estimated $19.5 billion in lost productivity. The estimates excluded such costs as death, pain and suffering, lost leisure time, financial losses to food establishments, and legal expenses. According to these estimates, medical costs and lost productivity from acute intestinal infectious diseases amount to a minimum of about $23 billion a year in the United States.     

Prevalence and trends in oral contraceptive use in premenopausal females ages 12-54 years, United States, 1971-80.

Data from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II) were analyzed to estimate the prevalence of oral contraceptive use in the United States, 1976-80. The overall unadjusted prevalence of oral contraceptive use was 16.7 per cent for premenopausal females ages 12-54 years (19.2 per cent for ages 15-44 years). Approximately 8.7 million females (95 per cent confidence interval, 6.9-10.5 million) were oral contraceptive users at the midpoint of NHANES II (March 1978). Comparison to the NHANES I, conducted in 1971-74, indicated a stable number of overall oral contraceptive users in the US population during the 1970s, with shifts in certain age groups: oral contraceptive use increased for females ages 12-19 years and decreased for females ages 20-49 years. The overall age-adjusted prevalences indicated a 2 per cent (95 per cent CI, 0.2-3.8 per cent) decline in oral contraceptive use from the early to the late 1970s. The NHANES provides comparative data and supports findings from another national survey showing a decrease in the per cent of females using oral contraceptives during 1973-82. Trends in oral contraceptive use are also presented by race, poverty level, rural-urban residence, marital status, and education level.     

Fire- and flame-related occupational fatalities in the United States, 1980-1994

The National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system recorded 1518 fire- and flame-related occupational fatalities among the civilian workforce in the United States between 1980 and 1994. The fatalities resulted from 1221 separate incidents, of which 122 involved more than one victim and accounted for 419 of 1518 deaths. Nearly 4 of 10 fatalities resulting from a multiple-victim fire were workers in the manufacturing industry. Similarly, the highest frequency of fatalities in single-victim events, over one fourth, were in manufacturing. For one fourth of the fatalities within each event category, the usual occupation of the deceased was a precision production, craft, and repair worker. Although this study sheds light on selected characteristics of these fatalities, additional research on the causal factors associated with single- and multiple-victim events is needed to present specific recommendations for prevention efforts.     

Estimates of the direct and indirect costs of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States, 1985, 1986, and 1991

This study presents three estimates--ranging from low to high--of the direct and indirect costs of the AIDS epidemic in the United States in 1985, 1986, and 1991, based on prevalence estimates provided by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). According to what the authors consider their best estimates, personal medical care costs of AIDS in current dollars will rise from $630 million in 1985 to $1.1 billion in 1986 to $8.5 billion in 1991. Nonpersonal costs (for research, screening, education, and general support services) are estimated to rise from $319 million in 1985 to $542 million in 1986 to $2.3 billion in 1991. Indirect costs attributable to loss of productivity resulting from morbidity and premature mortality are estimated to rise from $3.9 billion in 1985 to $7.0 billion in 1986 to $55.6 billion in 1991. While estimated personal medical care costs of AIDS represent only 0.2 percent in 1985 and 0.3 percent in 1986 of estimated total personal health care expenditures for the U.S. population, they represent 1.4 percent of estimated personal health care expenditures in 1991. Similarly, while estimated indirect costs of AIDS represent 1.2 percent in 1985 and 2.1 percent in 1986 of the estimated indirect costs of all illness, they are estimated to rise to almost 12 percent in 1991. Estimates of personal medical care costs were based on data from various sources around the United States concerning average number of hospitalizations per year, average length of hospital stay, average charge per hospital day, and average outpatient charges of persons with AIDS. For estimating the indirect costs the human capital method was used, and it was assumed that average wages and labor force participation rates of persons with AIDS were the same as those for the general population by age and sex.     

Estimates of the direct and indirect costs of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States, 1985, 1986, and 1991

This study presents three estimates ranging from low to high of the direct and indirect costs of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States in 1985, 1986, and 1991, based on prevalence estimates provided by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). According to the author's best estimates, personal medical care costs of AIDS in current dollars will rise from $630 million in 1985 and $1.1 billion in 1986 and $8.5 billion in 1991. Nonpersonal costs (for research, screening, education, and general support services) are estimated to rise from $319 million in 1985 to $542 million in 1986 to $2.3 billion in 1991. Indirect costs attributable to loss of productivity resulting from morbidity and premature mortality are estimated to rise from $3.9 billion in 1985 to $7.0 billion in 1986 to $55.6 billion in 1991. While estimated personal medical care costs of AIDS in 1985 and 1986 represent only 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, of such estimated expenditures for the U.S. population in these 2 years, they represent 1.4% of these estimated costs in 1991. Similarly, while estimated indirect costs of AIDS represent 1.2% in 1985 and 2.1% in 1986 of the estimated indirect costs of all illness, they are projected to rise to almost 12% in 1991. For estimating the indirect costs, the human capital method was used, and it was assumed that average wages and labor force participation rates of persons with AIDS were the same as those for the general population by age and sex.     

Social capital and violence in the United States, 1974-1993

Social capital is a characteristic of communities. Cross-sectional studies have shown that social capital is inversely associated with homicide and violent crime. We hypothesized that variations in social capital in US states over time can predict variations in regional homicide mortality both across and within time periods. We analyzed serial cross-sectional data for measures of social capital and age-adjusted homicide rates between 1974 and 1993. We used perception of social trust and per capita membership in voluntary associations, obtained from responses to the General Social Surveys, as the principal measures of social capital. We controlled for potential confounding by mean levels of income, urbanization, and region. Measures of perceived trust were strongly inversely correlated with homicide rates in an aggregate cross-sectional analysis (r=-0.51, p<0.001) and also within each time period. Social capital was an independent predictor of rates of violence when controlling for income, region, and urbanization (p<0.001). Homicide rates also predicted levels of social capital in adjusted models (p<0.001). To investigate directionality of this relationship we developed Markov transition matrices that described the change in the states' levels of social capital and homicide across time intervals. Analysis of the transitional probabilities confirmed that a simple unidirectional association between social capital and violence was not sufficient to describe this association. There is likely an impact of violence on levels of perceived trust in communities that complements the hypothesized effect of social capital on homicide. We conclude that the relationship between social capital and violence over time is non-linear and dynamic. More complex analytic models describing the relationship between violence and ecological social determinants need to be considered.     

Trends in epilepsy mortality in England and Wales and the United States, 1950-1994

The aim of this study was to analyze time trends in epilepsy mortality in England and Wales and the United States between 1950 and 1994. The authors calculated age- and sex-specific epilepsy mortality rates for the nine quinquennia from 1950-1954 to 1990-1994. Mortality rates were modeled as a function of age, period of death, and cohort of birth by using Poisson regression techniques. From 1950 to 1994, there were more than 110,000 deaths from epilepsy in the two countries. The secular trends in mortality were similar for both sexes and in both countries. Among people younger than age 20 years, epilepsy mortality declined steeply after 1950. For young and middle-aged adults, the rate of decline was lower. In the geriatric population, mortality declined between 1950 and 1974 but then increased. The Poisson model showed pronounced birth cohort effects. In the United States, epilepsy mortality fell with each successive birth cohort after 1905. In England and Wales, there was a similar decline in birth cohort mortality after 1905 for women but not until after 1950 for men. The pronounced birth cohort effect supports explanations that focus on antenatal and developmental factors as the cause for the decline in epilepsy mortality in all but the oldest age groups between 1950 and 1994.     

Estimates of pregnancies and pregnancy rates for the United States, 1976-85.

After increasing by 9 per cent in the period 1976-80 in the United States, pregnancy rates declined by 4 per cent between 1980 and 1984 (from 111.9 to 107.3 pregnancies per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years). Between 1984 and 1985, the rate rose by less than 1 per cent to 108.2. More detailed data by age and race, available only through 1983, indicate that the decline in the 1980-83 period was not shared by all age groups. For example, pregnancy rates continued to increase for women in their thirties, and teenage pregnancy remained substantially the same. In 1983, 61 per cent of all pregnancies ended in live birth, 26 per cent in induced abortion, and 13 per cent in fetal loss. Pregnancy rates in that year were two-thirds higher for women of races other than White than for White women, and pregnancies of other-than-White women were more likely to terminate as an induced abortion or fetal loss. However, White teenagers and teenagers of other races were about equally likely to have their pregnancy end in induced abortion or fetal loss.     

Occupational injury deaths of 16- and 17-year-olds in the United States.

Data from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system were used to analyze occupational injury deaths of civilian 16- and 17-year-olds during 1980 through 1989. There were 670 deaths; the rate was 5.11 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. The leading causes of death were incidents involving motor vehicles and machines, electrocution, and homicide. Workers 16 and 17 years old appear to be at greater risk than adults for occupational death by electrocution, suffocation, drowning, poisoning, and natural and environmental factors. Improved enforcement of and compliance with federal child labor laws, evaluation of the appropriateness of currently permitted activities, and education are encouraged.     

Homicide mortality in the United States, 1935-1994: age, period, and cohort effects

The authors analyzed homicide mortality data for the United States from 1935 to 1994, to delineate temporal trends and birth cohort patterns. This study included 850,822 homicide-attributed deaths documented by the National Center for Health Statistics, and incorporated graphical presentation, median polish, and Poisson regression modeling in an age-period-cohort analysis. Death rates from homicide in the United States doubled in the past four decades, with most of the increase having occurred during the 1960s and early 1970s. Poisson regression models confirmed that the rise of homicide mortality in both men and women was largely attributable to a significant period effect between 1960 and 1974. No discernible cohort patterns were found among women. However, homicide rates for recent male birth cohorts appeared to peak at younger ages and at higher levels. A significant increase in homicide mortality risk beginning with males born around 1965 was found by examining the residuals of median polish, and the second-order changes in the regression coefficients from the age-period-cohort model. The hike of homicide mortality during 1985 and 1994 was explained by this cohort effect. Increased prevalence of substance abuse and availability of firearms are two likely factors underlying this disturbing cohort pattern.     

Blood lead concentrations in children and method of water fluoridation in the United States, 1988-1994

Some have hypothesized that community water containing sodium silicofluoride and hydrofluosilicic acid may increase blood lead (PbB) concentrations in children by leaching of lead from water conduits and by increasing absorption of lead from water. Our analysis aimed to evaluate the relation between water fluoridation method and PbB concentrations in children. We used PbB concentration data (n=9,477) from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) for children 1-16 years of age, merged with water fluoridation data from the 1992 Fluoridation Census. The main outcome measure was geometric mean PbB concentration, and covariates included age, sex, race/ethnicity, poverty status, urbanicity, and length of time living in residence. Geometric mean PbB concentrations for each water fluoridation method were 2.40 microg/dL (sodium silicofluoride), 2.34 microg/dL (hydrofluosilicic acid), 1.78 microg/dL (sodium fluoride), 2.24 microg/dL (natural fluoride and no fluoride), and 2.14 microg/dL (unknown/mixed status). In multiple linear and logistic regression, there was a statistical interaction between water fluoridation method and year in which dwelling was built. Controlling for covariates, water fluoridation method was significant only in the models that included dwellings built before 1946 and dwellings of unknown age. Across stratum-specific models for dwellings of known age, neither hydrofluosilicic acid nor sodium silicofluoride were associated with higher geometric mean PbB concentrations or prevalence values. Given these findings, our analyses, though not definitive, do not support concerns that silicofluorides in community water systems cause higher PbB concentrations in children. Current evidence does not provide a basis for changing water fluoridation practices, which have a clear public health benefit.     

The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994

OBJECTIVES: Rainfall and runoff have been implicated in site-specific waterborne disease outbreaks. Because upward trends in heavy precipitation in the United States are projected to increase with climate change, this study sought to quantify the relationship between precipitation and disease outbreaks. METHODS: The US Environmental Protection Agency waterborne disease database, totaling 548 reported outbreaks from 1948 through 1994, and precipitation data of the National Climatic Data Center were used to analyze the relationship between precipitation and waterborne diseases. Analyses were at the watershed level, stratified by groundwater and surface water contamination and controlled for effects due to season and hydrologic region. A Monte Carlo version of the Fisher exact test was used to test for statistical significance. RESULTS: Fifty-one percent of waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded by precipitation events above the 90th percentile (P = .002), and 68% by events above the 80th percentile (P = .001). Outbreaks due to surface water contamination showed the strongest association with extreme precipitation during the month of the outbreak; a 2-month lag applied to groundwater contamination events. CONCLUSIONS: The statistically significant association found between rainfall and disease in the United States is important for water managers, public health officials, and risk assessors of future climate change.     

Violent deaths in the United States, 1900–1975: Relationships between suicide,homicide and accidental deaths

Time trends are presented for suicide, homicide and accident mortality rates in the United States, 1900–1975. These data suggest that national mortality rates for suicide, homicide and motor- vehicle accidents tend to be parallel over time. Non-motor-vehicle accidents, while showing some fluctuations similar to those of other forms of violent deaths, manifest a more general decrease throughout the century. In addition, suicide rates tend to be significantly correlated over time with homicide, motor- vehicle and non-motor-vehicle accident death rates for most race and sex combinations. These results need to be viewed with caution due to the methodologic problems inherent in using national mortality data. However, the findings raise serious questions about the traditional understanding of the relationships between the various forms of violent death in populations; in particular, the popular view that suicide and homicide are inversely related in populations is questioned. The explanatory usefulness of conceptualizing violent deaths as reflecting self-destructive tendencies is discussed.     

Temporal and regional trends in the prevalence of healthy lifestyle characteristics: United States, 1994-2007

Objectives. We examined temporal and regional trends in the prevalence of health lifestyles in the United States.Methods. We used 1994 to 2007 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to assess 4 healthy lifestyle characteristics: having a healthy weight, not smoking, consuming fruits and vegetables, and engaging in physical activity. The concurrent presence of all 4 characteristics was defined as a healthy overall lifestyle. We used logistic regression to assess temporal and regional trends.Results. The percentages of individuals who did not smoke (4% increase) and had a healthy weight (10% decrease) showed the strongest temporal changes from 1994 to 2007. There was little change in fruit and vegetable consumption or physical activity. The prevalence of healthy lifestyles increased minimally over time and varied modestly across regions; in 2007, percentages were higher in the Northeast (6%) and West (6%) than in the South (4%) and Midwest (4%).Conclusions. Because of the large increases in overweight and the declines in smoking, there was little net change in the prevalence of healthy lifestyles. Despite regional differences, the prevalence of healthy lifestyles across the United States remains very low.In developed countries, and increasingly in developing countries, chronic diseases account for the majority of the population disease burden in terms of mortality, morbidity, and medical expenditures.1 Most major chronic diseases share multiple, common lifestyle characteristics or behaviors, particularly smoking, inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity.^2,3 There is now an overwhelming body of clinical and epidemiological evidence illustrating the dramatic impact of a healthy lifestyle on reducing all-cause mortality and preventing chronic diseases such as coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and cancer.^4–9The definition of a healthy lifestyle varies across studies but generally includes a combination of healthy lifestyle characteristics such as having a healthy weight, not smoking, and engaging in regular physical activity. Despite the known benefits of following a healthy lifestyle, the available data consistently show that very few Americans are able to do so. Previous work has shown, depending on the definition of healthy lifestyle used, that only between 3% and 10% of US residents have a healthy lifestyle^10,11 despite the presence of substantial public health investments in programs designed to promote healthy lifestyles over the past few decades.^12–14 Some of these investments have resulted in sustained improvements in individual healthy lifestyle characteristics, particularly tobacco use,^14,15 whereas others, such as physical activity promotion and obesity prevention programs, have met with limited success.^16,17In the United States, strong temporal trends in individual healthy lifestyle characteristics—particularly declines in tobacco use and increases in obesity—have been described.^14,16,17 Marked regional differences in the prevalence of certain individual healthy lifestyle characteristics have also been demonstrated. For example, in 2007 the prevalence of cigarette smoking ranged from 9% to 31% across states, and the prevalence of recommended physical activity ranged from 31% to 61%.¹⁸Although much information exists on individual healthy lifestyle characteristics, there has been little reported on temporal and regional differences in the prevalence of individuals with healthy lifestyles. Using Reeves and Rafferty''s definition of a healthy lifestyle¹⁰—the presence of 4 modifiable healthy lifestyle characteristics—we examined temporal and regional US trends in the prevalence of healthy lifestyles as well as these 4 individual characteristics from 1994 to 2007.